FT: Ukraine will be able to liberate Kherson before the end of the year, but no more

04 August 2022, 23:07 | Ukraine
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The limited supply of Western weapons has forced Ukraine to focus on regaining control of Kherson, which fell under Russian control in early March, rather than trying to liberate territories in the Donbas..

There, the Ukrainian military still lacks weapons and fighters to carry out effective operations, three officials with knowledge of the details of the situation told the Financial Times.. The Ukrainian army uses HIMARS to destroy Russian weapons depots and make it harder for Russian troops to provide units in Kherson. Thus, the Ukrainian defenders are trying to deprive the enemy of the fire superiority that helped the Kremlin’s army to advance in the Donbass..

“Without support lines, the Russians simply cannot maintain such a level of shelling, they consume a lot of resources. They will have to use infantry, MANPADS, relatively light weapons, ”an unnamed Ukrainian official explained to the publication..

“If and when that happens, the offensive on Kherson will be significant and could give Ukraine momentum and an opportunity to rebuild the narrative,” said Samuel Cranny-Evans, a military analyst at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)..

Kherson is the only major city outside the Donbass that Russia has managed to take control of. It is located on the right bank of the Dnieper. The remoteness of the city from supply routes makes it an attractive target for the extended Ukrainian army.. A loose front line makes the 49th Army of the Russian Federation, deployed on the right bank of the Dnieper, vulnerable to encirclement, the British Ministry of Defense said.

“Kherson is the population center with the greatest political significance of all that was occupied by Russia. And now it is actually cut off from other occupied territories, ”the British Ministry of Defense explained..

In Ukraine, they say that a little less than 50 villages in the Kherson region have already been liberated. But Ukrainian officials fear the battle to regain control of the city could be the only big counterattack that can be fought before winter.. In Kyiv, they complain that HIMARS installations are arriving slowly. And besides, Washington requires that Ukrainian forces use them only within their territory.. This makes it difficult to neutralize critical Russian infrastructure, such as the 19-kilometer bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and Russia..

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Washington has so far rejected Kyiv's requests for long-range missiles capable of hitting targets in Russia.. The American side fears escalation. Ukrainian officials told the Financial Times they need to ration the use of ammunition to a few rounds a day..

“We know all the coordinates, all the locations of Russian warehouses and command centers.

The lack of ammunition limits Ukraine's ability to truly make a difference on the ground,"

“We can effectively use any supply to Ukraine. But it will be prudent to calculate and compare these deliveries with our strategic needs.. In this case, we do not even have 30% of what we need. We do not expect to be able to obtain the necessary capabilities to plan a decisive counter-offensive this year.. Our big plans will have to be postponed until next year when stockpiles of weapons become larger,” said another Ukrainian official..




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