Politico: The first ship with grain left the port of Ukraine, what's next?

02 August 2022, 01:14 | Ukraine
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This morning, the first ship brought grain from Ukraine in accordance with the agreement on unblocking routes in the Black Sea, which Kyiv and Moscow signed with the mediation of Turkey and the UN. The ship will pass through a corridor that both sides have promised to keep safe..

The agreement is important for Ukraine as a major food exporter, as well as for the world, especially for food import-dependent countries that are facing shortages.. Russia vows not to attack merchant ships. But many, including Ukrainian officials, fear that Vladimir Putin will not fulfill his end of the deal..

Politico writes about this, recalling that the cargo ship Razoni under the flag of Sierra Leone took away 26,000 tons of Ukrainian corn, as reported by the Ukrainian Ministry of Infrastructure.

" The first cargo of grain left Odessa after months of the Russian blockade,” Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba tweeted..

Razoni is heading to the port of Tripoli in Lebanon, as evidenced by maritime traffic data. The ship is expected to arrive on Tuesday at 21:00 local time. This is a big achievement? Yes. The departure of the first ship with grain from the Ukrainian port is a big step, indicating that diplomacy between the warring countries is possible. The UN announced today that the World Food Program will charter a ship with wheat in accordance with the agreement. There is growing hope that Ukrainian grain will now go where it is most needed. This is a big test for the UN and its ability to intervene and mitigate international conflicts.. The organization's secretary-general, Antonio Guterres, has invested heavily in making this agreement happen after he announced in March that the world must act to prevent a "

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The grain deal also gives Turkey, another Black Sea power, a brokering role.. A coordinating center will be located in Istanbul that will monitor the movement of ships and participate in " Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said the agreement could become the basis for truce and wider peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine.. Peace talks seem unlikely so far. But if the grain agreements are implemented, both countries will have a platform to continue the dialogue..

Will Russia stick to the agreement? unknown. Recently, Russia has repeatedly violated and spat on international agreements.. She finally invaded Ukraine. Then why should Moscow be interested in fulfilling the grain export treaty with the country it has invaded

The deal gives Russia significant leverage over Ukraine, which desperately needs access to the Black Sea to maintain exports..

In exchange for signing the grain agreement, Russia received a promise that the UN would " This means that Western sanctions should not hinder Russian exports.. And in Moscow they insist that the ban on insuring Russian ships and disconnection from international payment systems just hinder this.. Moscow may also use the grain agreement as a propaganda tool to portray itself as a guarantor of food security for African countries.. In fact, this is exactly what Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov did in July.

But Russia has already begun to test the boundaries of the grain deal, shelling Odessa and its port infrastructure the very next day after the signing of the agreements.. And on Sunday, a Russian missile killed Oleksiy Vadatursky, the owner of the Ukrainian agricultural company Nibulon.. She hit the house of a businessman in Nikolaev. What does this mean for the food crisis?

It won't end. But if Ukraine starts exporting its grain in large quantities again, this will help the cause.. World hunger has increased at an alarming rate. And the Russian war against Ukraine will further aggravate it. The delivery of 26 thousand tons of corn is a drop in the bucket when you think about what can be exported in the next 4 months. About 20 million tons of grain stuck in Ukrainian elevators. And another 60 million tons are expected to be harvested this summer.. If everything goes according to plan, about 4-5 million tons of grain can leave the port of Odessa every month until November, when the parties to the agreement will decide whether to keep it or not..

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If more grain is available on the market, this means that global prices will become more stable or even lower.. Resuming exports could give Ukraine badly needed cash. If Kyiv successfully sells 20 million tons of grain, it will receive at least a billion dollars in foreign exchange income, said Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov. The emptying of the elevators will also ease the pressure on Ukrainian farmers who find it difficult to find space to store crops that have just begun to be harvested..

But worries remain:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned over the weekend that Ukraine's harvest this year would be " The UN also noted that the Russian war against Ukraine is just one of the causes of global hunger and poverty.. Other factors are the pandemic, prolonged lack of investment in rural areas and severe weather conditions.. And they're harder to fight. Cloudy prices for mineral fertilizers are linked to the energy crisis, which also threatens future harvests not only in Ukraine, but around the world..




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