The current pace of the Russian offensive practically does not differ from what it was during the so-called operational pause, which the Russian army took after the occupation of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Therefore, it is possible that the Russians will not be able to occupy Slavyansk and Bakhmut. This conclusion was made by analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW)..

“Russian forces carried out several limited and very localized ground attacks on July 21. The current Russian operational pace does not differ significantly from that during the officially announced operational pause between July 7 and 16,” the Institute concluded..

They write that, both then and now, Russian troops continued to make minor attacks northwest of Slavyansk and around the Seversk and Bakhmut region, without capturing a single decisive territory..

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In particular, since July 16, Russian forces have continued local attacks east of Seversk and east and south of Bakhmut, but as of July 21 they have not made any significant territorial gains in these areas.. Moreover, their advance was somewhat slowed down..

“The Russian grouping northwest of Slovyansk actually carried out fewer ground attacks along the border of the Kharkiv-Donetsk region than during the official operational pause. The lack of successful ground attacks outside of the Slovyansk, Seversk and Bakhmut areas is consistent with the ISW assessment that the Russian offensive is likely to end without the capture of Slovyansk or Bakhmut.

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Recall that the Russian army is bogged down in local battles in small towns, ISW also reported in a preliminary review.