Russian war against Ukraine has been going on for six months. And many analysts suggest that by winter it will come to a bloody dead end.. But several unpredictable military, political and diplomatic factors could change the course of this brutal war of attrition..

Wars are defined by basic variables: weapons and their capabilities, leadership and its impact on national unity, and alliances that can provide economic and diplomatic support to combatants.. All of these factors influence the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.. And in recent weeks there have been small but very important changes, each of which can determine the outcome of the war.. American journalist and writer David Ignatius writes about this in an article for the Washington Post..

One of the new factors is the successful use on the battlefield of American HIMARS systems, which in recent weeks have destroyed Russian command centers and warehouses in Ukraine.. After a long retreat in the Donbas, Ukrainian troops again feel combat confidence. Ukrainian generals complain: HIMARS are so effective that they should have been sent a few months ago. Ignatius was told about this by an unnamed European official..

The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Valery Zaluzhny, said that the Ukrainian defenders " And partly this was done thanks to HIMARS. The Pentagon hesitated to send these weapons to Ukraine until there was confirmation that the Ukrainian military was capable of using them effectively.. Now he's absolutely sure of it..

“I think this weapon had a major impact on events at the front,” an unnamed Pentagon official said last week..

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NATO will prioritize sending even more HIMARS to Ukraine over the summer and fall to build on ongoing success. US and European officials mobilize defense companies to speed up weapons production. Western allies are also trying to expand the training of the Ukrainian military. UK plans to train 10,000 soldiers every 120 days. Other countries will multiply this figure.

“The Ukrainian army can feel confident to expand its offensive in the direction of Kherson in the summer. But the real impact of the new weapons and training could be felt next spring after an expected winter lull.. European officials say Ukraine will be in better shape at the time to repel more Russian attacks and possibly even liberate some territories..

Leadership is key in any conflict. In this case, both Ukraine and Russia enjoy the unifying, powerful leadership of their presidents.. All predictions that Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Volodymyr Putin will fall under the pressure of internal disagreement with their policies turned out to be wrong.. Polls show support for both presidents is higher than it was before the war. In Ukraine, poll results released by the International Republican Institute in May showed support for Zelensky rose to 94%.. And the Ukrainian sociological group Rating found out that the popularity of the Ukrainian president tripled from December to February - from 31% to 91%.. In Russia, the Levada Center, whose findings are generally considered accurate, reported that the approval rate for Putin's actions in Russia has risen to 83% since January, or 14% of the level it was before the start of the Russian invasion..

Ignatius writes that Zelensky leads a " He rejected pre-war American calls to form a unity government. But until that time, the Ukrainian president had avoided any major internal upheavals or witch hunts.. But on Sunday, he unexpectedly fired Prosecutor General Irina Venediktova and SBU head Ivan Bakanov.. Zelenskiy said they were not effective enough in prosecuting Russian collaborators and admitted that there are still many people in the country who remain disloyal to Ukraine despite the war.. The author writes that these decisions were a stark reminder of backstage tensions.. If Zelensky makes more impulsive changes in his administration, it could undermine the unity that has become one of his most valuable assets..

American writer and author of the World War II trilogy, Rick Atkinson, has an important warning for any wartime leader: “Changes in top public positions in the midst of war usually speak of stress fractures at the top, either due to a clash of egos of different people, or. This warning also applies to Putin.

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As for alliances, Putin's dreams of reshaping the world order fell apart as quickly as his plan to quickly overthrow the Zelensky regime.. The Russian autocrat failed to break up NATO, he revived it and convinced Sweden and Finland to join the alliance, which put additional pressure on the Russian northern flank.

But the cunning Putin tried to improve his position south this week by traveling to Iran to meet with Ayatollah Khamenei and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan..

The trip to Tehran was an ingenious attempt to gain political influence for a leader who knows that the brute force of the Russian military alone can bury Russia in conflict for decades.. It also served as a reminder of the diplomatic and military changes that could change the current dire predictions that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will stall.. The outcome of this terrible war remains unknown..