When will the Russian war against Ukraine end How will this conflict affect the international order When peace returns to Europe?

Observers reflect on these questions. But the honest answer is that no one really knows. Most likely, the war will last for years. Ukraine will be devastated and Russia will be weakened. But the wars end. And there is a clear set of conditions that should help end a Russian invasion in the future..

Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt writes about this on the pages of the Washington Post, adding that the first change should take place in the Kremlin.. It's Vladimir Putin's war. The decision to invade Ukraine belongs to him and only him. His vision of the revival of " He used propaganda and mass repression to mobilize support for his invasion and minimize criticism among Russians.. But Bildt writes that his personal conversations with Russians who have recently left the country showed that there is a complete lack of enthusiasm among Russian elites.. Now they don't want to accept defeat, but most of them say they would never start this war..

Fighting will continue, and territorial gains will become increasingly difficult to hold. Putin may once or twice agree to a ceasefire, temporarily satisfied with less. But no one should let him fool everyone. Putin's grip on power. And this means that he will try to bring the war to the end in order to realize the great ambitions of Russia that he invented..

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But it's entirely possible that Putin, now 69, won't live long enough to see his ideas come to fruition.. Nobody knows what will happen after him. There is no obvious potential successor with political power to stop a dubious and unpopular war in many quarters. At the same time, it is unlikely that Putin's successor will share his obsession with Ukraine.. The prospect of establishing a long-term peace will appear only after the Russian autocrat is gone.. But removing Putin from the scene is not enough. The second and no less important condition is the need to lay the foundation for the stability and security of Ukraine.. If Ukraine becomes a failed state with institutions and an economy that is unable to function, and a very fragmented political arena, peace will be unattainable.

If Ukraine slides into chaos, the Kremlin, even without Putin, will be ready to continue to interfere in its affairs. At the same time, the appetite of Europe and the United States to maintain support will begin to evaporate.. It is critical to support Ukraine in the military field now. But the willingness of the EU to live up to its commitments to open the way for Ukrainian accession to the organization will be more important in the future.. Accession to the EU is not a panacea and not an easy process. But it should become a beacon that will support Ukraine on the path of stability and sustainability.. It will take years. But the pace of the process will depend on the ability of Ukrainians themselves to meet the challenge of implementing the necessary reforms..

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Ukraine will also need big investments and support. But progress will be impossible or insufficient without security.

If NATO membership is taken off the agenda, then strong bilateral commitments will be needed to help Ukraine build a credible defense. The discussion of such guarantees should take place in parallel with the recovery process.. The conflict in Ukraine has been going on for almost two decades. But now it is in its most acute, dangerous and decisive kinetic phase.. Europe and the world's democracies must make financial, economic and political commitments to ensure that Ukraine repels the Russian threat and becomes stronger and more prosperous than it was before..