FT: Ukraine needs more HIMARS to turn the tide of war

06 July 2022, 22:41 | Ukraine
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After Russia occupied the city of Lisichansk, virtually the entire Lugansk region was occupied. Vladimir Putin praised this result as a great victory. But military experts say the Russian success is more symbolic than strategic..

The Financial Times writes about this, adding that the Russian autocrat still has a long way to go to " Lugansk region is only half of the region. On Monday, Putin ordered his troops to advance into the Donetsk region, where the Ukrainian army still controls Sloviansk, Kramatorsk and Bakhmut.. To capture the region, Russian forces need to break into heavily fortified cities located 50-70 kilometers from Lysichansk, and then the same amount more to reach the administrative border.

Despite Putin's order to advance, analysts and Ukrainian advisers say the war is likely to enter a new phase in which Kyiv's troops will attempt to use advanced weaponry donated by the West to cut off Russian invaders from supply lines and destroy their ammunition depots and field bases.. The occupation of the entire Luhansk region was a significant breakthrough in the Russian campaign in Donbas and a demonstration that the Russian military machine, grinding everything in its path with dense artillery shelling, still has momentum despite heavy losses.. Lysichansk fell faster than some Ukrainian military advisers expected.

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But when the Kremlin restarted its offensive in Donbas in mid-April, it expected to encircle and kill or capture tens of thousands of Ukrainian JFO fighters in a fatal blow to Ukraine's defenses.. It didn't happen. And even when the Russian army scaled back its ambitions and tried to set up a smaller pocket for the Ukrainian forces, it still failed..

“The enemy wanted not only to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions within the administrative boundaries. He wanted to achieve this by taking Ukrainian troops into the cauldron. The goal was to surround and destroy our groups abroad. We continued our operations in Severodonetsk and Lisichansk until the exhaustion of the Russian military force. But after they pulled together troops that greatly outnumbered ours, it was necessary to retreat in order to avoid the boiler,” explained retired General Igor Romanenko, who was the former Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff.

The head of the Center for Defense Reforms, Alexander Danilyuk, pointed out that Russian forces seized a significant part of the Lugansk region immediately after the invasion began in February. But it was difficult for the aggressor to occupy the last fifth of the region because of the resistance of the Ukrainian army.. Danilyuk believes that as they move further west, Russian forces are likely to face even more resistance.. Kramatorsk and Slavyansk have been well fortified over the past 8 years. Russia will try to get within artillery range in order to tightly shell Ukrainian positions. Former Ukrainian Air Force officer and Razumkov Center expert Oleksiy Melnik told the publication that no matter how powerful the fortifications are, they will not withstand heavy Russian artillery shelling and bombing.. In the Lugansk region, Russian guns fired tens of thousands of shells a day.

Melnyk noted that in order to stop or at least slow down Russia's " In particular, American HIMARS systems can help with this.. So far, the Ukrainian defenders have only four such installations at their disposal.. But thanks to the ability to accurately destroy targets at a distance of 70 kilometers, they are already affecting the situation on the battlefield.. Ukrainian rocket attacks heavily damaged a major Russian air base near Melitopol on Sunday. Ukraine also struck at the armed formations in the occupied part of the Donetsk region. Kyiv needs a lot more HIMARS to turn the tide of the war.

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“If Ukraine has more ability to destroy land supply lines and ammunition depots, as well as destroy artillery positions, Russia will have to adjust its plans or significantly change them,” Melnyk said..

In addition to a lack of ammunition for artillery, Ukraine suffers from numerous vulnerabilities, including a lack of well-trained infantry and armored vehicles to carry out offensive operations.. Defenders lack secure communications and the ability to detect and destroy Russian electronic warfare, says Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) report. Russia also suffers from a shortage of soldiers and modern weapons. Because of this, she becomes increasingly dependent on artillery firepower.. Putin's order to send troops from the Lugansk region to "

Meanwhile, Ukrainian counterattacks in the direction of Kherson put pressure on Russian forces..

The publication writes that a Ukrainian offensive in the city itself is unlikely due to the risk of a large number of civilian casualties.. But Ukraine can cordon off Russian troops "

“Russia's problem is that it does not have sufficient forces to protect both directions: east and south. The Ukrainian side will demonstrate its intention to play on two fronts. For Ukraine, the south is more important because it is about access to the sea and export ports,” said Mykhailo Samus, director of the New Geopolitics Research Network, who served in the Ukrainian Armed Forces for 12 years..




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