FT: Ukraine is losing territories while the West argues what "

13 June 2022, 18:10 | Ukraine
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At the start of the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson asked one of his generals what it takes " In response, he heard only a counter question, what kind of case in question.. The White House later determined that victory would be a successful demonstration to the "

Now, when it comes to supporting Ukraine in the war with Russia, Western states are again trying to define victory as “the absence of defeat,” writes Financial Times columnist Gideon Rahman in his article.. In Kyiv, they are afraid that they will be given enough help so that they can continue to fight, but not defeat Russia.. This is a dire prospect at a time when Ukrainian cities are being devastated and the Ukrainian army is losing hundreds of soldiers every day trying to contain the Russian advance..

Recently, US President Joe Biden published an article in which he identified the preservation of a free and independent Ukraine as the main American goal.. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also often said that Russia should not win. But he also never said Ukraine would win.. A spokesman for President Emmanuel Macron said France wants Ukraine to prevail, but the French leader himself has yet to utter those words..

At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson bluntly stated that " Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stressed: " The difference between those who call for a Ukrainian victory and those who confine themselves to saying that Russia “should not win” is much greater than the choice of verbal nuances.. It dictates critical decisions about what weapons to hand over to Ukraine and when to move forward with peace talks.. Estonian protest against "

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Behind these views lies a different perception of the threat.. Those who consider Russian imperialism the main danger are ready to call for a Ukrainian victory. This camp includes Poland, the UK, the Baltic States and Finland. Those who are most afraid of a war between Russia and the West will only say that Moscow “should not win”. They worry about the possibility that a clear Ukrainian victory could provoke direct conflict between Russia and the West or Russian use of nuclear weapons.. In this camp, France and Germany.

The US is actually positioned somewhere in the middle, trying to balance its response between both threats while transferring military aid to Ukraine.. The Biden administration is dominated by the belief that, after overly fearful of nuclear conflict at the start of the war, the West is now in danger of worrying too little about the threat.. Russian military doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons in the event of an existential threat to the country. Senior US officials believe that a humiliating defeat in the war with Ukraine in the eyes of Vladimir Putin will be just such a threat.. Thus, a paradox arises: the better the success of Kyiv on the battlefield, the more dangerous the situation as a whole becomes..

These worries bring real caution to US policy. That is why Washington decided to limit the range of the missiles it passes to Ukraine.. The Americans decided not to give the Ukrainian army artillery capabilities that would allow strikes on Russian territory.. Because it might look like a direct US attack.. And Germany generally delays the transfer of heavy weapons.

All this greatly puzzles those in the West who believe that Russian imperialism, not Russian defeat, is the biggest threat.. They point to Putin's recent statements in which he compared himself to Peter I in " This camp excludes the possibility that Putin will decide to use nuclear weapons. Because the Russian autocrat has always had a strong instinct for self-preservation. And the only way to end the Russian imperial threat is to humiliate Putin.. Therefore, leaders with such convictions are calling for more aggressive military moves, such as giving Kyiv funds to sink the Russian fleet in order to unblock Ukrainian ports..

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Realizing the need to maintain Western unity, the United States and its allies have formulated some verbal points with which they agree.. Everyone, including Scholz and Macron, agree that no one will impose a peace deal on Ukraine. But the Ukrainians fear they will actually be forced to give up territory without being equipped with powerful enough weapons to stop a Russian advance on the battlefield..

Much will depend on the impact of the new artillery systems that Ukraine will receive in the coming weeks..

Despite all the behind-the-scenes splits, most Western governments think that if Ukraine can push Russia back to the positions its army held before February 24, this could be the basis for serious negotiations.. Unfortunately, there is no guarantee that Ukraine will be able to achieve such a victory or that both sides will stop fighting if they manage to get to the line before February 24.. In Ukraine, as in Vietnam, the definition of victory is very vague. And the result could be a long, brutal war of attrition..




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