Military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine is not an ethnic conflict. Ethnic Ukrainians and Russians are likely to fight on both sides of the front line. And radical nationalism is not the main motive of Ukrainian resistance, despite all the statements of Moscow.
It's also not a religious war. Both Russia and Ukraine are secular states. Territory is also not the main reason for the battle between them, although the occupation of some regions remains a big obstacle to signing a peace agreement.. The conflict was an expression of the struggle between two different forms of organizing social and political life within the two countries that once made up most of the Soviet territory.. Andrey Kortunov, CEO of the Russian International Affairs Council, writes about this in an article for The Economist..
In his opinion, the current war is also an intellectual and spiritual confrontation between two types of thinking, two views on the modern international system and the world as a whole.. Two opposing concepts of what is right and fair and what is not, what is legitimate and what is not are opposed. According to Kortunov, it cannot be said that Ukraine has already established itself as a Western-style liberal democracy.. But she's moving steadily in that direction.. Russia, in turn, also did not become an Asian or European authoritarian state in the classical sense.. But over the past 20 years, it has moved away from the liberal democratic model.. Ukrainian society is organized from the bottom up, while Russian society is built from the top down. Since independence in 1991, Ukraine has elected 6 presidents. Each of them won a very competitive election. During the same time, Russia had only three leaders. And each time the new president was carefully chosen and supported by the predecessor.
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Historians, culturologists and sociologists argue about the causes of these striking disagreements.. But more importantly, the fundamental incompatibility of the two models of social organization not only led to a military confrontation in the center of Europe, it also dictates how each side behaves in a conflict.. The outcome of the war will have consequences that will go far beyond Europe..
Many Russian experts say that massive military supplies from the West are the only reason why Ukraine has not yet been defeated and surrendered.. But this statement does not explain the sources of Ukrainian motivation in any way.. You can, for example, look at Afghanistan, where large-scale US military support over the years has not stopped the Taliban’s lightning-fast takeover of the country.. Of course, the conflict in both countries cannot be directly compared.. However, one thing is clear: if the Afghans in 2021 were no longer ready to fight for their country and for their values, then the Ukrainians in 2022 are definitely ready..
The stakes of the war in Ukraine could hardly be higher. It is about the future of the international system and world order.. But the most important thing is that we are talking about understanding modernity itself and, as a result, the desired models of social and political development.. According to the author, there are three scenarios for the end of the war. And each of them will have extraordinary geopolitical consequences..
If the Kremlin suffers a clear defeat in this epic confrontation, the world will return to unipolarity, despite the protest of Beijing. If Ukraine is a “work in progress” for Putin, then Russia’s status is a work in progress for many in the West. A Ukrainian victory could lead to a reserved and domestically focused Russia. Such a quiet Russia will make it easier for the West to deal with China, which remains the only obstacle to liberal hegemony and the long-awaited “end of history”.
If the war ends with an imperfect but acceptable peace agreement, the result of the battle between the Russian and Ukrainian models will be postponed until later.. The fierce competition between the two models of social organization will continue, albeit in a less violent mode.. An imperfect compromise between the West and Russia could lead to a more important compromise between the West and China. If it is possible to reach an agreement with Putin, the agreement with Xi Jinping will be a logical continuation. Accord between China and the West will take time, energy and political flexibility from the West. This will lead to the formation of a global order in which the UN system, the archaic norms of international law, as well as the calibrated IMF and WTO will be changed..
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If there is no peace deal, and the war in Ukraine continues its way through heavy cycles of shaky ceasefires and escalations, global and regional organizations can be expected to decline.. Ineffective international institutions may collapse amid an accelerated arms race, the proliferation of nuclear arsenals and an increase in regional conflicts. Such changes will lead to even more chaos that will rule for many years..
Estimating the likelihood of any of these three scenarios is very difficult.
. Too many independent variables can affect the outcome of a war. The author believes that the one that involves the conclusion of an agreement to end the war would be the best option.. Others are either introducing change too quickly or blocking necessary reforms.. If the war provokes gradual, organized and non-violent changes, as a result of which the global order becomes more stable, this will mean that humanity has not betrayed the sacrifice of the Ukrainians..