While Russia has been able to make some progress in Donbas, the line of control has barely moved, and the Kremlin’s campaign in the region has effectively ground to a halt.. Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kharkiv region remains strong, while Russian forces have to retreat to the border.

The Russian army continues to storm Azovstal in Mariupol, as well as fire missiles at Odessa. However, an offensive in the south is unlikely to start, given that the campaign in Donbass has reached a dead end.. This assessment of the events in Ukraine is given by the experts of the Forward Defense program of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Coucil, Colonel of the Marine Corps John Barranco, Colonel of the US Army Benjamin Johnson and Lieutenant Colonel of the US Air Force Tyson Wetzel.

Russian offensive.

Since Russia launched its campaign in Donbas on April 19, the Kremlin has made very little progress in pursuing its goal of taking control of the entire territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.. Having stopped the attack on Kyiv and withdrawing its forces from the north of Ukraine, Russia sent some battalion tactical groups to the east, where they were supposed to support the offensive.. However, despite the numerical advantage, the Russian army was unable to cordon off the Ukrainian forces deployed south of Izyum..

“We are convinced that the supply of both Soviet and Western weapons (including long-range artillery) to Ukraine stifled the Russian offensive,” the experts are convinced, adding that the means of firing at a distance compensated for the numerical advantage of Russian forces and equipment.

Therefore, a sustained UAF counteroffensive near Kharkov is driving Russian forces out of the region north of the city.. Meanwhile, Russian attacks on Azovstal have so far failed to dislodge Ukrainian defenders from the plant, which has become the heart of Ukrainian resistance.. Russia is also firing rockets at Odessa, but has not yet launched an attack on the city.

“We predict that a major Russian offensive in the south is unlikely any time soon.. With battles in eastern Ukraine continuing and intensifying, such an offensive would be a repeat of the early Russian mistake of spreading its focus and firepower across multiple operational areas at the same time,” the analysis says..

Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Assessing the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine northeast of Kharkiv, experts predict that at the current pace, the Ukrainian military will be able to reach the Russian border in a few weeks or less.. This will have a number of possible implications..

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Firstly, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pushing the Russian forces to a distance from which they will not be able to bomb and shell Kharkiv with artillery. Secondly, Ukraine will thus force the aggressor to move from offensive operations in the south to defensive positions near Kharkov. The Kremlin will be forced to defend its territory from the Ukrainian offensive on Russian Belgorod.

“A short Ukrainian offensive near Belgorod will undermine Russian support lines critical for fighting in the Donbas,” experts explained.

Thirdly, if Russian forces northeast of Kharkov are forced to return back to Russian territory, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to outflank Russian troops in Izyum and defeat them with simultaneous attacks from the west and north. Experts also note that recently there have been many explosions and fires in Russia, some of which could be the result of Ukrainian operations, while others could be the result of Russian negligence.. At the same time, the authors of the report are convinced that the Ukrainian army is pursuing the so-called “deep strikes” strategy, which pursues both strategic and psychological goals.. On the one hand, these attacks on Russia's critical military installations (arms depots and fuel depots) exacerbate logistical problems, undermining military operations and slowing Russian momentum.. On the other hand, the range of attacks forces the Kremlin to keep the air and land defenses in the region on high alert.. This means that these forces cannot support Russian operations on the territory of Ukraine..

US and allied support.

As the war in Ukraine escalates into a prolonged conflict, Russian and Ukrainian capabilities to generate combat power will become more decisive.. Ukrainian military-industrial capabilities, according to the authors, demonstrate positive trends, while Russian ones, on the contrary, are declining. In fact, Russia remained in its war itself. It relies on its own production and repair facilities. Currently, Ukraine enjoys broad support from NATO countries, which supply it with new equipment, repair and re-equip old weapons.. Ukraine has also been successful in capturing and using weapons abandoned by Russian forces..

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The authors note that the supply of heavy weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the United States and other allied countries has proven to be effective.. The Ukrainian army was able to quickly and effectively integrate and use the received systems.

“We assess that the Kremlin’s inability to stop or even slow down Western supplies of military equipment is reflected in its success in the Donbass and throughout Ukraine.. As long as Ukraine can obtain offensive weapons, it will be able to counter Russian forces and fire superiority, prevent a Russian offensive, and inflict significant losses on Russia in terms of personnel and equipment,” experts say..

They conclude that the US and its allies are winning the race to supply Ukraine's army as heavy weapons and precision fire systems continue to enter the front lines..

Ukrainian forces are using these systems very effectively throughout the country, especially in the Donbas where the Russian offensive is fading..

“The Ukrainian counter-offensive near Kharkov was more effective than any Russian offensive in more than a month,” the analysis says..

Experts remind that Russia continues its attempts to attack Azovstal and shell Odessa. However, they doubt that the Kremlin will try to unleash a new offensive in the south before it improves its positions in the Donbass..