Russian war against Ukraine has been going on for two months. The Kremlin has not been able to solve its fundamental problems. When the Russian army was at war in the north, south and east at once, it did not have enough infantrymen and trucks to win.

Now she fights only on two fronts: eastern and southern. But there are even fewer trucks and infantry,” Forbes writes.. Even if Russian artillery can blow a hole in the Ukrainian defenses, allowing a few tank battalions to enter, Russia still does not have enough soldiers to protect these tanks, as well as the flanks of the offensive.. This is not to mention the preservation of fragile supply lines when they stretch for tens or hundreds of kilometers from the nearest railway..

Logistical problems doomed the Russian attempt to cordon off Kyiv in the first month of the war. These same logistical problems, exacerbated by an even greater lack of infantry, could doom a Russian offensive in the east as well.. Having lost thousands of tanks and other armored vehicles, as well as tens of thousands of soldiers, the Kremlin began to withdraw its battered battalion task forces from the Kyiv suburbs in late March.. Those BTGs that were still able to fight made the long train journey to southeast Ukraine in the long-occupied part of Donbass. There they joined a new Russian offensive, trying to fight their way from the northern tip of the region south through the open steppes to the ruins of Mariupol..

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The idea is to " But since Tuesday, when this operation began, Russia has not made significant progress..

“An attempt to squeeze through from the north of Donbass to the south is what we are seeing now. But the Ukrainians, they are fighting fiercely, not lying down, allowing the Russians to get through,” said an unnamed Pentagon official..

Paradoxically, breaking through Ukrainian defenses could actually set the stage for Russia's defeat.. Will Russia's 75 battalion tactical groups (of which, by the way, there were 100 at the beginning of the war) pull enough soldiers and tanks through a potential \? The encirclement of Ukrainian forces would mean that Russian troops could create their own strong fronts in the west and east.. If, during this flanking maneuver, the Russian forces themselves cannot gain a foothold, they risk being surrounded, cut off from supplies.. And if this happens, then the northern failure will repeat. Russian battalions will be stuck, they will run out of food, fuel and ammunition. At some point, the Ukrainian army will begin to tear them to shreds until the Kremlin proclaims “victory” and orders them to retreat.

To succeed in the battle for the Donbass, Russia needs a lot of battle groups, much more than it had even at the beginning of the war. We need forces that can not only break through, but also stay in the right positions. And these forces are not. To make matters worse, the BTG on the front line and their support brigades lost thousands of their fighters in the first 50 days of the war..

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In addition, geography is also a problem for Russia. Since the Ukrainian army is on the defensive, it has the advantage of the internal line. In other words, fights are fought along a line in the shape of an arc.. Russian forces are advancing from the outside of this arc. This means that their supply chains are longer than those of the forces from the inside - that is, the Ukrainian army. And if problems arise, the defender can retreat several kilometers, further stretching the enemy's support lines, thereby creating problems for him..

Therefore, the aggressor needs a significant and technical advantage.

And Russia cannot boast of such. It has about the same number of troops in Donbass as Ukraine has.. In addition, according to US officials, Kyiv now has more tanks than the Russian army.. And Russian logistics is no better than it was a month ago.

Russia started the war with too small and poorly provided army. Hoping for a quick collapse of Ukraine, which, of course, did not happen, Moscow doomed its campaign against the neighboring country to failure from the first day..