French President Emmanuel Macron has joined a slew of leaders in warning of the imminent start of a Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.. If this happens now, then Russian troops risk repeating at least some of the mistakes they made during the battle for Kyiv..

Bloomberg writes about this, adding that EU and NATO diplomats are talking about a two-week window of opportunity during which heavy weapons, including tanks, can be sent to the Ukrainian army.. After this period, Vladimir Putin will launch an offensive aimed at achieving at least some kind of victory before May 9, when Moscow will celebrate the victory in World War II over Nazi Germany.. On this day, the Kremlin holds a big parade. True, the Russian government refused to comment on what it will be like this year..

" The European organization has allocated an additional 500 million euros to finance military assistance for Ukraine.

Meanwhile, weather conditions, the need to prepare logistics, take care of air dominance and regroup forces defeated in the vicinity of the Ukrainian capital, require more time to prepare a Russian offensive in the Donbass, military analysts say.. And Putin seems to recognize that one has to choose between speed and heavy losses.. During a press conference on Tuesday, he said he was often asked if the war could have ended faster..

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" It all depends on the intensity of hostilities. And anyway, this intensity is associated with losses. Our task is to achieve goals with minimal losses,” said Russian autocrat.

And that's exactly what Russia will find hard to do if it throws its army into battle in the midst of the spring swamp season, when the ground is too soft and wet for trucks and self-propelled artillery to move off-road.. Actually, something similar happened in the Kiev region. Some convoys got stuck and were easy prey for attacks. This season will end sometime in May. But that doesn't sit well with Putin, who wants to win by Victory Day, military analysts say.. The big defeat of Russian forces near major cities like Kharkiv teaches that armored vehicles should not be sent on Ukrainian highways. Have to choose smaller and slower provincial roads. But they, in turn, are ideal for setting up ambushes, especially when the trees turn green..

The regrouping of battalion tactical groups, consisting of 600-800 soldiers and 50 armored vehicles, including tanks, also takes more time.. The Russian regiment consists of two such groups. And to upgrade they have to go back to base. In addition, parts are needed for the repair of equipment that have to be transported from other regions of Russia.. 'Cause all this doesn't happen quickly. For example, T-72 tanks need to be sent to Nizhny Tagil, 2,200 kilometers from Donetsk, to be repaired there.. T-80 needs to be taken to Omsk in Siberia. And this is 3000 km from the territory of Ukraine. Considering that the most combat-ready vehicles have already been thrown into battle, the available change to send to the battlefield is significantly older models with limited capabilities..

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General Oleksandr Dvornikov, now in command of the entire war against Ukraine, must understand all these circumstances.. At the same time, Russia is in a hurry not only for politically symbolic reasons, such as the parade. Moscow wants to act quickly so that Ukraine does not have time to transfer its forces to the east. In addition, she is worried that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are about to receive drones, anti-tank, anti-ship and anti-aircraft weapons worth hundreds of millions of dollars, as well as tanks and armored vehicles from the US, UK, Australia and EU countries, which are now rushing to help Ukraine..

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Russian losses in the first 6 weeks of the war were very high. Reliable data is not currently available.. However, according to US estimates, about 20% of the Russian forces available before the start of the invasion have already been lost.. And that's a pretty big number.. According to O'Brien, the trend of Russian losses is unlikely to change.

“Russia is suffering from a constant loss of strength, drop by drop. Her success is meager at the same time.. And instead of concentrating forces on one target, they disperse forces slowly moving along a poor network of roads.. And all this without dominating the sky,” explained the British professor.

However, a large number of losses is unlikely to stop the war. As Russia is ready for the death of its soldiers. And Putin's war against Ukraine enjoys broad support in Russian society.. However, losses can create constraints in critical areas where personnel are difficult to replace quickly.. For example, it is difficult to quickly find military pilots.

Of course, even despite the heavy losses, Putin will be able to declare some kind of “victory”, given that he completely controls the media in Russia.. The problem is that it remains unclear how to stop the war even after Putin declares " Russian troops will still be on Ukrainian territory. And the APU will have no choice but to try to drive them out..

Earlier, CNN wrote that the next key battle of the Russian-Ukrainian war will be the battle for Sloviansk.. Since the city is of key strategic importance. If the enemy can take control of him, he will have the opportunity to cordon off the Ukrainian army in the Donbass.

In turn, the New York Times wrote that the battle for Donbass would be extremely fierce.. It will be very different from the fighting in the vicinity of Kyiv, Kharkov and Sumy. Because here the enemy knows the area better. And its supply chains are shorter.