Vladimir Putin appoints new general to lead war against Ukraine. And Russian generals are preparing a new phase of the offensive, hoping to capture a large part of the Donbass, which is under Ukrainian control..

Kyiv appears to be taking this threat seriously.. In Donetsk and Luhansk regions, local officials urge people to evacuate. They also organize humanitarian corridors for civilians to move to safer parts of Ukraine..

But is Russia capable of launching a terrible new offensive in the east? CNN writes about it. Maxar Technologies has released new satellite imagery showing a 12km Russian convoy heading towards Bolshoy Burluk, east of Kharkiv.. On Saturday, the adviser to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Vadim Denisenko, said that Kharkiv was being shelled around the clock.. And in the region, a Russian offensive is expected from the city of Izyum.

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Military experts and Western officials have also said that Putin's generals are aiming for some kind of victory before May 9, when Russia celebrates World War II Victory Day.. But a fresh analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) calls into question Russia's ability to concentrate forces in the Donbass necessary for a breakthrough..

“We believe that it will be difficult for the Russian army to assemble a large and combat-ready force from mechanized units for an operation in Donbas over the next few months.. Russia is likely to continue to throw heavily damaged and partially regrouped formations on the offensive, which will provide limited benefit at a very high cost, ”the experts of the institute say..

Military analysts and observers say it will be difficult for Russia to reorganize the forces defeated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in particular, in the vicinity of Kyiv and in northern Ukraine. Before the start of a full-scale war, Russia had 120 battalion tactical groups at the disposal of Ukraine near the borders of Ukraine. An unnamed European official told CNN that about a quarter of these forces became " On April 8, a U.S. defense official gave a slightly different assessment. According to him, the Russian army retained " ISW considers such US assessments "

“The dozens of battalion tactical groups that retreated from Kyiv most likely have only a partial combat strength, which is usually inherent in formations of this size.. Russian units that were already fighting in Ukraine suffered heavy losses,” the ISW concluded..

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The appointment of a new commander to manage the Russian war against Ukraine seems to be an attempt to solve a coordination problem that has already undermined the capabilities of the Russian army..

“The Russians are apparently trying to solve one of the problems they faced at the beginning of the invasion by appointing the commander of the Southern Military District, General Alexander Dvornikov, as the commander of operations in Ukraine.. But this simplification of the Russian command structure will not solve all the control problems.. Russian forces are likely to continue to suffer from a lack of coherent and effective command and control mechanisms in the near future..

However, this does not mean that the coming weeks will be easy for the Ukrainian forces defending in the east.. The ISW expects that the Russian army "

“But it is no less likely that the climax of the Russian offensive will come before the goals are achieved, as has already happened with similar Russian operations,” ISW experts explained..

Recall, Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed the commander of the Southern Military District of Russia, General of the Army Alexander Dvornikov, commander of troops in Ukraine.

Its main task will be to improve coordination and win at any cost until May 9.

Dvornikov, 60, was the first commander of Russia's military operations in Syria since Putin sent troops there in September 2015 to support the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad..