The first stage of the war against Ukraine did not go as planned by Vladimir Putin. But the next 4 weeks could determine how the map of Europe will change as a result of the Russian invasion.. The gradual escalation of sanctions that has taken place in recent days will not change much on the battlefield.

We will have to radically increase the supply of weapons, as well as change the type of weapons that are transferred to Ukraine by allies such as the UK, the US and other allies.. Bloomberg writes about it..

Military analysts and officials in America and other NATO countries warn that Russian military operations will intensify over the next 7-10 days.. The regrouped Russian forces will be sent to the Donbas and try to break the Ukrainian defenders of Mariupol, in order to then launch an offensive from both the north and the south. Despite the fact that the Russian army has fought very poorly so far, it now faces more realistic tasks.. Instead of attacking from three fronts at once, Russia now wants to focus on one front, where supply chains are less vulnerable to Ukrainian attacks.. Russia also took into account the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, which it had previously greatly underestimated..

Before the start of the Russian invasion, the JFO forces in the east, consisting of 40,000 soldiers, were the best armed and trained units of the Ukrainian army.. These troops remain resilient, but the last five weeks of fierce fighting have taken their toll.. They are also more difficult to supply. In addition, they do not have the same powerful air defense as in Kyiv. It is possible that Putin sees May 9 as the last date for the capture of eastern Ukraine.. In the views of the Russian autocrat, this will be the first step towards the " If the Russian army succeeds, it will then try to close this part of the country..

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However, according to Jack Watling, an expert on land warfare at the Royal Joint Institute for Defense Studies, Moscow does not have the strength to go further beyond the JFO zone.. Putin has already thrown all combat-ready forces into the war. And reserves are very limited. Units that are not yet at war against Ukraine are auxiliaries, fresh conscripts or groups that are operating in other countries and therefore the Kremlin cannot transfer them.

If the Russian army loses offensive momentum and is overwhelmed by anti-tank weapons and artillery, according to Watling, in four weeks its forces will be depleted. Then Putin will have to decide whether he is ready to go to an even larger war, starting the full mobilization of the country. In this case, it will no longer be possible to call it a special operation..

The fact that Russia has withdrawn troops from Kyiv and is no longer averse to Ukraine joining the EU indicates that Moscow has already begun to rethink its aspirations..

“Zelensky is now in a much stronger position than anyone in the West will ever be. NATO has never been as strong as it is now. Germany has completely changed its defense policy and abandoned the approaches that it has adhered to for the past 40 years.. Russia is about to lose two major energy export routes that have been its main source of income. Although it may take some time. The Nord Stream 2 project collapsed. The Russians have lost control of their foreign exchange reserves,” Sir Malcolm Rifkind, an ex-secretary of defense and former British foreign secretary, said optimistically..

However, winning at the beginning is not the same as winning at the end.. If Ukraine is dismembered, it will radically change the security landscape in Europe. And while some will urge Kyiv to negotiate as soon as possible, any truce or agreement that leaves Ukraine vulnerable to another attack will undermine real reconstruction efforts.. After all, investing will become impossible.

A new phase of the looming battle requires new weapons, explains Keir Giles of Chatham House, who has written two books on Russian foreign policy in recent years..

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“The weapons that Ukraine needs to continue the fight are not exactly defensive weapons that should help the country not lose the war.. We also need tools to strike at the enemy, including the ability to shell Russian-controlled territories,” the expert said..

According to him, the United States until that time was engaged in a “crisis manager” and was not focused on the needs of Ukraine at the crisis stage of the war.. The UK and other NATO countries can do a lot. On the Ukrainian wishlist are anti-tank guided missiles, portable air defense systems, cartridges, drones, radars, surface-to-air missiles, and passively waiting kamikaze drones to strike at the right moment.. Czech Republic sent T-72 tanks to Ukraine. They will be helpful. But Prague can also supply spare parts.

Ukraine will also need supplies to provide reservists and recruits who will be sent to the front in rotation.

NATO countries should facilitate the transition of the Ukrainian army to defense systems, including air defense, that can be better supported (at this time, the allies are only concerned about their own support). There is also an urgent need for humanitarian support and economic assistance to prevent the Ukrainian economy from collapsing.. Sanctioning the oligarchs and freezing their yachts was "

The next phase of the war will be a test not only for Ukrainian forces, but also for the unity of the democratic world, its purpose and ability to think clearly about the future..