If the current rates of vaccination are maintained, Ukraine runs the risk of not overcoming the pandemic in 2022 and acquiring herd immunity only in 2023.. This conclusion was reached by scientists from the KPI and the Institute of Epidemiology and Infectious Diseases, the press service of the Kiev Polytechnic University reports..

Scientists have predicted the rate of attenuation of COVID-19 around the world, based on the main conclusion of the recent report of the international consulting company McKinsey \u0026 Company that the defining means of overcoming the pandemic is mass vaccination of the population..

As noted, due to the shortage of vaccines and the extremely low rates of vaccination (1.8% of the population with one dose as of May 1, 2021), as well as due to non-compliance with the proper amount of quarantine standards, Ukraine belongs to countries with a high risk of protracted formation; stagnation of the economy and social life; growing isolation from countries that have achieved control of the epidemic situation.

As a result of the study, scientists grouped countries into five clusters.

The first cluster included the United States, Israel, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates, which vaccinated more than 60% of the population and approached the formation of herd immunity at the end of the second - beginning of the third quarter of 2021..

In the second - most of the countries of Western Europe and Canada. They may move to a herd immunity model towards the end of 2021 - early 2022.

The third cluster was made up of Turkey, some countries of Central Europe, Morocco and Uruguay. In these countries, no more than 20% of the population has been vaccinated yet, there is no strict adherence to quarantine standards, and the daily incidence continues to grow.. These countries are likely to move to a herd immunity model closer to mid-2022.

The fourth cluster covers countries with high morbidity and slow vaccination. This group, in particular, includes Ukraine, Russia, Moldova, Georgia, Brazil, Mexico, India and a number of other countries.. The average number of vaccinated population in the countries of this cluster is 4.5%, in Ukraine - 1.8%.

If the current rates of vaccination are maintained, these countries risk not overcome the pandemic in 2022 and acquire herd immunity only in 2023..

The fifth cluster includes Australia, China, Argentina, the countries of Southeast Asia with relatively low incidence rates, but also with a slow rate of vaccination of the population.. Overcoming the pandemic in these countries can stretch in time and end in late 2022 - early 2023.

Natalia Medvedeva LIGABusinessInform.