Vladimir Pastukhov (Moscow): Tomos of instability? -? Very "timely" civil war

17 October 2018, 17:17 | Ukraine
photo Odessa Daily
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The separation of the potential Ukrainian patriarchy from the Russian patriarchy? -? Not the same thing as the separation of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church from the Russian Orthodox Church, although these are interrelated processes.

The movement vector of the shepherds does not necessarily completely coincide with the movement vector of the flock.. And if the first is easy to predict (so far there are no surprises on both sides in the case of Ukrainian Tomos), then the second is difficult to predict.. It is not excluded that the “church divorce” will be assessed by the Ukrainian flock in different regions of the country not as unequivocally as it appears today in government offices, and a significant number of supporters of maintaining ties with the Moscow Church.

Tomos Passion Few people doubt that the suppression of the resistance of the “new church minority” will be carried out in practical terms not in the most intelligent ways.. And at least some incidents with violent seizure with the tacit connivance of the authorities of the parishes who did not wish to voluntarily sever ties with the Moscow Patriarchate are unlikely to be avoided.. Thus, despite the fact that the position of the majority of the Ukrainian flock does not raise any doubts, it will undoubtedly support the separation in today's conditions, the emergence of a serious civil conflict with a very substantial minority is seen as the likely outcome of this enterprise..

The peculiarity of this new civil conflict will be that it will not have such a clear regional localization as, for example, the war in Donbas. It can cover almost the entire territory of Ukraine except, perhaps, only its most extreme western regions, where the number of supporters of the Moscow Church will be scanty. At first glance, it seems that the resistance of the church minority will be short and it will be able to be overcome quickly enough, especially if the administrative and propaganda resource is fully involved.. But in reality, the deep-seated moods of the Ukrainian congregation? -? Especially outside of large settlements? -? Few people are known for certain.. Therefore surprises are not excluded..

The European vector of development, part of which is the desire for Tomos, may be rooted in the Ukrainian “bottoms” to a much lesser extent than in the Ukrainian “tops”. The spiritual influence of the Maidan on the Ukrainian masses remains so far more superficial than its leaders and beneficiaries would like it to. In the main part, this mass, as in Russia, remains “Soviet” and its reactions are not always predictable.. But if all this time, while revolutionary activity was declining, the participation of this mass in Ukrainian political life was rather limited, then after an active policy intrusion into a confessional dispute takes place, the situation may change. The mass will move again, and this movement may reveal a deeper split in it than is supposed today.. This will not add stability to the Ukrainian society, and so it lives a very "non-dull" life.. They are so different? -? And yet they are together. Paradoxically, the new "small victorious civil war" seems today equally attractive to influential political forces in both Moscow and Kiev.. Ratings of the Russian and Ukrainian authorities made an almost synchronous dive down. Moreover, despite all that separates the Russian and Ukrainian ruling circles, the reasons for this “dive” are similar? -? Economic stagnation, forcing governments to make unpopular decisions in the field of social policy, the inability to curb corruption and fatigue of the population from the war, which gradually loses its effectiveness as a mobilizing and disinfecting opposition means. At the same time, the position of the Ukrainian leadership is even more technically vulnerable, since the election is at its forefront and, unlike Moscow, everyone knows the name of the only alternative candidate who waits patiently until, finally, the government falls into her hands.

In such circumstances, the temptation to push the processes, make the Ukrainian society once again hum, like a disturbed beehive, is very great along both lines of the Ukrainian front. They are so different? -? And yet they are together in their quest to extract momentary political gain from a managed, as it seems to them, civil conflict. Motives are different, but the algorithm is similar. Moscow will strive to maximize the fire in order to destabilize the Ukrainian government, and the Ukrainian government hopes that this fire will burn potential competitors in the basement before reaching the upper floors of the government..

All this makes the future of both Ukraine and Russia quite alarming.. The potential for new confrontation seems to be greatly underestimated. In Kiev, they believe that Tomos’s passions will quickly subside, and the whole story will have a slight refreshing political effect.. But, taking into account with what enthusiasm the Kremlin got down to business, how the Security Council quickly assembled (ahead of even the Holy Synod), everything could be different. The beginning of the conflict in the Donbass also seemed to be a clown idea, until the “power acrobats” from the Moscow circus entered the arena. Even the deadly smoldering fire can be turned into a pioneer bonfire, if you generously pour it with diesel fuel.. And it seems that this all goes.

If forecasts by the majority of unchurched analysts for a quick and painless exhaustion of church conflict are not justified, both Russia and Ukraine can very soon be thrown back four years ago, to the point where both countries were balancing a step from the start of full-scale, not local war.. Only the current situation can turn out to be much more serious, because over the past few years, all the sanction brakes have been erased, the world generally lives in a different reality and that which could stop someone then will not stop today. When such deep layers of consciousness as religious identity are affected? -? It is always unpredictable and very dangerous. Especially if people with lit candles pray while standing on a powder keg.

Inevitably, but at the wrong time Four years of undeclared war, which the Russian army has waged on the territory of Ukraine, keeping the separatist regimes that degenerated into primitive Makhnovshchina afloat, made the separation of the Ukrainian Church from the Moscow Patriarchate almost inevitable. In fact, this is not so much a choice of the Ukrainian Church, as the choice of the Moscow Patriarchate, which fully solidarized with the secular authorities, and in the conflict between the Russian and Ukrainian congregations clearly took one side, thus becoming part of the conflict.

The question of separation was only a matter of time, and yet the time turned out to be extremely unfortunate.. Artificial stimulation of Tomos, on which the leadership of Ukraine has made a political stake in the run-up to the upcoming presidential elections, is a mistake. This is a dangerous game for which you can get a red card of history if the situation on the political field cannot be kept under control.. Maybe someone thinks that Tomos? -? This is something like a visa-free entry to Europe, which can be presented to the people as a pre-election advance..

But in the current situation, it looks more like a free pass to the civil war.. The main question today is not whether to be separated or not, but how timely it is.. It's like the burial of Lenin? -? Thin matter: like yesterday it was early, and today it's too late.

Our italics. This man was a symbol of the Komsomol for me.. All my real Komsomol life (up to 23 years old - graduation from the institute), he remained the head of this organization. But, in spite of this, the article, in my opinion, requiring attention.




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