The IMF expects in 2019 to coincide with the growth rate of global GDP in nominal (3.5%) and real (3.7%) terms. From here it turns out that next year they expect deflation? !.

But deflation is a satellite of the crisis.. And the IMF crisis is not predicted (however, they never predicted).

This is the biggest oddity of the IMF forecast in the entire report..

From the baseline, I note that the IMF has reduced the expected growth rate of the global economy.. ? In 2018, the nominal global GDP (in US dollars) will grow by 6%, and in 2019 only by 3.5% - and then accelerate again to 5.5% per annum (by the way, these are average growth rates since 1980).

At the same time, real GDP will grow, according to the IMF, at a rate of 3.6-3.7% per year.

The IMF expects a sharp deterioration in the balance of payments of developing countries. If in 2010-12, they exported more imports for $ 336 billion. a year, then in 2023 they are expected to have a negative balance of payments of $ 341 billion.

That is a completely inverted picture.. And this is very important..

First of all, this deterioration will occur at the expense of developing countries in Asia (China and others), as well as non-energy countries. And it will threaten the economic positions of these countries, overheated by debts and with negative demographics..

By the way, now developing countries have a generally neutral balance of payments..

According to the balance of payments of Ukraine, expectations are neutral - it will be something like now. The truth is how to achieve this with a relatively stable hryvnia exchange rate is not clear - the IMF figures do not always fight each other.

The slowdown of the global economy will occur as a result of the trade war and the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. And this has already affected the slowdown in the industry.. ? Consumer confidence is still strong due to strong labor market.

At the same time, oil exporters improved the economy, and oil importers worsened (especially developing oil-importing countries).

IMF expects lower prices for oil and other raw materials. Including due to the weakening of China. By the way, the forecast for the yuan was worsened - the truth is simply rearranged to its current rate.

Separately, the IMF again recalls the gigantic credit burden of the Chinese economy (Credit-to-GDP Ratio 220% of GDP).

In Ukraine.

Ukraine's GDP (both in US dollars and hryvnias) is significantly improved. Just before their forecast was too low, and now it is an adequate forecast, if there are no external shocks..

The IMF still expects that Ukraine’s share in the global economy will continue to decline - even in terms of purchasing power parity from 0.29% to 0.28% (in 1992 it was 1%!)?.

The IMF improved its balance of payments deficit forecast from 4% to 3% of GDP - most likely thanks to the citizens of Belarus. But, as I have already noted, this forecast is controversial - in periods of economic growth, imports usually grow even more rapidly..

Real GDP growth improved in 2018, but worsened at 2019-20.

Inflation is slightly worsened, but the new forecast is clearly underestimated (9.03% for the current year). Lowering inflation forecast for 2019–20 correlates with expected slowdown in Ukraine’s economy.

Hryvnia exchange rate expectations improved for 2018-21.

findings.

IMF expectations for 2019 are cloudy and disturbing. However, they do not predict a crisis, as always.