Latest AI breakthrough could automate a quarter of the work done in the US and Eurozone, reports the Financial Times, citing Goldman Sachs research.
An investment bank said on Monday that artificial intelligence systems like ChatGPT, which can create content that is indistinguishable from human output, could spark a productivity boom that could eventually increase annual global gross domestic product by 7% over the next 10 years..
At the same time, if the technology lives up to expectations, it could lead to a “significant disruption” to the labor market by automating the work of 300 million full-time workers in major economies..
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Among those most at risk of being redundant are lawyers and administrative staff.. The authors of the study estimate that approximately two-thirds of jobs in the US and Europe experience some degree of automation based on data about tasks typically performed in thousands of occupations.. The workload of the rest of the people will be reduced by almost half and they will probably continue to work, freeing up some of their time for more productive activities..
In the US, automation will affect 63% of the workforce. An additional 30% of workers engaged in physical work or outdoors will not be affected, although their work may be sensitive to other forms of automation..
However, about 7% of American workers work in areas where at least half of their tasks could be performed by generative AI, and they are vulnerable to replacement.. According to a study by Goldman, artificial intelligence will have a similar impact in Europe..
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The report sparked a series of discussions about the potential of artificial intelligence technologies both to restore productivity growth in wealthy countries and to create a new class of dispossessed white-collar workers who risk the same fate as manufacturing workers in the 1980s..
However, in general, Goldman's estimates of the impact of AI are more conservative than estimates of some other academic studies that predict the impact of artificial intelligence on a wider range of related technologies.. An article published last week by OpenAI, the developer of GPT-4, says that 80% of the US workforce can transfer at least 10% of their tasks to generative artificial intelligence..
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Europol also warned this week that the rapid progress of generative AI could be exploited by online scammers and cybercriminals, so "
If corporate investment in artificial intelligence grows at the same pace as investment in software in the 1990s, it could approach 1% of GDP by 2030 in the US alone..
Goldman's estimates are based on analysis of data from the US and Europe on tasks commonly performed in thousands of different professions.. The researchers hypothesized that AI could perform tasks such as filling out tax returns for small businesses, assessing insurance claims, or documenting a crime scene inspection.. The use of AI for more sensitive tasks, such as making court decisions, checking the status of a patient in intensive care, or studying international tax law, was not considered by the researchers..