Scientists from Canada conducted a study on the history of the plague over several centuries.
To do this, they analyzed thousands of pages of historical documents and personal records of eyewitnesses, according to the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Representatives of McMaster University in Ontario compared the two largest epidemics in Europe: the Black Death, which peaked in 1348, and the Great Plague in London (1665-1666). Chronicles say that in the 14th century, the disease wiped out more than a third of Europe's population.. But it spread more slowly than in the 17th century..
So, if in the 1340s the number of infected people doubled every 43 days, then in the 1660s - already every 11 days. This "
In their study, scientists assessed changes in mortality rates based on three different sources: official reports, parish registers and personal wills.. They noted that in those days people rarely made wills in advance and wrote them on the eve of imminent death, so their dates can be quite informative..
In the course of previous studies, including genetic studies, it was found that the main causative agent of the plague is the bacterium Yersinia pestis. Its strains have hardly changed over the past period of time.. But not much is known about the rate of spread of the disease..
Having studied all the data, the experts came to the conclusion that the plague in those days did not spread by airborne droplets from person to person..
The nature of both early and late epidemics is more consistent with bubonic plague, which is transmitted through the bites of infected fleas.
And the acceleration in transmission rates in the 17th century is associated not only with a large population density, but also with poor living conditions and lower temperatures..
This data, according to the authors, helps to better understand how other infectious diseases are spreading today, including how COVID-19.
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