The UK Meteorological Service estimated that over the next 5 years, the average annual temperature of the Earth will rise by 1.5 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900).

The report also says that there is a small - 10% - chance that at least one year from 2018 to 2022 the average temperature will rise above 1.5 ° C, although not this year. For the first time British experts predict such a significant global warming. Recall that the Paris climate agreement requires restraining warming within 2 ° C, and ideally at a level of 1.5 ° C compared with the pre-industrial era.

It should be noted that the forecast of British meteorologists refers to the temporary fluctuation of the average annual temperature.

"Now we see a small but real opportunity to temporarily exceed the level of 1.5 ° C, but we must remember that the Paris agreement shows a long-term achievement of this level, rather than a temporary fluctuation," says Doug Smith, one of the Meteorological Service.

Nevertheless, this trend indicates that this development is likely, although it differs in its prerequisites from a longer-term rise in temperature. In the past, temporary fluctuations coincided with such a phenomenon in the Pacific, as El Nino.

According to Professor Skife, long-term greenhouse gas emissions may increase the chances of an average annual temperature increase of more than 1.5 ° C in the coming years.

Details on the likelihood of such a scenario can be learned from the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which will be published in 2018, the website of the Met Office of the United Kingdom.

Among the possible consequences of global warming, as computer models predict, are ice melting, the oxidation of oceans, a drought that will hit a quarter of the planet, forest fires and the mass extinction of many animal species. Under threat of flooding there will be coastal cities. A humanitarian catastrophe will begin.

Source: High Tech.