The year has not yet ended, but we can already be sure that the 2017 will become one of the hottest. The statement of the World Meteorological Organization notes: it is likely that this year may be one of the three warmest years in history, says the researcher of atmospheric phenomena, professor of Melbourne University (Australia) David Caroli.

What is noteworthy is that the El Nino phenomenon does not affect the heat this year. When El Nino brings warm waters to the tropical part of the Pacific Ocean, this leads to an increase in the average global temperature on the surface of the earth by an additional 0.1-0.2?. But even in the absence of this phenomenon, the air temperature this year was quite high.

We can already say with confidence that 2017 will be the warmest year without the impact of El Nino. This year will be warmer than any other until 2015. The average global temperature in the period from January to September in 2017 was approximately 1.1? higher than the average temperature in the pre-industrial era.

This trend is associated with an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. In 2017, we are seeing a record global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the largest recorded surge in CO?.

Year of weather anomalies Of course, none of us is exploring the global average temperature, because we are more concerned about local weather anomalies. And this year was marked by many extremes.

At the poles, we observe the continuation of the global trend of melting ice. On February 13 this year, the global volume of sea ice reached its lowest level in the winter period. Now the ice areas in the Arctic have recovered slightly, but still remain rather low relative to the average value. An analogous situation is observed in Antarctica.

In East Africa, there was a prolonged drought. Combined with political instability, this led to the problem of food security and population migration, especially in Somalia.

Storms and fires This year there was a very active hurricane season in the North Atlantic. Parts of the southern United States and the Caribbean have suffered from powerful hurricanes such as Harvey, Irma and Maria. And these states are still recovering from the consequences.

This year also saw several significant outbreaks of forest fires. In Western Europe, a record heat in June this year and very dry conditions led to severe fires in Portugal. And in October, more serious fires broke out across Spain and Portugal.

Part of California also suffered from severe fires. Wet winter promoted the growth of plants, but then came the hot dry summer. Currently in Australia predict the worst season of fires after a record warm winter.

Conclusion So, what conclusions can be drawn from the abnormal weather this year? It is clear that people contribute to climate warming and increase the chances that extreme weather events will occur more often. In particular, the heat in many countries this year is already linked to the anthropogenic factor of climate change.

For other phenomena, the influence of man is not so definitely.

For example, the causes of drought in East Africa do not show a "human footprint". In addition, it is difficult to say exactly how climate change affected tropical cyclones, in addition to the fact that their effect is likely to be enhanced by rising sea levels.

However, it can be said that the extreme weather of most of 2017 shows what awaits us in the future.

The column was co-authored with Melbourne University's climate researcher Andrew King Translation of HB.