Taras Dmitrik talks about three goalkeepers who will shortly eclipse Neuer.
End of December - the time of various ratings and symbolic teams. But often this hardly makes sense because of its subjectivity, opinions only on the basis of general impressions or important goals in important matches. And it's trite, what's the point in the FIFA team year, where from year to year the same people from the same teams?.
The next series of posts offers a slightly different approach to the compilation of such lists. A large sample of matches (from one season to four) will be taken and based on the elements of modern advanced statistics, the best players of the outgoing year.
There is no point in writing that Neuer is the best in the Bundesliga? This and so everyone knows, so players who are to varying degrees undervalued or not so popular in wide circles. It is logical that we will start with the goalkeepers.
First it is worth to say, according to what parameters we will evaluate the keeper. The first is playing on the ribbon. Judging the level of the game goalkeeper in the frame by the percentage of saves is not quite right. Since it does not take into account the level of the enemy or the place of striking.
Therefore, with the help of xG, which I already talked about, and some mathematical formulas, we managed to derive the BINOM. Which means the probability that the average goalkeeper will miss more goals from these moments than a particular goalkeeper in our case.
The second is the game at the exits. To evaluate it we will take two indicators:.
1) Aggression All attempts at the game at the output are divided into the number of crosses that the opponent made. This shows how often the goalkeeper generally goes to the exits.
2) The percentage of successful exits from all attempts Marvin Hitz, Augsburg (Germany) First it is worth to say, by what parameters we will evaluate the keeper. The first is playing on the ribbon. Judging the level of the game goalkeeper in the frame by the percentage of saves is not quite right. Since the sample for one season is extremely small to show the real level, plus it is obvious that the goalkeepers of the top teams are dealing with much less dangerous blows.
Therefore, with the help of xG, which I already talked about, and some mathematical formulas, we managed to derive the BINOM. Which means the probability that the average goalkeeper will miss more goals from these moments than a particular goalkeeper in our case.
So BINOM Hintz 94.43%, only Neuer has higher - 99.08% (the sample for the last three seasons). This is a very high rate.
Another one of his plus - the game on the outputs. It, too, is usually misjudged, for a clean number of successful ball fixations are taken after exiting or taking out punches. These numbers alone do not work, since the number of canopies is not taken into account.
We will take two indicators:.
1) Aggression All attempts at the game at the output are divided into the number of crosses that the rival of the goalkeeper team made. This shows how often the goalkeeper generally goes to the exits.
2) The percentage of successful exits from all attempts On this basis, we get the following table:.
The game at the outputs of Hitz is above average (usually fixes, than beats, but not often in principle comes out of the gate when filing into the penalty area). If you take into account the number of errors, you can understand that not particularly aggressive game at the outputs is justified. For example, pay attention to the indicator of Noyer.
Mattia Perin, Genoa (Italy) This young enough keeper long ago earned a place in the top club. At most he is not allowed to do this injury. At the age of 25, he already had two ruptures of cruciate ligaments.
BINOM he has 95.26% - the fifth result in Italy among all the keepers in the last 4 seasons.
At the same time, his game at the outputs is very similar to Hinz: the most balanced style.
And I will remind you that Mattia is only 25 years old. And what about Donnarumma, is he younger and the indicators are also higher? The difference is in age: Perin played more and spent all his seasons at a consistently high level. Donnarumma, in turn, overperformed last year, due to which he has such indicators, and now in his game a strong decline. Roughly speaking, the difference is made by the selection of matches, which Perin has above Jordan Pickford, Everton (England) This guy is only 23 years old and his strengths are slightly different from the two previous keeper.
He perfectly starts attacking. If you think that this is not so important, then listen to Pep Guardiola, who sacrificed many qualities of keeper for the goalkeeper-libero with an excellent first pass.
A metric was introduced that took into account the number of rival players in the transfer, roughly speaking Packing.
According to this indicator, he is the third in the Premier League for the last season.
Evaluation of his game on the ribbon was carried out according to another scheme: the direction was taken into account, where the ball was beaten off - that is, the angle, before itself or taken firmly. Plus the shock hazard factor itself.
Pickford here also showed the third result in the league.
Bonus: Andrey Lunin, Zarya (Ukraine) I take it as a bonus only because the advanced statistics for UPL are simply not available and it is necessary to draw conclusions solely from my own observations.
Andrew is not judging the situation judiciously by the years.
He knows well what position he should take, where he will advance and where to give. The exception is the exit from the gate, but more about this later.
He also has excellent long-distance programs. Short assess is difficult because of the fact that in Zary they are in principle rarely used. In addition, Lunin plays well at the outputs.
But the problem is that Andrew is flirting and goes out where it is not necessary. This season, he already received several goals by the scruff of the neck.