On the fourth anniversary, it is worth reminding ourselves once again of the causes of the war..

The following is the text in the original language. The remaining 500 years (XVI-XX centuries) were the era of modern empires. An empire, as an unstable system, can go through two phases: an expanded phase and a shortened phase.. The stable foundation of the empire (the USSR under Brezhnev) is inviolable and rests on a unique set of minds: the order of the world, the rules and households (the exchange system, military-political. As a result of such unprecedented periods, empires either expand (sometimes even more rapidly, like the burying of Muscovy in Siberia at a distant moment), or quickly disappear - they lose colonies, transforming into the original.

The 20th century was the hour of the shortened decline of the empire. At the beginning of the century, the Ottoman and Austro-Ugric empires fell apart (this share could merge with the Russian one), the other half saw the decolonization of Africa and Asia. The Russian Empire is being deprived of the remaining great empire of today (except in China, where the colonies constitute an insignificant part, and the Kurdish diet). In 1991, the birth went through another stage of disintegration, when the so-called Radian republics fell. After all, Russia, although formally called a federation, continues to lose its empire.

If the empire does not expand, it shortens. The understanding of the irreversibility of the residual collapse of the empire, coupled with the image of the collapse of the USSR, led to the formation of a policy of renewal of the empire. Since 1991, Russia has been laying hot spots on its periphery in the Transnistria region, but in reality testing of the imperial renewal took place in 2008 in Georgia. The presence of live news from the side of the world trade has changed Russia, so that many imperial territories are recognized by the world as an exclusive zone of interests, also.

Russians are discovering what they can start from another country - for example, from Kazakhstan. Without Ukraine, the Russian Empire is of no value, in fact it is impossible. Without Ukraine, Russia would be a peripheral barbarian empire, and with Ukraine it would be a power on a planetary scale. Our time has come. Of course, other triggers were at play here (crisis of legitimacy of the regime, fear of the democratic butt of justice, etc.), but the key factor itself.

I don’t remember who was the first to say that this war is existential for both sides: if Russia can force Ukraine to wake up, but the opposite is true: if Ukraine can overcome it, Russia will force it to fall. The principle will be different, as Turkey is divided from the Ottoman Empire, Austria from the Austro-Ugric Empire.

Well, the key reason for the war is the instability of the remaining empire, for which the extent of expansion (in this case, renewal) means a direct path to residual decline.

The remaining dinosaur may eat or die.

All empires are not biological objects. There is no inevitable “law of nature” here, but the choice eats and supports the mass. There is no “historical imminence”, but there is no similarity of subjects. Russia could have been decolonized as early as the 1990s, but had waged a war with the Chechen people, the invasion of other republics, the tightening of screws, the nullification of the “parade of sovereignties” and the federal treaty, the renewal. From which moment the trajectory was fixed.

There will be further.