To understand whether labor migration has returned to the "

Alexandra Slobodyan, an expert on migration issues of the analytical center CEDOS, discusses this in her author's column on NV.

*** Even at the beginning of the introduction of quarantine, it was clear that the restriction of opportunities to cross the border, the termination of international transport links and the restriction of the entry of foreigners in the main countries of work of labor migrants cannot but affect labor migration from Ukraine. However, it was not clear whether labor migration would be able to quickly recover after the removal of administrative restrictions, especially in conditions when the very travel from one country to another carries additional health risks.. To understand whether labor migration has returned to the "

Border Guard Data Perhaps the most recent data on which to speculate about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on migration is data from border guards.. At the beginning of the quarantine, the latter reported almost daily on the number of Ukrainians who returned from all over the world to the president's call. So, in March, the number of state border crossings to enter Ukraine exceeded the number of border crossings to exit by 300 thousand, in April - 100 thousand. , and in May - by 53 thousand. Thus, it can be assumed that since the beginning of the quarantine, about 450 thousand. person. However, with the opening of borders and the restoration of international transport links, Ukrainians began to travel abroad more often than to return, and in the period from June to September the number of border crossings at the exit exceeded the number of crossings at the entrance by 320 thousand.

At the same time, the volume of throughput operations is far from being restored to the level of 2019. Despite some recovery due to the tourist season, in recent months, cross-border traffic accounted for about a third of the cross-section volumes in previous years.. At least in part, this reduction can be explained by the actual cessation of local border traffic due to the need to remain on observation for a certain time after crossing the border.. Such traffic, according to the Polish Border Service, accounted for about a quarter of all crossing operations on the Ukrainian-Polish border before the restrictions were introduced.. On the other hand, the data show a relatively rapid recovery of traffic on the border with Hungary and Romania, which may indicate, in particular, the redirection of migration flows, depending on the stringency of quarantine regulation of neighboring countries, including transit travel.

What national banks say?

Unfortunately, the data of the National Bank of Ukraine do not allow for a quick assessment of the impact of quarantine measures on migrants' remittances.. First of all, the NBU data on transfers depends significantly on the method that the NBU uses to assess remittances sent through informal channels.. It is significant that at the end of the first half of the year, the NBU reports on an increase in the share of remittances that were sent through official channels, namely bank accounts and funds transfer systems. It is likely that the usual informal channels (such as transfers through friends, transport drivers) during the quarantine and restrictions on passenger traffic became less accessible to Ukrainians and they temporarily reoriented to more accessible official channels.

However, an analysis of the mirror statistics of the national banks of Poland and Russia on the remuneration of workers and transfers sent to Ukraine in the second quarter (which, judging by the calculations, was used in previous periods by the NBU itself to estimate the share of receipts through unofficial channels) shows that the NBU underestimates. In the case of Poland, the estimate of the total volume of all remittances depends significantly on the NBU's estimate of informal transfers, since from this country usually only 7% of all transfers came through official channels.. The primary data published by the NBU are not final, and the regulator can view the statistics for a certain time after publication, therefore it is important not to make hasty conclusions about the impact of quarantine on remittances.

Data from the country of destination of labor migrants (example of Poland) Administrative data and data from the registers of Poland, the main country of destination for labor migration, also indicate an improvement in the situation. The number of Ukrainians officially working on the basis of an employment contract and insured by the Polish social insurance fund began to decrease immediately after the introduction of quarantine. As of June 2020, almost 60 thousand. fewer Ukrainians than in pre-quarantine February. As of June, compared to February, the largest decrease was seen in the number of insured persons working in the administrative services, which includes employment agencies (by about 30%), temporary accommodation and food (by about 15%), as well as the processing industry (by about.

It is indicative that the decrease in the number of insured persons was less than the number of persons who left Poland during this period, from which the statistical office of Poland makes the assumption that mainly those who worked on the basis of civil law agreements left were already unemployed at the time of the introduction of quarantine restrictions.. It is civil law agreements that are most often used to hire Ukrainians using simplified mechanisms, which have been very popular among labor migrants for several years.. When Ukrainians were attracted to perform work on the basis of declarations on the assignment of work to a foreigner (in 2019, such were issued 1.5 million), only one in four was concluded an employment contract, and on the basis of a permit for seasonal work (in 2019, such were issued 130 thousand. ) - only in 3% of cases.

After easing tough quarantine restrictions, opening borders and restoring international transport links, the number of persons registered with the Polish pension fund began to grow and reached the level of February in September. At the same time, the number of declarations and permits for seasonal employment as of September did not reach the level of 2019. The latter does not necessarily mean a decrease in the number of migrants in Poland, because at least some of them have remained in the country since March 14, because the Polish government has extended the validity of permits for the duration of the quarantine..

The signs of a relatively rapid recovery of labor migration indicate that it is an integral part of the life strategies of many families in Ukraine.. Despite high health risks and an unprotected position in the labor market of destination countries, many Ukrainians cannot even for a relatively short time give up this source of income..

*** Recall that by 2050, the population of Ukraine may decrease by 18%. Such data is provided by the United Nations. Young people and intellectuals are leaving Ukraine, more than half of whom, according to social studies, do not see the prospects for life in Ukraine.