We do not know how Moscow will behave if its henchmen begin to lose power for real. Not only Russian but also Ukrainian commentators are trying to convince in the dissimilarity of the Ukrainian events of 2013-2014 and protests in Armenia. Even the press secretary of the Russian president Dmitry Peskov does not see parallels. And his colleague from the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova even congratulated the Armenian people with the resignation of the authoritarian ruler. And these congratulations convince Ukrainian observers that in Yerevan there is no Maidan. Otherwise, why would Moscow want to congratulate the Armenians? Well, let's start with the fact that the victory in the presidential election in the United States of Donald Trump - the real gravedigger of the Russian economy and the normal life of the oligarchs - also aroused genuine joy in Moscow. Until we understand that the authorities in the neighboring country are classic idiots, we will not learn to predict their actions and give their words. Armenia is much more dependent on Russia than Ukraine. Sargsyan's resignation does not mean the collapse of this dependence, all the more so since all the country's leaders remain on their positions, the Republican Party, the Armenian "United Russia". We do not know how Moscow will behave if its henchmen begin to lose power for real. And - most importantly - we do not know how the Armenian law enforcers will behave. Moscow points to the peaceful nature of the Armenian protests - and this is contrasted with what is happening in Yerevan, the Ukrainian Maidan. But the Maidan was a peaceful protest before the use of force "Berkut". He turned into a power confrontation only after trying to disperse the protest. But the Armenian protest of 2008 was not peaceful at all - it was dispersed, people were killed, the protest leader Nikol Pashinyan (the same one) was imprisoned. But the peaceful Ukrainian Maidan of 2004. And it can be compared to the events on the streets of Yerevan today - until the blood was spilled on these streets. Because what we see today is only the first phase of the Maidan. This is a situation where the ruling group does not yet feel the real threat of its power and money. And people still expect to push this group away from power through peaceful protest. It is possible that the Armenian authorities will manage to "wait out" the protest - this is what Yanukovych was going to do at the first stage of the Ukrainian Maidan. It is possible that the Armenian authorities will be able to disperse the protest by force - then the Russian leaders and their speakers will no longer welcome people on the streets. And it is quite possible that the Armenian authorities will have to withdraw and cede the power of the opposition. That the plans that its representatives are discussing today in Moscow will collapse. Then in Armenia will happen what happened in Ukraine after the Maidan - the war will begin. For Ukraine, the weak point was the Crimea and Donbass. Weak place of Armenia - Karabakh. An attempt to solve the Karabakh problem by force will be taken literally the next day after the collapse of the current Armenian government. And in Moscow they will only shrug their shoulders and urge Armenia and Azerbaijan to negotiate. This, by the way, is what the supporters of power and what they do not want to hear and understand street now say. But supporters of the authorities are right: revolution always leads to disorganization of the state machine and this is always used by the enemy. Supporters of the Ukrainian Maidan could not even imagine the reaction of Russia to their victory. Forecasts that after the Olympics in Sochi, Putin "will deal with" Ukraine just was not taken seriously. Proponents of protests in Yerevan do not believe in a new big war. In addition, both there and there, most of the protesters are young people who are used to peace, and not to war. On the other hand, there is always a question that every participant in the protest must answer to himself: is Paris worth the mass? Does the territorial integrity of Ukraine make sense - when payment for it is dictatorship, despair, life in the colony of Russia?

Does it make sense for Armenia to retain control over Karabakh and the border areas of Azerbaijan - when payment for it is dictatorship, despair, life in the colony of Russia? But Ukraine until 2014 was an ordinary Russian colony. And Armenia today is just a Russian colony. The colony, whose inhabitants are fighting for their freedom. They just think they are fighting their authority. But in fact they are fighting with the Russian governors of this power. They are fighting with Putin. And such a struggle in the event of its success is never just a street festival. Original.