For sure, what will be written below, will look like a fantasy, but we call it version or probability. Much of what we called for or what was described as an admission has already become a normal reality, to which no one is paying special attention. In order not to dive into the mass of confirmations of this provision, we simply remind that for various reasons we considered it right to resign to a number of Ukrainian politicians. As you can see, this program is implemented more than 50%. In addition, we noted the inevitability of such a step as the introduction of a visa (at least) regime with the Russian Federation.
Right now we are witnessing the final part of this event and the report of the departments on the readiness for the launch of the event. Of course, the most important assumption that the Russian Federation will begin to fall apart is still in the category of prospects, but here we have too little information from the States and Germany to assess the pace of this process. The States depend on the general tightening of the nuts, and from Germany the moment when it stops taking Russian gas and oil. Each individually or both together, these players will make the process of half-life of the Russian Federation a matter of several months. So the chicken coop has not collapsed just because the Russian population has degraded so much that it can not defend its future, which before their very eyes takes the form of a toilet bowl instead of a toilet.
Nevertheless, even in the leadership of Russia itself, it has long been understood and imagined where everything is going, although it is also difficult for them to calculate the tempo. The fact is that Russia's foreign policy, a model of the 19th century, rested on the technological barrier of the 21st century and it was long, but the situation takes on its own outlines. That is, everyone understands everything and the tales of the Putin-Lavrovs no longer touch anyone.
The tactics of a hybrid war have completely exhausted itself and a strategy has clearly followed it. And the strategy is simple. The set of tools that Russia used in the aggression against Ukraine has its clear timeframe. Putin either did not need to get involved in this business from the very beginning, trying to work bribery and recruitment, as he did in Europe and the US, or to pack the whole military operation in 2-3 months so that the hybrid does not shed and does not crawl. Only in this case it was possible to stretch out the occupation, when the world community did not manage to come together in consensus on this situation. For various reasons, this did not succeed and the hybrid died.
People quite far from events, with a few mouse clicks can give themselves a simple answer to the question about what is happening in Ukraine. By the way, it can be done by anyone. First, we need to launch the Google Earth program and find the settlement Izvarino on the south-eastern border of the Donetsk region. There is a border crossing between Ukraine and Russia. Now there are current satellite images from the summer of 2016. Having carefully examined the vicinity of the crossing point and the terminals on the territory of Ukraine and the Russian Federation, everyone will understand what happened there. Where and how the funnels are located and what the terminals look like, will say for itself and indicate where the war came from in Ukraine.
The same simple manipulations will also point to what is expected in the Russian Federation. In the border areas of the Rostov region of the Russian Federation, work has begun to strengthen the border with fortifications and other. This means that 3 years ago, Russia simply did not have to deal with these things, and in the fourth year of the war it took. Indeed, analyzing what is written from that side, it becomes clear that the Russian Federation is not simply considering the option that it will have to defend itself, but defense plans have already been developed, plans have been drawn up, including fortifications, funds have already been allocated and relevant Of work.
But there are rebellious enclaves on that side of the border, almost 100 km deep, and there are standing, including Russian troops. In this situation, pouring concrete into the ground is stupid. The only conclusion that arises from this situation is that Moscow is already preparing for the fact that Lugandon will not be very soon and the very unfriendly army of Ukraine will leave for the border. In this concept, just, and fit all these activities.
This turn of events is directly opposite to what happened in the autumn-winter of 2014-2015, when the arrangement of defensive lines was not even close on the agenda. On the contrary, this APU spent thousands of tons of reinforced concrete to strengthen positions on the directions of possible enemy strikes. Now it is done by Russians.
Moreover, if we believe the statements of the leaders of the Crimean Tatars, the Russians brought about 5 nuclear weapons to the Crimean peninsula, than violated all possible treaties and conventions. This step should be considered in the same plane as the development of the defense lines in the Rostov region.
The nuclear weapons were delivered in order to create the maximum of the APU problems when expelling Russians from the Crimea. There is no other justification for this, since the transfer of nuclear munitions 100 kilometers west of places on its territory from which it is possible to launch delivery vehicles is stupid. So this is a step of desperation caused by the prospect of expelling the invaders.
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