On the eve of February 24, a number of experts in the field of defense, network wars, analyzing geopolitical relations Europe-Russia-Eurasia, who gathered at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, gave their assessment of the further course of events on the Ukrainian front.

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They analyzed the key factors leading up to the war and highlights from this year to better assess the reasons that led to the current state of affairs.. Thoughts on this subject were collected by Voice of America.

At the beginning of the war, Ukraine was underestimated in its intransigence and desperate struggle, media admit. But Kyiv endured.

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Shift the trajectory of "

Michael Kimmage, a former US State Department official with the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program (Michael Kimmage, CSIS), believes that today Putin has changed his rhetoric. Instead of “giving Ukraine into the hands of Western Europe and the United States”, Russia should “break it apart” and, as it were, “shift the entire trajectory of American policy in the region, the trajectory of Europe” in another direction”.

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And Dara Massicot, senior fellow at the RAND Corporation (Dara Massicot), which conducts research in the field of defense, interethnic relations, information and network wars, notes:.

“A concerted effort has been made at many levels in the United States not only to maintain intelligence contacts with the Ukrainians and NATO, but also to communicate directly with the Russians.. This was done at several levels: the State Department, through the Biden-Putin direct channel. Privately and publicly, it was said: “America is aware of your invasion plans. You will face serious consequences."

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Massicot says the Kremlin hoped that Kyiv would not fight so radically, and Western assistance would be insignificant.

In her opinion, understanding the military plans of Russia is the "

Miscalculations of Putin and the Kremlin.

Mr. Kimmage believes that one of the Kremlin's miscalculations is the expectation that Vladimir Zelensky will flee the country like Yanukovych in 2014.

At the same time, the interviewed publication notes that a huge role in Putin's miscalculations was played by the expectation that the West would not particularly resist a blow to Ukraine due to energy dependence on supplies from the Russian Federation..

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Kimmage attributes Kyiv’s success to effective decentralization processes: “It’s not just the soldiers who fight valiantly on the front lines—millions of people work behind the lines to win.. What Putin considered Ukraine's weakness turned out to be its strength,"

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Russia's new plans.

At the initial stage, Moscow expected that if there was resistance, that the arsenals for the fight would be exhausted by spring.

At the same time, the autumn mobilization in the Russian Federation is the beginning of acceptance of what is happening, the new realities into which the Kremlin has dragged Russia, Dara Massikot believes..

The Russians actually went on the defensive. Kremlin troops also began to fortify positions, dig trenches - all this in an attempt to hinder Kyiv's counteroffensive..

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The publication also mentions satellite images of the construction of tent camps for thousands of Russian soldiers, as well as the process of exporting equipment from warehouses in Siberia..

What to expect from Moscow.

The Kremlin has lost “most of its trained personnel” so it is moving reinforcements from Siberia and the Far East, says Massicot, and notes that there is a discrepancy between Moscow’s expectations of its troops and reality.

And also asks the question “does anyone in Russia see what they see in the West? Facebook and Twitter are down and YouTube is not fully functional."

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Long war and the role of the economy.

Michael Kimmage is convinced that there will be " Being crippled by sanctions in the economic sphere, Russia “will try to sow chaos in Ukraine and Europe”.

Revolution in Moldova. Attempts.

“I expect different attacks: 2016-scale cyberattacks that hit the critical infrastructure of the banking system of a European country, or attempts to interfere in politics.

There is already news that Russia is trying to stage a coup in Moldova,” said Michael Kimmage..

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Snegovaya voiced one of the scenarios that are unpleasant but obvious to the Kremlin: “This is a war with the West, not just a war with Ukraine. This is a proxy war with the West. Putin practically admitted that for him this is a clear attempt to show not only to Ukraine and neighboring states, but also to other countries of the world that the West can be challenged..