From LED bulbs to military training and billions of euros, the European Union's assistance to Ukraine is quite extensive. Ursula von der Leyen and most of the members of her European Commission, as well as Charles Michel, President of the European Council, visited Kyiv on February 3 to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of a country at war, and members of his team. But helping is one thing, joining a club is another. Denys Shmyhal, Prime Minister of Ukraine, said earlier this week that his country has " This is magical thinking, writes The Economist, but does not exclude radical changes in Ukraine's relations with the club in the coming years..

" She arrived with a €450m aid package, bringing total EU wartime aid to Ukraine, including its member states, to €50bn.. (EU aid includes 35 million low-wattage LED bulbs, a powerful symbol as Russian missiles have knocked out much of Ukraine's power supply). But Ms von der Leyen was careful not to make any promises regarding the timing of EU accession.. "

Zelensky said on his nightly broadcast to the whole country on February 2 that Ukraine " It looks incredible. But in any case, starting negotiations is not the same as ending them.. In June, Ukraine, along with Moldova, became an official candidate for EU membership, an idea that would have been considered fantastic prior to the February 24, 2022 invasion.. Other than Turkey, whose EU bid has long since stalled, until June, the only countries promised prospective EU membership were six countries in the Western Balkans.. But their slow progress is unlikely to inspire hope in Kyiv.. North Macedonia has been a candidate since 2005, Montenegro has been negotiating since 2012 and Serbia since 2014.

However, Sergiy Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a think tank, believes that Ukraine can join the EU within two years because Europe has already changed a lot.. When the invasion began, he says, it was hard to believe that the EU could remain united in the face of Russian aggression and pour so much aid into Ukraine.. Why not open the doors of the club completely for Ukraine? The war also accelerated the transformation of Ukraine " Kuzan believes that most EU leaders understand that "

However, Gerald Knaus, chairman of the Berlin-based European think tank Stability Initiative, says that Ukraine's accession to the EU in two years is " There would be too much opposition from the current members, who are afraid of losing funding and influence. For any new country to join, Knaus says, two things must happen: it must meet all EU standards, and the EU itself must change.. Making decisions is quite difficult with 27 members; even more members risk making this impossible. That is why the leaders of France and Germany argue that the expansion of the EU is impossible before the reform of the EU..

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This does not mean that Ukraine or the Balkan Six should give up their ambitions.. Indeed, among the blizzard of agreements signed in Kyiv, there was one helping Ukrainian companies gain access to the EU single market.. According to Knaus, the accession of Ukraine, as well as the Western Balkans, to the single market as a first step is more realistic than the desire to immediately become an EU member.. This will give these countries huge economic advantages without fundamentally changing the political structure of the EU..

Balkan leaders fear that mere membership in the single market will turn into a waiting room with no way out.

But if Ukraine and the EU chose this option, Knaus says, the Balkan countries would gladly follow suit.. Ukrainian refugees already enjoy de facto freedom of movement within the EU under a temporary club protection scheme that was activated after the start of the war.. Full membership in the single market won't be such a big jump.

How experts evaluate Ukraine's implementation of the seven recommendations of the European Commission for joining the EU, says Marianna Fakhurdinova in the article "