For two months, the authorities of the city of Kyiv have been actively debating a simple question: whether to put up the Main Christmas Tree of the City, whether to decorate it, and if so, how exactly? Born in the cradle of Soviet power, this Kyiv city council, as always, brought to the attention of citizens not what is important, but what distracts from real problems. Among which, in October-December 2022, there was no choice of Christmas tree decorations. Significantly more important were the topics of survival - water, electricity, heat, garbage disposal, transport, public safety, the creation of shelters and bomb shelters..

This introduction about Kyiv illustrates the approach of the Ukrainian authorities as a whole to the main problems of the nation, which are not discussed, which are almost never remembered, but on which it depends tomorrow, the day after tomorrow and the future for years to come.. At the same time, this is being discussed outside of Ukraine — from Poland to China, from Washington to Bucharest.. And what are they preparing for us

Christmas present.

In the Soviet tradition, under November 7 (for the younger reader - the day of the " In the USSR - to open bridges or canals, in the Euro-Atlantic - to organize gigantic discounts in stores for all goods and products. Now many politicians and non-politicians there have a desire to “bring peace to Ukraine” as a kind of Christmas surprise, since there is no other gift, because prices are only rising, and inflation is also multiplying them.

During the last month, at least about a dozen publications on the theme of " The authors of some of them are well-known and influential people who have money, organizations, and even real power behind them.. And if they supposedly do not need to be answered, then at least you should think about the content. Moreover, among the authors there are people close to Ukraine, real friends of Ukraine, if we can talk about friendship in international relations..

You should probably start with the question: who is fighting against Ukraine? Who is the aggressor? Who do Ukrainians and the world that supports them deal with (aka Euro-Atlantic)?

The well-known and deep Russian exile (foreign agent) Leonid Gozman assures that we are talking about Vladimir Putin, President. In particular, he believes that “the whole tragedy today is the result of the inadequacy of one person, his illusions, ambitions, desire to remain in history not as he remains, but as a great winner of everything that offended him”. Claiming that the Russians (Russian or pro-Russian residents of the Russian Federation) are not imperials, he is only partially right: they are chauvinists. And chauvinism, as you know, is inherent in nations - the owners of empires. And if we agree with the author that the inhabitants did not receive much benefit from the imperial policy of the Russian tsars / emperors, then forget about the superiority over the “foreigners” cultivated over the centuries, which has turned today into the dominant call “kill the Ukrainian! "

Is this really the dominant appeal among the population of the Russian Federation? Different sociologists prove different things, some report about 70%, some about 30% who are ready to “kill”, but they don’t argue about the prevalence of these and even about the absence of competing calls.

From Gozman's statement, the conclusion follows: Putin and his inner circle will "

Let us disagree with such a rosy vision. “The monster (as it has been known since school) is oblo, mischievous, huge, staring and barking”. From the FSO to the National Guard, the Prosecutor's Office and Rospotrebnadzor; from numerous ministries and departments and their senior and middle staff to local officials; from school principals to public utilities managers; from the army corps to the last secret agent in the FSB system - millions of people, their family members are this monster, and Putin, in fact, is their emanation, and not a ruthless overseer, a hero nurtured in dreams, and not a slave owner. The anti-Ukrainian cannibalistic interviews of ordinary citizens of the Russian Federation, replicated on screens, are not fakes, although they do not reflect the views of all the conditional 140 million inhabitants. The behavior of Russian passport holders abroad, about which a lot has been written and said, is irrefutable evidence of arrogance, anger, arrogance, contempt for others and others, which in the case of Ukraine turns into “kill the Ukrainian!

It is a pity that such self-awareness is widely rooted in the minds of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation. This will require in the future a long-term correction, social treatment. And it will cost the world dearly, and most of all, the neighbors. Sad but true.

Closer to the truth about the customers and executors of the war, it seems, experts from the Carnegie Center (Carnegie Europe) have come up. Stefan Meister, head of the International Order and Democracy Program at the German Council for Foreign Relations, has a more critical view of " He states that the question is not about Putin and the inner circle, that Russian political and economic forces have all recently been aimed at corrupting and capturing neighbors, acting on the basis of colonial and imperial traditions.. Against this background, every time, starting with the aggression against Georgia, and especially after the conquest of Crimea and the incitement of war in the Donbass, the European Union assumed that the anti-democratic, and then imperial actions of the Russian Federation are rather temporary, situational, are not politics, but only random. Russia was issued another carte blanche, given a new time to " A striking example of such myopia was the “Five Guiding Principles for EU Relations with Russia” of March 2016, where “full implementation of the Minsk agreements” appears first.. The fifth, by the way, was " The author regrets that this happened, but explains this approach by the lack of a unified position in Brussels, which made it impossible to unanimously stop Moscow and replace empty “condemnations” with real actions.

What Stefan Meister remembers little about is the possibility of each specific, individual EU state to pursue such a policy towards Moscow, which followed from the specific actions of the latter. Germany deliberately got into the needle of gas and oil dependence, counting on quick benefits, despite the possible dire consequences. Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria, Italy (and the list is inexhaustible) - almost everyone, who is more, who is less, found an excuse or reason for " France sold guns, Britain sold safes and housing, Spain sold resorts. “Member states and EU institutions were ineffective in counteracting the vested interests of the Russian Federation,” Meister agrees. That is why Russia continued to train shock troops, absorb Belarus and prepare attacks on Ukraine, Kazakhstan (Baltic? ) and still opposing Georgia. Even the public humiliation of European diplomacy chief Josep Borrell during a visit to Moscow in February 2021 did not open the eyes of EU leaders to a new reality.. I had to wait until next February..

But now, Meister believes, everything has changed.. The Europeans recognized that without NATO there is no security in Europe, that the United States of America is the main guarantor of this security, and the main proof is that “without American military and financial support, the Ukrainian state would no longer exist”. All three positions are correct. It's not right that everything has changed in Europe. The example of Hungary's actions, mentioned as allegedly isolated, is in fact much more important. If only because in different cases Slovakia, and Cyprus, and even the Netherlands, who are very worried about the fate of Yakut diamonds, act in a similar way.. In the European Union, I dare say, a lot has changed, and first of all, public opinion about foreign policy and the assessment of Ukraine and Russia. But the position of many elites, mainly economic ones, has only slightly changed, and it was not by chance that the French president blurted out, and even from Washington, about “security guarantees for Russia” after the end of the war, and not about security guarantees for Ukraine.. To a certain extent, the author acknowledges this, foreseeing that the European internal " Therefore, Stefan Meister proposes his own “Seven Points” as the future policy of the EU, in contrast to the “Five Guiding Principles…” of the 2016 model.

The first is the Put Ukraine First item, which in an arbitrary translation sounds like “Ukraine First”. But this is not about the victory of Ukraine in the war, which must be achieved first of all. This is a medium-term dimension, in which it is necessary to deal with the integration of Ukraine and neighboring Moldova (Georgia? ) in the EU in order to use this example to contribute to changes in Russia in the future. Do Ukrainians agree to continue to consider themselves as a tool, as a tool with which the EU/Euro-Atlantic will avoid the Russian threat Can Ukraine, no matter how successful it becomes in eight to ten years, finally be able to influence the minds of those 140 million that they want democratic rule, the rule of law, etc.?. These questions are not answered.

The second of Meister's seven points is " Behind the ambitious title are words about the need to integrate the Western Balkans, to strengthen in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, in particular through energy resources. The same intentions were expressed in Brussels twenty years ago, and they even made bureaucratic structures and assistance programs that disappeared without a trace under pressure from the realists from the Kremlin..

The third paragraph (the other paragraphs are tactical steps that are not significant) provides for “remembering Russian civil society”. There is a consensus in Ukraine that there is no such thing as society in Russia. This point of view is supported by the leading Russian oppositionists, regardless of their position on the ownership of Crimea.. The embryos of civil society were crushed by Putin's guardsmen already on Bolotnaya, the remains of the embryos were swept away over the past two or three years. Entrusting the EU with the task of creating Russian-language platforms, supporting "

The latter leads to the final point for the EU from Stefan Meister - " It is about peacekeeping. Not about protecting peaceful life, not about destroying the aggressor, which is what Ukraine is doing now. Not about strengthening the defense potential, defense industries, not about new technologies, budgets, strengthening crisis interaction (NATO should have been involved in this, but the author does not even say these words! And this, in fact, is a recipe for the revival of Russian imperialism-fascism after Ukraine stops it.

Across the ocean is a different vision of the present and possible future offered to Ukrainians by a group of American politicians and practitioners led by former US national security adviser Stephen Hadley. Among the authors and experts are two former US ambassadors in Kyiv. Their first point: The US must clearly declare that it will support Ukraine's victory and Russia's defeat in the sense of the Kremlin's strategic goal to destroy the Ukrainian nation and Ukrainian identity.. Yes, we are not talking about the destruction of the Russian Federation as a political structure, its collapse as a state or a trident on Red Square. But arms assistance must be stepped up and ensure the implementation of " As a guarantee for Ukraine for the future - accession to the European Union and, attention, the following:.

– joining NATO as soon as there is a consensus of all member states;

- pending - provision of bilateral security guarantees from countries such as the USA, Britain, Poland;

- providing Western assistance to Ukraine to maintain sufficient defense capabilities, modeled on the interaction between the United States and Israel, to be able to defeat Russia in the event of a new attack.

We see significant differences from European estimates and plans.

Going even further in the vision of the future for Ukraine and the tasks for today are two other American authors - Peter Raf and Ken Kasapoglu from the newly formed Center for Europe and Eurasia of the Hudson Institute, who can be considered radicals.. The “confinement” strategy that the administration of President Joe Biden is actually supporting in Ukraine does not provide for a victory for Ukraine, it is aimed at achieving negotiations and reconciliation, they note. That is why more powerful weapons, planes, tanks, etc., do not come from Washington.. Ukraine is bleeding, at the same time in the Russian Federation - mobilization, the Euro-Atlantic is cut off from energy carriers, inflation is galloping, in Europe the “Putinfershteers” are raising their heads, winter is coming. The authors consider the current approach of the administration to be fundamentally wrong.. The "

- provide the Armed Forces with a sufficient number of air defense systems (NASAMS);

— provide Ukraine with long-range tactical missiles (ATACMS) and MQ-1C Gray Eagle drones armed with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles;

- to help Germany in allocating at least 90 Leopard tanks for Ukraine, transferring, for example, several of its own Abrams tanks.

And all this - immediately.

The fate of European security is being decided on the margins of Ukraine, the authors sum up. Therefore, Biden's strategy should be the strategy of her victory and reaching the borders.. This will make it possible to transform imperial Russia into a normal nation-state.. By the way, in early December, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania stated this briefly and in one paragraph: “Why don’t we send Ukraine all the funds necessary to end the war? Why we avoid specifics during the discussion on Ukraine's membership in NATO? Because there is still a belief that after the war you can return to business as usual, and February 24 was just a glitch?

Do Ukraine need a gift?

During the aggression, soon after the unexpected defeat near Kyiv and Chernigov, Russia consistently resorted to various methods of splitting the Euro-Atlantic, strategic fakes and intimidation..

The most famous is the announcement of readiness to use nuclear weapons " The vagueness in the wording provided that this could happen at any time without any prerequisites or explanations.. The combined rebuff of the Euro-Atlantic, the dissatisfaction of the major Asian states forced the Kremlin to play back.

Next is the slander about the creation of a “dirty” nuclear bomb in Ukraine: it was also repeatedly refuted and even ridiculed, so it died out on its own..

An attempt to block the "

Numerous raids on Ukraine at the UN - on human rights issues, compliance with the rules and laws of war, the maintenance of prisoners, etc.. — demonstrated the absurdity of Russian narratives and the failure of Russian diplomacy. Added to this were the catastrophic results for Russia of voting for resolutions on aggression, reparations, its expulsion from a number of governing bodies of the UN and other international organizations, from sports, art, and the information space..

Every day, with every new report about the defeat of Moscow's troops, about the exposure of their atrocities in the liberated territories, the past respect or attention to Russia in the world turns into neglect, hatred or dismissal in the best, Chinese, case..

Does Ukraine need any special gift for Christmas 2022 in such a situation Are we waiting for “peace” today, because we are afraid to stay under the tree in darkness, hunger and cold? Will we sit down at the table with those whom the president, prime minister, speaker, society call fascists, murderers and call for trial against them?

Haste hurts, especially when it comes to an experienced, well-armed enemy with almost inexhaustible resources.. Rejoicing at the numerous sanctions measures in the EU, within the framework of the G7, do we not forget about the colossal oil profits that can support the Moscow regime and the amazingly submissive population for more than one year?

The answer will be even more obvious when we hear the opinion of Ukrainian citizens, and most importantly, people in military uniform..

The desire for peace / truce in nine out of ten respondents is accompanied by the word " And this is again about reaching the borders of 1991, punishing the aggressors, compensating for losses. Looks like we won't be done before Christmas..

For the Euro-Atlantic political establishment, this approach looks maximalist. And even the Hudson Institute’s most pro-Ukrainian representatives add cautious advice for Kyiv in their review: “It would be prudent to find a compromise, sooner or later.”.

The art of the possible.

It is these words - " It is about fixing what is desirable today and achieving what is possible tomorrow..

A message flashed in the media that the United States planned to transfer fighter jets to Ukraine, but China persuaded them not to do this in exchange for keeping the Russian Federation from using nuclear weapons. Let's assume it's a hoax.

But the blocking by Hungary of Ukraine's interaction with NATO, the provision of 18 billion euros in assistance from EU funds and anti-Russian sanctions is not an invention. And not fiction - Turkey's containment of NATO expansion.

What is planned today in Kyiv and its most consistent allies - foreign capitals, may look unacceptable somewhere far away. And from there, from afar, we will hear disagreement that we cannot ignore. The phrase about the role of the United States as the defense and financial savior of Ukraine is as true as it has no alternative.

The USA is far away, but the Bosphorus is close. Why shouldn’t they be interested in the constitution of the “future Crimean Tatar Autonomous Republic”? Why don’t the Germans propose the restoration of a tripartite consortium for the Ukrainian gas transportation system, when the “northern streams” have already been destroyed? Why not create a \? It’s hard for us to imagine what kind of own plans for the future of the Russian Federation (and Ukraine as a “little brother”) exist in Washington, Ankara, Beijing, Berlin, Paris. Each of them can (and will) interfere more and more in the future conditions of the world.. There may be many reasons, historical grievances or modern economic interests from neighbors and non-neighbors, which will miraculously appear on the table as soon as representatives of Ukraine agree to come to this table..

One of Stefan Meister's " According to this logic, one day Ukraine, almost a member of the EU, may hear from Brussels an instruction to act differently from what it had planned for itself, even with regard to Russia..

Let's be realistic: winning on the fronts, maintaining the functionality of the state, preserving the fundamental rights and freedoms and the activity of civil society in the conditions of martial law and brutal war, we remain extremely dependent as a country in deciding our future. How to live with it and whether it is necessary to put up with it? Will the most perfect diplomacy save our \?

Gifts to yourself.

It's really not so tragic.. Yes, Ukraine is dependent. But others depend on her.

The United States of America has invested a lot of money, a lot of weapons and incomparably more political authority in Ukraine. The defeat of Kyiv, the collapse of the Ukrainian state would lead to catastrophic consequences for the United States and all its allies in the world. Moreover, the very idea of \u200b\u200bdemocracy, international law, international security, on which prosperity and security have been based since the Second World War, would suffer significantly.. The balance of power between the countries of market democracy and authoritarian (+ totalitarian) regimes would noticeably change, the economic opportunities of the former would sharply weaken.. It is difficult to say how quickly (and indeed) the Euro-Atlantic would find the strength to return to the role of a conductor of humanity. Ukraine has unwittingly become the straw that can break the back of the Euro-Atlantic world if it does not take care of its fate in full force..

Germany is also dependent on Ukraine, where there are now a million of our emigrants, whom its citizens support. Poland is dependent, France is dependent, which needs new balances in Europe after Brexit and the humiliating crawl out of Africa. Turkey is also dependent, wishing to become a regional hegemon. They are dependent on us, and it largely depends on them whether Ukraine will get everything it wants, whether it will win the war the way it sees it.. Because you can not get everything, but only a part.

Half help in the last phase of the war remains an option. It will be difficult to discard it in our case, and we need to look for arguments today. The country is destroyed, half of the territory is mined for decades to come, a quarter of the population is abroad, and many have already settled down, the treasury is empty, the army is huge and does not really want to be demobilized, the population has unmeasured weapons, schools and medicine are in ruins.

Yes, the Europeans are interested in seeing peace, security, and a free market reign here.. But they won't do it for us.. Arguments like “we shed blood for you” will not work: we shed blood primarily for ourselves, and largely through our own fault, because short-sightedly allowed corrupt, stupid or repeat offenders to power. Not everything is so rosy now. Even during the existential war, homegrown chamberlains were found in Kyiv, who in March 2022 called for giving up everything that had already been seized so that generous Moscow would leave at least a piece. By the way, they continue to hold positions and teach how to live. The only serious trump card in Ukrainian hands is the courage and bravery of its defenders in the broadest sense of the word:

fighters, commanders, volunteers, donors, powerful public figures, conscious politicians who value them and will listen to them.

It is they who must answer today the question of external friends, it is they who must decide tomorrow what kind of negotiations, with whom and when to start. A gift under the Christmas tree - and not necessarily for Christmas! - must put themselves. Christmas tree - she's evergreen. She will remain as attractive in the summer.

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Read more articles by Andrey Veselovsky at the link.