Putin received another, additional tool to destabilize the states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. These are Russian migrants leaving Russia by the hundreds of thousands in recent weeks..

The mass exodus of Russians began after Putin announced a " Standing for several days in long queues at border points, evaders seek to get to Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia. There they are going to wait out the " Or they use these states as a transit point to go further to European (Germany, France, etc.). ) or Asian countries (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Uzbekistan, Egypt, UAE).

Over the past ten years, this is the third wave of migration from Russia.

The first wave of those who left took place in 2014, when Russia occupied Donbass and Crimea. Among them are many political emigrants, as well as IT people who moved to other countries due to low taxation.. The second wave happened after February 24. Some left for fear of persecution due to the “fake law”. Others were among the employees of the Russian divisions of foreign companies whose central offices took their employees to neutral countries.

And now people are again fleeing en masse from mobilization. Among the migrants there are those who do not agree with the policy of Russia, but not only " The edition " In turn, Forbes writes that since September 21 (the beginning of the announcement of mobilization), 700 thousand citizens left the country. And although there are some tourists among the Russians who left, it is unlikely that there are many of them in the total volume of those who left the Russian Federation over the past two weeks..

Most Russians - about 200 thousand - rushed to Kazakhstan. (At the same time, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the country, Marat Akhmetzhanov, noted that 148 thousand people left the country, however, without specifying where. ) According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country, another 68,887 people arrived in Georgia from September 21 to 30. But on October 3, Deputy Interior Minister Alexander Darakhvelidze said that about six thousand people a day have been entering Georgia in recent days.. In other words, the number of Russians who entered the country may exceed 80 thousand people..

For Georgia and Kazakhstan, whose population is 3.7 and 17.7 million respectively, this is a huge number of migrants.. Despite the fact that although some of them leave for other countries, they still significantly change the social and political landscape of Georgia and Kazakhstan, create tension in society and threaten the security of these states. It's not just about the fights that drunk Russians arrange in local bars, the rise in housing and food prices, and the companies opened in these countries that the Kremlin can use for “gray imports”.

Many of the third wave migrants left Russia not because they oppose the war: until September 21, the situation they watched on TV was more than fine with them, and St. George ribbons with Z and V stickers adorned their cars. They believe that \! ”, believe in the genocide of Russians in the Donbass and support the “special operation”. They were forced to leave by the fear of being at the front, and to remove the ribbons and stickers were fears that they would be denied entry.. At the same time, some of the migrants have already managed to fight in Ukraine and commit war crimes..

Coming to Georgia or Kazakhstan, Russians are faced with the fact that, although the authorities are loyal to deviators, the population of these states has a high level of national self-consciousness. In addition, among Georgians and Kazakhstanis, irritation is growing due to the increase in the number of migrants from Russia and the unwillingness of the latter to integrate into local societies.. This is already causing conflict.. Over time there will only be more.. Including with representatives of the Ukrainian diaspora and refugees.

Videos are already circulating on social media showing residents of Georgia and Kazakhstan, many of whom support Ukraine, reacting painfully to Russians shouting “Glory to Russia! and ask visitors: “Whose Crimea? \? As time goes by, the tension will only grow. And Russia can use this as an excuse to interfere in the internal affairs of these countries or even attack them for the sake of “protecting Russian speakers”.

Experts do not rule out that there may be FSB agents among those who arrived, who will not only monitor Russian oppositionists, but also, if necessary, shake the situation..

Recall that in the industrially developed northern regions of Kazakhstan, Russians make up up to half of the population.. In total, Russians in the country are about 15%. And many of them are irritated by Kazakhization - the expansion of the rights of the Kazakh language and the strengthening of the influence of Kazakh-speaking personnel in public administration.. Considering how many times Russian politicians have already threatened Kazakhstan (the texts of ex-president Dmitry Medvedev alone are worth! ), there are fears in the country of the possibility of a Russian invasion.

The fear that the Kremlin will decide to repeat August 2008 and invade Georgia largely determines the position of official Tbilisi, which defiantly distances itself from Kyiv. At the same time, the fear of provoking Moscow has also led to the fact that recently the Georgian authorities have begun to refuse entry to Georgia to “good Russians” — Russians who disagree with Putin’s policies.. But publicly, the Georgian authorities state that they do not see any threats in connection with the mass arrival of draft dodgers in Georgia..

But the Georgian opposition and representatives of the non-governmental sector see. As Estonian Ambassador to Tbilisi Riina Kaljurand noted, some Georgian parties said that this was an annexation without tanks.. Therefore, the opposition proposes to introduce for Russians, if not a visa regime, then a "

Despite the fact that the two leading countries - Germany and France - declare their readiness to accept deviators, the EU still does not intend to repeat the mistake of the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia and increase potential threats for themselves due to the growth of the Russian diaspora. On September 30, the European Commission recommended tightening the visa regime for Russians: “EU countries should apply a strict approach when assessing the validity of a trip. This also applies to Russian citizens fleeing mobilization.”.

However, according to Interior Ministry spokesman Maximilian Kahl, in Germany, despite the readiness to provide asylum to deviators, the decision to grant asylum will be made individually, based on the results of a thorough check, taking into account specific circumstances and security aspects: “We must not forget about security considerations, especially in. We should always watch (especially for the military) who comes to Germany.”.

Paris adheres to a similar position: Russian deviators will not automatically receive visas to stay in France.

The most stringent approach was taken by the Baltic countries and Poland, which, even before the announcement of partial mobilization, banned the entry of Russians with tourist Schengen visas, regardless of the country of issue. “On the one hand, there are international norms according to which asylum applications must be considered..

On the other hand, one must understand that the majority of Russians are not against the Putin regime and are not supporters of our values,” said Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks, drawing criticism from “good Russians”.

However, the European Union, unlike the states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, is still not going to abandon its policy, having made a choice in favor of preventing potential threats from an increase in the number of Russians in its member countries..

Read more articles by Vladimir Kravchenko at the link.

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