On November 8, the so-called midterm elections will be held in the United States, when the entire composition of the House of Representatives and one third of the US Senate are re-elected.. Most likely, American voters, following a tradition that has been broken only in isolated cases, will take this opportunity to show the president elected two years ago and the entire power team a “yellow card” due to dissatisfaction with their activities and their failure to comply with part of their election promises.. In my opinion, the exactingness of voters to the current government also reflects the unwillingness of US citizens to see an excessive concentration of power in the hands of one political force..

The gurus of American political analysts are almost unanimous that in the midterm elections this year, the Democrats will lose their majority in at least one of the houses of the US Congress.. According to the latest public opinion polls (August 10-17), the Republican Party should win a majority (25-26 seats) in the House of Representatives of the Congress, which is now dominated by Democrats (220 vs. 211 seats for Republicans, 4 seats are vacant). At the same time, the Democratic Party has some chances to retain control over the Senate: now their advantage here is provided only by US Vice President Kamala Harris, who, according to the Constitution, is the head of the Senate and has the right to cast her vote to decide the fate of a particular bill,.

If the forecasts come true, the incumbent US president will actually be deprived of the opportunity to achieve legislative support for his initiatives, since the texts of laws must be adopted by both houses of Congress. Under conditions of divided government, when the president's party does not control the legislative branch of government, the political process in Washington comes to a usual impasse - none of the parties is able to implement its program..

Realizing this, Joe Biden went to great lengths to get Congress to pass (with a Democratic majority) the Inflation Reduction Act in August, which reduces the cost of medical care, invests $ 369 billion. in climate action and increases taxation of corporations and large investors. Combined with an earlier massive infrastructure development program for the country, the bill should form the basis of Biden's political legacy as a "

The Biden administration is counting on recent legislative advances, to which should be added expanded benefits for military veterans, tougher rules on gun sales to citizens, measures to bolster the U.S.'s competitive edge against China in semiconductor manufacturing, and the elimination of leader Al-Farabi..

Indeed, over the past week, the president’s support has increased to 40.6%, but in general, his positions remain vulnerable: Joe Biden’s popularity is inferior even to that of Donald Trump during the same period of the presidency.. Further growth in employment (the unemployment rate is extremely low - 3.5%), wages and incomes of the population plays in favor of the president and his party members, but economic growth is slowing down (real GDP has been declining for the second quarter in a row). A significant number of American economists and CEOs do not rule out the beginning of a recession within the next 12 months. Inflation remains the main economic problem at 8.5%, despite the recent decline in fuel prices.

There are almost three months left before the elections, but it is already clear that their results will depend primarily on the dynamics of economic indicators that have a direct impact on the well-being of Americans. The state of the economy far outpaces (29%) other issues that Americans prioritize - crime, the environment, health care and immigration..

The significance of these midterm elections to the US Congress is that their results will shape the US political landscape for the next two years and, accordingly, will largely determine the parameters of the 2024 election campaign, in particular, whether a Trump vs. Biden rematch will take place..

It would seem that the overwhelming majority of Americans, who now do not want to see any of them as a presidential candidate (57% of those polled against Trump's candidacy and 60% against Biden), exclude the possibility of a repetition of the duel.. However, the current alignment of forces in the Democratic and Republican parties suggests the opposite..

According to CNN, three-quarters of Democrats in 2024 would prefer to see a new presidential candidate (apparently, the majority of Joe Biden's opponents are those who believe that he is not actively promoting the ideas of the " The president’s ambitions are also facilitated by the limited leadership reserve of the Democratic Party: the most popular figure from the pool of candidates to replace Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, with all due respect for her position, cannot be attributed to the most charismatic and effective politicians capable of winning the sympathy of American voters.. Thus, despite his age, Biden has every chance to represent the Democratic Party in the presidential election in 2024, and he has already announced his intention to re-claim the highest position in the state..

Donald Trump firmly holds control of the Republican Party. The candidates supported by him won 94% of the " The " Party ideology is transforming according to the views of the radicalized Republican base, which continues to believe in the myth of the "

Trump remains the leader of the party and, like Biden with the Democrats, is highly likely to become its candidate in the presidential race, even with a number of strong competitors (for example, Florida Governor Ronald DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, former US Representative to the UN Nimrata Haley). His problems with justice may become a hindrance to this, as the former US president is the subject of a number of proceedings - about his role in the attack on Congress on January 6, 2020, attempts to change the results of the presidential election, business activities before being elected president, and illegal possession of classified documents. It is even suggested that as a result of these investigations, he may be deprived of the right to hold electoral office.. At the same time, the “persecution” of Donald Trump contributes to the further radicalization of his supporters, who direct their discontent against state institutions and the Washington establishment..

With any results of the US midterm elections in November, one can expect the continuation or even intensification of the inter-party confrontation in Congress and American politics in general (in particular, some Republicans have already announced their intentions to start impeachment proceedings against President Biden). The range of issues on which there is a national consensus in the United States is extremely limited.. It is extremely important for us that it be preserved in the issue of assistance to Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression..

At first glance, the situation in this sense remains favorable for our state.. In early August (according to a study by researchers at the University of Maryland who constantly monitor this issue), 70% of Americans believed that the United States was doing enough or little to support Ukraine.. To continue their support, they are even ready to make certain economic sacrifices: 62% will not stop the increase in energy costs, and 58% - rising inflation.

However, there are a few " First, while U.S. support for Ukraine remains at a consistently high level, it has declined since the start of the war (at least in terms of the economic price that ordinary Americans are willing to pay for it). Secondly, there is (and tends to increase) a significant difference in the position of adherents of the Democratic and Republican parties: 78% of Democrats and 44% of Republicans are ready to withstand the increase in energy costs.; inflationary pressure - 72% Democrats and 39% Republicans. 46% of Republicans and 42% of independents (compared to 11% of Democrats) share the opinion that the US is doing too much for Ukraine.

The latest figures correlate with the formation in the House of Representatives of a group of Republican congressmen who constantly oppose the provision of weapons and other types of assistance to Ukraine: during the vote of the $ 40 billion aid package in May, there were already 57 of them.; 11 Republican senators voted against him. The group includes fervent supporters of Trump, known for his sympathy for the Russian dictator, which in modern conditions has transformed into Trump's de facto justification for Russian aggression against Ukraine.. All this testifies to the strengthening of the influence of isolationists in the Republican Party.. Their mouthpiece was Tucker Carlson, one of the leading Fox journalists, who, according to him, “does not care what Putin does in Ukraine” (there was information that the Kremlin recommended that the Russian media quote Carlson more often).

Isolationists are still in the minority among US lawmakers. However, it is quite realistic that their number in the new Congress will increase due to the election of new Trumpists to its Republican faction.. Will this affect the constant bipartisan support for Ukraine in the US Congress, which is absolutely necessary for our state in a war It must be admitted that this will depend on factors, most of which are outside the zone of our possible influence.. But we can and must increase the effectiveness of our communication with American lawmakers, and especially with Americans in general, in order to narrow the margin for maneuver by forces that want to push assistance to Ukraine as far as possible on the list of US foreign policy objectives..

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