Photos of the destroyed Mariupol and its defenders, broken equipment on the outskirts of Kyiv and victims in mass graves in Bucha have long become terrible symbols of the Russian-Ukrainian war. A cruel illustration of the war unleashed by the Kremlin will also be a photo of a man clutching his head at the car where his daughter was on fire.. Photo of a man who for many years called for the killing of other people.

The Russian FSB announced the disclosure of the murder of Daria Dugina. And, according to the Russian Chekists, the special services of Ukraine are behind him..

According to the FSB, the perpetrator of the murder was a citizen of Ukraine, 43-year-old Natalya Vovk (Shaban). She allegedly arrived in Russia on July 23 with her 12-year-old daughter Sofia Shaban. They, according to the FSB, rented an apartment in the house where Dugina also lived, and watched her. Vovk and his daughter were at the Tradition festival, where Dugin was present along with her father, the ideologist of Eurasianism and Rashism Alexander Dugin. There, a Ukrainian woman, according to Lubyanka, mined a car, and immediately after it was blown up, she left with her daughter for Estonia.

In support of their version, the Russian special services even posted a photo of Natalia Vovk's alleged identity, which should confirm that the Ukrainian is in the military unit 3057 of the National Guard of Ukraine. (Military unit 3057 is the 12th operational brigade of the NSU named after Dmytro Vishnevetsky, stationed in Mariupol. It also includes the Azov Regiment..

It took only two days for the eagles of Alexander Bortnikov to solve the high-profile murder. Amazing Efficiency. According to the Kholod magazine, in 2733 days the Russian authorities failed to find the organizers of the assassination of politician Boris Nemtsov, in 4786 days - human rights activist Natalya Estemirova, in 5798 days - journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

But the version that the Ukrainian special services were behind the murder of Dugina was from the very beginning considered by many in Moscow as the main one.. Her father is also sure that Dugin was killed “as a result of a terrorist attack carried out by the Nazi Ukrainian regime.”.

In Kyiv, they categorically deny their involvement in the murder of Dugina and call the certificate published by the FSB a fake. In turn, the Azov regiment also declares that Vovk has nothing to do with this unit, and the terrorist attack itself is preparation for a “tribunal” over the Azov people, in order to warm up Russian public opinion about the “necessity” of this trial.

As can be judged by the “leaks” from the Russian law enforcement agencies to the media, the FSB claims that the target of the “Ukrainian from Azov” was precisely Dugin, and not her father, albeit an eminent ideologist, but a marginal politician. But why does Ukraine need the death of Dugin's daughter What goal would Kyiv achieve by killing a propagandist of little influence and practically unknown in Ukraine? The calculated consequences of this hypothetical scenario cast doubt on the involvement of Ukraine in the death of Daria Dugina.

Of course, her death can be a warning to all Russian propagandists and talk show regulars who passionately call for war and the murder of Ukrainians - Soloviev, Skabeev, Prilepin, Zhuravlev, Simonyan, Kiselev, Krasovsky and others.. And judging by the comments on social networks, many Ukrainians welcome the hunt of Ukrainian special services for war criminals not only in the occupied Ukrainian territory, but also in Russia itself..

But the feeling of revenge is not the best adviser when making decisions.. And if we assume that the FSB version is correct, then Ukraine risks too much. Firstly, Ukraine may be accused of state terrorism and a blow to the reputation of our country is dealt, which may also affect the support of Kyiv from Western public opinion.. Indeed, for the West it does not matter where a civilian was killed - in Bucha, Irpen, Mariupol or Moscow. At the same time, it does not matter that the 29-year-old supporter of the Russkiy Mir was herself under Western sanctions.. The comment of the head of the US Congress Intelligence Committee Adam Schiff is indicative: “I would not want to see anything similar to the killing of civilians from the Ukrainian side”.

Moscow is already trying to raise the “Dugina case” to the international level in order to “silence” the topic of crimes committed by Russian soldiers in Ukraine. This is partly successful: the official representative of the UN Secretary-General, Stephane Dujarric, said that the UN calls for an investigation to establish the facts behind her death.. In turn, the Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, said that Russia would raise the topic of the murder of Darya Dugina at a meeting of the UN Security Council on August 23.

Secondly, the murder of Dugina may contribute to the growth of Russian support for the “special military operation”, her death is another reason for Russian propaganda to increase anti-Ukrainian sentiment.. After all, the torn, burnt body of a girl is an excellent terrible illustration confirming that “fascists” are in power in Ukraine, with whom Russian people are forced to fight in order to “liberate” the “brotherly” people of a neighboring country.

Given the above, for Kyiv, the minuses from the murder of Dugina are much more than the pluses. We can agree with Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Administration, who said that the murder of Dugina is “in many ways meaningless for Ukraine”. Yes, and in the West (judging by the publications in the media and the conversations of our informed interlocutors with confidants in the EU and the USA), they mostly doubt the “Ukrainian trace”. Including because Russians lie a lot and consistently.

At the same time, there are enough beneficiaries from the death of Dugina in Russia itself.. Therefore, the “Ukrainian version” is not the only one actively discussed in the Russian Federation itself..

One of the versions is that the Russian special services (FSB or the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation) are behind the murder of Daria Dugina, in such a cruel way trying to calm down the too ardent supporters of the special operation, which, as the “special operation” collapsed and the need for negotiations increased, they began to be perceived as a toxic element. In my opinion, the version of the “cleansing hawks” is far-fetched, since the murder of the daughter of the ideologist of the “Russian World” provokes the radicalization of the conservative camp, thirsting for revenge.

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Another version is much more likely: the murder of Dugina is part of the technology for the escalation of the war, a kind of undermining residential buildings before the second Chechen campaign. In accordance with this version, the explosion of the car was organized by that part of the Kremlin groups of influence that supports the announcement of the mobilization of the Russian population, strikes at decision-making centers and "

Those who doubt this version pay attention to the fact that if the death of Dugina is a precursor to mobilization, then the choice of the victim is not clear, since she was unknown to the broad Russian masses. This version is also supported by how quickly the “perpetrator” of the murder from Ukraine was identified..

Russian propagandists are already talking about Dugina as a " At the same time, United Russia deputy Vladimir Dzhabarov threatened Estonia with “tough actions of the Russian Federation” if it does not extradite Natalia Vovk to Russia. And the head of RT, Margarita Simonyan, expressing doubts that the Estonian authorities would extradite "

Dugin himself writes this about the death of his daughter: “The enemies of Russia meanly, surreptitiously killed her. But we, our people, cannot be broken even by such unbearable blows.. They wanted to crush our will with bloody terror against the best and most vulnerable of us.. But they won't get it. Our hearts yearn for more than just revenge or retribution. It's too small, not in Russian. We only need our Victory. My daughter laid her maiden life on her altar. So win, please."

At the suggestion of former State Duma deputy Ilya Ponomarev, a version also appeared in the media, according to which the National Republican Army, which was trying to overthrow Putin by all means, had blown up the car with Dugin.

Until recently, no one heard about this organization, and that it really exists is doubted not only in Russia, but also in Ukraine and in the West.. It is quite possible that this “army” was created in order, firstly, to further complicate the investigation of the murder, and secondly, to denigrate the opponents of the Kremlin, linking them to terrorism. Or maybe those who announced the “army” simply used the fact of the murder already committed to loudly announce: there is resistance to the Putin regime in Russia.

But the most extravagant version was proposed by Russian political scientist Sergei Markov. In his opinion, the murder of Dugin’s daughter may be behind not only the Ukrainian special services (which, they say, on the eve of Independence Day, need to “arrange some sort of victory over. They can’t make an offensive, they organize a series of terrorist attacks”), but also... Armenia. After all, Dugin is a “pro-Turkish” character, and some Turkish generals literally “pray” for him, which may not suit the Armenian radicals.

Of course, versions are also discussed that consider criminal showdowns (due to the distribution of funds for different projects) and personal revenge..

But there is an understanding among experts and politicians that the death of Daria Dugina could have serious consequences for Russia and Ukraine.. And not only in the form of a renaissance of violence in solving political or business problems in the Russian Federation - a method so familiar to Russian society in the " (While contract killings have taken place in Putin’s Russia, they have typically targeted open critics of the Kremlin rather than its active supporters..

I repeat, for Ukraine, the murder of Dugina means strengthening the positions of the Moscow " The murder of Dugina can also serve as an excuse for the Kremlin to carry out political assassinations in our country. Russian political scientists are already citing Israel as an example, “whose special services, in response to any terrorist attack against their citizens, begin a real hunt for terrorists”.

At the same time, as Russian political scientist Tatyana Stanovaya notes, in the current situation, it is important that Putin's subsequent decisions may look weak and less legitimate for the shocked conservative part of the elite and society..

She believes that “the murder works to increase dissatisfaction with the authorities in conservative circles, who believe that the Kremlin is drawing red lines in the wrong place, and is too hesitant to violate them.”.

Lack of confidence in the Kremlin is not conducive to recognition of the hasty results of the “investigation” conducted by the FSB. And since in the near future it is unlikely that we will find out the truth about what really happened in the suburbs, everyone chooses a version of the tragedy to their own biased taste.

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Read more articles by Vladimir Kravchenko at the link.