Kyiv is half a step away from signing an agreement with Moscow that will unlock the export of Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea. It is expected that the relevant document, which the delegations of Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN are working on, will be ready in the coming days.. If the document is signed tomorrow, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, together with Vice President of the Bundestag Katrin Goering-Eckardt, plans to be present at the departure of the ship with Ukrainian grain from Odessa.

The very prospect of an early resumption of exports of more than 20 million tons of Ukrainian grain led to a drop in wheat prices: US futures fell by almost 4% to a five-month low of $7.6575. per bushel (0.043 t). Its European counterpart has lost almost 5%. Now it's as cheap as it was three and a half months ago. And in Third World countries dependent on wheat imports, many governments breathed a sigh of relief: the threat of famine is receding, and with it the prospect of social upheaval..

After last week's negotiations with the participation of delegations from Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN outlined the prospect of an early agreement, Secretary General of the Organization Antonio Guterres said that " The joy of Guterres is all the more understandable, since for him personally the problem of unblocking the export of Ukrainian grain has become a personal story, the successful completion of which can strengthen his shaken position in the UN..

But what does the “bread agreement” mean for Ukraine Will the agreements be fatal for Kyiv After all, the agreement affects the defense of the southern borders of Ukraine. Will the Ukrainian Black Sea cities be safe after the clearance of ports and passages to them? Is the Kremlin ready to give security guarantees and can it be trusted How Russians will let dry cargo ships pass? Will a ceasefire be declared? And if so, to what territory and period will this regime apply

Until the Ukrainian side (as well as the Russian side) makes public the agreements. However, ZN. UA managed to find out the details of the " Some of them are of concern.

Not just for a penny The threat of famine and a new migration crisis is one of the reasons why Kyiv agreed to negotiate with Moscow during the war, when civilians are killed as a result of Russian shelling of Ukrainian cities, Ukrainian citizens are killed in the occupied territories and deported to the Russian Federation, where they are kept in prisons and filtration camps. But in our country they also see that in most countries of Africa and Asia, which are so in need of Ukrainian grain, they do not consider Russia to be guilty of unleashing the food crisis and take a neutral position towards the aggressor.

But Kyiv's reasons are not limited to humanitarian motives only.. Volodymyr Zelensky also explains the need to unblock the export of grain through the Black Sea by the fact that this will make it possible to receive " Unfortunately, today the export of agricultural products is one of the few remaining sources of replenishment of the budget of Ukraine.. In addition, Ukrainian farmers need to free up warehouses for storing a new crop of grain..

Grain traders themselves are now close to rebellion. Indeed, due to the blocking of exports, domestic grain prices have fallen: now they give 4 thousand rubles per ton of grain.. UAH at a cost of 9 thousand. And this means that the incomes of farmers who receive less money from the sale of crops are also falling..

Another reason that forced the Ukrainians to sit down at the negotiating table with the Russians is the unwillingness to spoil relations with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It is important for him to demonstrate his personal success on the Ukrainian-Russian track, so he seeks to achieve the unblocking of Ukrainian ports. Kyiv is forced to reckon with the ambitions of the "

It is more difficult to deal with the motives of Putin, who “through I don’t want to” agreed to negotiations on unblocking the export of Ukrainian grain. Well, I can’t believe in the altruism of the owner of the Kremlin: a man who, for the sake of his imperial ambitions, unleashed a war with our country, is not able to selflessly feed millions of hungry.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba sees only one reason why Putin went into negotiations: “This is his desire to show countries that adhere to neutrality or are more inclined towards the Russian position regarding the war (in Africa, Asia) that he saved them from hunger, from. In all other respects, I do not understand why he might need it.. By agreeing to unblock Ukrainian ports, he is undermining his efforts to strangle the Ukrainian economy.”.

Yes, the Kremlin is forced to take into account the wishes of the authorities of Asian and African states, who fear the coming famine due to shortages of Ukrainian grain. Otherwise, Algeria can increase gas supplies to Europe, and Egypt can start supplying Ukraine with hundreds of Soviet weapons and military equipment.. But at the same time, the Russians are trying to achieve their military-political goals..

"

Two demands put forward by Moscow at the talks are known.

First: the establishment of a truce for the period of export of grain. For Ukraine, this is extremely dangerous, since it gives the Russian command time to pull up reserves and strengthen defensive positions.. Military expert Oleg Zhdanov believes that in this case, you can forget about the liberation of territories. It is possible that under the guise of a truce, the Russians will hold a “referendum on joining Russia” on the occupied lands of the Kherson, Zaporozhye and Kharkov regions. In Ukraine, they suspect that such a “referendum” could take place on September 11, the day of the unified vote in Russia..

Second: the admission of Russians to the inspection of ships both going to Ukraine and at the stage of loading in Ukrainian ports. In Moscow, this is argued by the need to “control the smuggling of the export of weapons from Ukraine” and fears that ships will be used, including for transporting Western weapons to our country.. For Kyiv, the very fact that Russians inspect ships on Ukrainian territory is unacceptable.

As for the position of Kyiv, it is important for him that the demining of Ukrainian ports and corridors does not lead to a new Chongar. According to ZN. UA, on the eve of the negotiations at the OPU, an oral briefing was held by the members of the delegation, where the red lines were announced. Firstly, the Russians should not inspect ships either at sea or in Ukrainian ports.. Secondly, Ukraine will not provide Russia with maps of minefields in the Black Sea.. Thirdly, Kyiv will not allow the presence of Russian warships in its waters..

Unfortunately, Kyiv did not raise the issue of parallel import of fuel by sea during the negotiations on unblocking grain exports.. And, of course, the mistake of the Ukrainian authorities is that they did not initially set the conditions for the negotiations to stop Russia's rocket attacks on Odessa and Nikolaev.. How many flights have already been to these cities during the time that negotiations are underway? How many people have already died?

I was surprised by the complete lack of information about the composition of the Ukrainian delegation and its head, as well as the presence of presidential directives. Only thanks to a few photos you can find out that he headed the delegation... the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Kirill Budanov. This speaks both to the sensitivity of the topic of negotiations that require the presence of a trusted representative of the OPU, and the degree of confidence Zelensky and Yermak have in the head of military intelligence.. Some informed interlocutors ZN. UA claims that MP Rustem Umerov was a key figure in the negotiations.

Concern was caused by the absence of representatives of the West at the negotiating table. But the US and the EU supply us with weapons, including HIMARS, and money, and also exert sanctions pressure on the Russian Federation. In addition, in negotiations with the Russians, it is important to have the political support of allies.. This is hardly expected from the UN and Turkey: Guterres and Erdogan are personally interested in signing an agreement as soon as possible, which will give them the opportunity to declare their own diplomatic success. And it doesn't matter whether the interests of Ukraine are taken into account..

According to ZN. UA, initially in Kyiv advocated for the participation in the negotiations of the delegations of the United States and Great Britain. However, UN officials opposed this.. Their arguments boiled down, among other things, to the fact that the more participants, the more difficult the negotiations.. They also talked about the fact that if the Americans participate, Ukraine will lose its subjectivity, since the negotiations will be conducted by the delegations of the United States and the Russian Federation. As a result, negotiations are held in a four-way format..

But did Kyiv manage to hold its lines and not cross the \?

Are there any guarantees for the \?

Dmitry Kuleba claims that at the meeting in Istanbul, the delegations at the expert level “largely removed… issues” related to logistics and security.

Immediately after the talks, Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar said that the parties had agreed to establish a coordination center for the export of Ukrainian grain by sea.. According to ZN. UA, grain will be shipped from three ports - Odessa, Pivdenniy and Chornomorsk. Before the passage of dry cargo ships, the Ukrainian minesweeper clears the passage. Dry cargo ships will accompany Ukrainian ships.

The ceasefire was not discussed, but the parties seem to have agreed that Ukraine and Russia will not open fire on ships going through the " But no one gives guarantees that this agreement will be respected.. And in Kyiv they have no doubt that at some stage a Russian warship will follow a dry cargo ship bound for a Ukrainian port.. If this happens, the Ukrainian defense forces will open fire on him, even though this will give Moscow a reason to accuse Ukraine of disrupting the “bread agreement” and provoking a food crisis..

In general, Kyiv demands guarantees that Russia will not attack Ukrainian ports.. Putin and Erdogan were expected to discuss security guarantees in Tehran. However, when this article was being prepared, nothing was known about the results of the agreements between the Turkish and Russian presidents..

As for the inspection of dry cargo ships (and this, we recall, is one of the key requirements of Russia), there is conflicting information on this issue..

According to one of ZN's interlocutors. UA, the Russians will not check the ships either at sea or in Ukrainian ports. The inspection will be carried out in Turkish ports by representatives of the UN, Turkey, Russia and, if necessary, Ukraine. Another source of ZN. UA claims that dry cargo ships will also be inspected in Ukrainian ports. And not only Turks, but also Russians. If this information is true (and this option is also mentioned in the publication of the Financial Times), then Kyiv has transgressed the red line drawn by it.

It is not yet known whether Greek and Cypriot bulk carriers or Turkish ships will export grain from Ukrainian ports: a serious problem is the insurance of ships bound for a warring country. One of ZN's interlocutors. UA assumes that, most likely, a Ukrainian-Turkish company will be created: the Turks are ready to take risks, because they have trusting relations with both Ukraine and Russia. Despite the fact that two-thirds of the price of the goods will be “eaten up” by logistics, the Turks are satisfied, because they will be able to earn both on this logistics and on the sale of our goods: Erdogan needs this piece of the market, income and leverage that the distribution of our exports provides.

While in Tehran, Putin said that not all issues related to the export of grain from the Black Sea ports have been resolved yet..

In turn, the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, Dmitry Kuleba, assures: Ukraine will not agree to any decision that leaves even the slightest loophole for a frontal attack by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian ports from the sea.. I really want to believe this. After all, the safety of our people is at stake.. And certainly, the price for unblocking Ukrainian ports should not be the easing of sanctions against Russia..

Read more articles by Vladimir Kim at the link.

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