German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's first two-day visit to the Balkans left some questions and surprise at his sometimes fanciful proposals.. By the way, Ukraine was the topic of almost all meetings with the leaders of the countries of the region during the Balkan tour.. However, first things first.
Astonishment. Scholz started his visit from Kosovo, and then there were Serbia, Greece, North Macedonia and Bulgaria. The unexpected beginning of the route raises the question: why is Pristina in the first place?
Perhaps this is due to the absence of serious problems in the bilateral relations of the countries, the observance by the Kosovo authorities of the requirements of the EU foreign and security policy and the readiness to shift the negotiation process with Belgrade. Kosovo condemned Russia's aggression against Ukraine, joined the anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union, the country aims for membership in NATO and the EU. And therefore, Scholz said, Berlin will help Pristina in this.
It is no coincidence that it was from Pristina that a signal was sounded to Serbia and Kosovo - mutual recognition is a prerequisite for EU membership. For some reason, such a demand surprised the Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and publicly rejected it.. The Kosovo side silently approved it.
Another surprise was the absence of the Chancellor of Albania, BiH and Montenegro in the program of the visit. Each of these three countries was waiting for Scholz and not without reason: Albania hoped for clear assurances about the start of accession negotiations in the EU; in BiH, he could show support for the high representative and compatriot Christian Schmidt; In Montenegro, the new Prime Minister Dritan Abazovich would also benefit from a meeting with the Chancellor. But that did not happen.
Chancellor's Unexpected Proposals. One of them for the leaders of the Western Balkans was a new idea from Scholz - to accept all countries together into the European Union.. Wonderful! At the same time, he noted that he did not want to waste time in vain and offered an “ambitious and achievable” plan - entry... in 2033.
How did Tirana and Skopje probably think so, because Scholz promised that at the June EU summit they should approve the decision to start introductory negotiations with them. Will negotiations continue for 11 years
How is it that they probably thought less in Belgrade and more in Podgorica. After all, earlier it was about integration into the EU in 2025.. Wait another 11 years?
What they thought about in Pristina and Sarajevo, and I don’t want to imagine.
Somehow it doesn’t look like “a new signal - in the words of the Chancellor - of confidence and hope that the European Union needs the accession (of the Western Balkans)”.
And what then can Ukraine expect if this “new signal” is approved? Even if Ukraine becomes a candidate for EU membership. After all, she is constantly reminded that “the Balkans were ahead”, “they cannot be offended”, putting them in line after Ukraine....
Another fantasy thought of Mr. Scholz was the intention to talk with skeptical allies about granting Kosovo a visa-free regime for entering the Schengen zone. How is this possible if the three Schengen countries (Greece, Spain, Slovakia) did not even recognize the independence of Kosovo?
Three failures. During his visit to the Balkan countries, Scholz faced, as it seems to us, three megatasks.
The first is to create conditions for the decision to start negotiations with Albania and North Macedonia, which is blocked by Bulgaria, to be approved at the June EU summit.. In Sofia and Skopje, the chancellor stressed that he is in favor of the approval by the EU summit of the decision to start accession negotiations. But without any specifics, and, apart from the words “the chance remains”, nothing was heard after the visit. Waiting for Sofia to say.
The second task is to push for a solution to the issue of normalizing relations between Kosovo and Serbia, which was already mentioned above.. But he failed to restore bilateral negotiations.. Vucic took a tough stance: " Scholz did not propose a mechanism for achieving mutual recognition, other than some abstract assumption that the achievement of such a goal " There are agreements, but they do not work. Vucic also bluntly rejected the Chancellor's statement that recognition of Kosovo should be a prerequisite for Serbia's EU membership, and said that this was the first time he had heard of such a requirement, and therefore Belgrade would " “Just as you are committed to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, we are committed to the territorial integrity of Serbia,” he said..
Third, Scholz suggested that the Balkan countries return to the mechanisms of the Berlin Process, created by Angela Merkel back in 2014 with the aim of developing regional cooperation.. The implementation of the project is not impressive - a lot of talk at summits and money spent with little noticeable results. Scholz decided to revive this idea and accelerate the formation of a regional common market, implement agreements on the free movement of people and mutual recognition of qualifications. No one said no, and therefore the leaders of the Western Balkans were invited to Germany in August for the resuscitation summit of the Berlin Process. Perhaps this time something will succeed, except for the summits. After all, the development of cooperation is an effective factor in ensuring stability and peace in the region..
War in Ukraine and anti-Russian sanctions. Scholz's visit pursued another mega-goal, which German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock had previously formulated: the European Union must not give in to Moscow's attempts to take control of this region in the heart of Europe..
Therefore, conversations with the leadership of states in all countries, except Serbia, began with a discussion of countering hybrid Russian aggression in the region. And all countries except Serbia have welcomed Scholz's call to continue supporting Kyiv in its resistance to the Russian invasion..
It was more difficult in Serbia, which is the only one in Europe and among the countries - candidates for EU membership that actually supports Russian aggression and refuses to impose anti-Russian sanctions. Vucic anxiously awaited the meeting with Scholz and was right. “There was a sharp conversation,” he said after the visit.. To the statement of the chancellor that it is impossible to move towards membership in the European Union and not support its foreign policy, refusing to impose sanctions against Russia, the Serbian president replied: “But we have a different point of view and special relations with Russia.”. Yes, and I really want cheap Russian gas... The interlocutors did not reach a compromise, and everyone remained with his own point of view.
Summing up, we note:
the first visit of Scholz as Chancellor of Germany to the Western Balkans did not become a breakthrough for German diplomacy in the region. But the chancellor took the first step and clearly defined the problems that need to be addressed together with the US, the EU and Ukraine.. After all, most countries in the region support our struggle, so after the war we will be able to help the Western Balkans as well..
Read other articles by Vladimir Tsybulnik at the link.
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