Trying to find a replacement for Russian oil, official Washington decided to choose the " At the same time, the United States put the government of Nicolas Maduro before a choice between an ideological ally, Russia, which provides him with limited support, and political enemies of the United States, on the one hand, and the EU states, which for a long time provided Caracas with the main means of subsistence, on the other..

In mid-May, the United States announced some easing of sanctions against Venezuela. Official Washington issued licenses to European oil companies - Italian Eni and Spanish Repsol - to supply Venezuelan oil to Europe to pay off debt. Deliveries will begin in July, while companies will not have the right to sell oil to other regions.

American Chevron Corp.. - the only one that has so far continued to work in Venezuela, has not received such permission. She was granted a six-month license extension without the right to “drill, produce, refine, buy or sell, transport and ship any Venezuelan oil or petroleum products”, but agreed to negotiate with the state oil company PdVSA on future operations..

The main part of the agreements was reached in early March, when a group of members of the US administration arrived in Venezuela for the first high-level official visit in several years..

Since 2017, the United States has imposed sanctions against the Venezuelan government due to human rights violations, and since 2019, after Maduro's victory in the presidential election, they have completely severed relations with her.. The Donald Trump administration has recognized the head of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, as the legitimate president and has taken tougher measures to hasten the departure of the old government from power.. Sanctions were imposed on at least 144 Venezuelan citizens and associated individuals, visas were canceled for hundreds of officials and their families, and restrictions were placed against PdVSA, the government and the central bank.. Since April 2019, an embargo on the sale of oil to the United States has been introduced, which has deprived Venezuela of almost 90% of its profits..

While there is no talk of full normalization of relations between the United States and Venezuela, as evidenced by the non-invitation of Venezuela, along with Cuba and Nicaragua, to the Summit of the American States, held June 4-10. But changes in American policy towards this country are undeniable..

Recently, Joe Biden has shown intentions to pursue a different policy than Donald Trump in relation to the entire Latin Caribbean region.. The easing of sanctions has also been adopted regarding Cuba: in early May, a reduction in restrictions on travel to the island and money transfers was announced..

Many believe that this is an attempt to take advantage of the situation around the war in Ukraine.. In the case of Venezuela, to resume oil supplies from a country that owns the world's largest proven deposits (300.878 billion barrels) and exported up to 500,000 oil to the United States until 2019.. barrels per day. But regarding the possibility of reducing oil prices on the world market in this way, which have grown as a result of Russian aggression, persons familiar with the terms of the agreement assure that the volume of supplies will not be so large as to significantly affect them..

As for the assertion that the Biden government is trying to help Europe get rid of dependence on Russia and at the same time redirect part of China's income from Venezuela, the latter does not produce oil in the amount necessary to completely replace the Russian. Even if production rises to the 2 million barrels a day desired by President Nicolas Maduro, this is not comparable to the 11 million barrels produced daily in Russia.

The United States eased sanctions against Venezuela, subject to the start of negotiations between its government and the opposition and, accordingly, the democratization of the regime and further liberalization of the economy.

Part of the Venezuelan opposition, in particular the largest coalition of opposition parties " At the same time, supporters of Juan Guaido condemned such a move, defining it as flirting with "

Within the US itself, there is also significant opposition to the restoration of relations with the Maduro government, both from Republicans (including members of the Senate, who even introduced a bill to ban oil imports from Venezuela and Iran) and from Democrats.. But at the same time, there are many who have been speaking out for some time about the lifting of sanctions, since they do not bring the expected results in terms of undermining the position of the Venezuelan government by weakening its economy..

During the first quarter of 2022, for the first time in a long time, this country experienced economic growth due to a series of radical reforms that contributed to some liberalization and dollarization of the economy, allowing to overcome hyperinflation, as well as due to the revival of cooperation in the oil industry with Iran and China.

The reforms were carried out by a group of new junior politicians who replaced the old associates of Hugo Chavez. A team of economists led by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez deregulated prices and exchange rates, allowed the use of the US dollar in the domestic market (dollar transactions now reached 64.8% of all transactions) and reduced control in the private sector, while, in particular,. As a result of these measures, the economy posted robust growth that could reach 8% by the end of the year, according to forecasts.. The government has just reported that it has achieved 80% of the country's food needs, a significant improvement from 20% during the crisis..

Oil production has increased significantly over the past year: according to OPEC, in April it was 707 thousand. barrels per day, twice the amount produced at the end of 2021. An important role in this was played by the intensification of cooperation with Iran, from where, since the end of 2021, Venezuela has been importing diluents, which it mixes with its super-heavy oil, and in return gives part of the extracted raw materials.

Against the backdrop of these changes, the Maduro government, which has repeatedly called for the lifting of sanctions imposed against his country, reacted very positively to the current American initiative, perceiving it as a good chance to restore relations. Maduro himself noted that the visit of the members of the American administration took place in an atmosphere of mutual respect and " In support of this, Venezuela released two of the imprisoned American citizens.

This interest is due to a number of reasons.. Of course, this is an opportunity to resume supplies to the United States, which, before the imposition of sanctions, was the main market of the country and on the territory of which the Citgo Unitary Platform, the main Venezuelan processing capacity for its specific super-heavy oil, is located.. In addition, the situation is now particularly favorable: according to forecasts, due to the replacement of Russian oil, Venezuela can double its profits, receiving almost $ 20 billion..

At the same time, there is a danger of increased competition from Russia in those markets in which Venezuela has a foothold, especially China, which receives almost 70% of its oil.. Not the last role is played by the fact that after the transfer of the PdVSA office to Moscow in 2019 by the Venezuelan government, Venezuelan deposits remain in Russian banks. Gazprombank, where PdVSA's international funds are concentrated, was not excluded from the SWIFT system, so the Venezuelan government now has limited ability to manage funds. According to information from various sources, Nicolas Maduro personally appealed to Vladimir Putin with a request to unfreeze Venezuelan accounts, in particular at Promsvyazbank, but the Russian president did not give guarantees for the return of funds from the Venezuelan government and the oligarchs associated with it.. There are also no guarantees that Venezuelan clients will want to conduct transactions with Russian sanctioned banks..

There is also another problem: in recent years, Russia has become the main supplier of foreign currency in US dollars and euros for the Venezuelan economy.. This can lead to significant complications both in the domestic market of the country and in the field of external payments.. It should be noted that Maduro, during a conversation with Putin, said that Venezuela could not recently vote in the UN in support of Russia, since it did not have the funds to pay $ 40 million. according to your quota in the organization.

Therefore, Maduro, who personally expressed support to Putin in the conflict with Ukraine, in particular in a telephone conversation on May 9, publicly announced a more moderate position, close to the positions of China and Cuba, advocating a “dialogue to resolve the crisis between Russia and Ukraine”. And Delsie Rodriguez assured that Venezuela "

But it is still too early to speculate about whether it will be possible to drive a wedge between Russia and Venezuela or sway the latter to the side of the United States.. Cooperation between Caracas and Moscow remains intense. Do not forget that they have concluded at least 300 agreements, including on military cooperation and investment, worth over $12 billion.. that Russian weapons are used by the Venezuelan army, and Russian radar equipment is located on the border with Colombia.

At the same time, in general, the rhetoric of the Venezuelan government remains anti-American, and the war in Ukraine is covered exclusively using Russian sources.. Therefore, Russia is portrayed as an altruistic country that rescues Ukrainians, takes out refugees, sends humanitarian aid, while there is almost no mention of real destruction and casualties among Ukrainian civilians..

Despite this indifference and unwillingness to know the truth, now, thanks to the war in which Ukraine is being destroyed, Venezuela can get a chance for development: get out of isolation, restore economic ties with the US and the EU and overcome the economic crisis. But can the government of Nicolas Maduro continue to be an ally of Russia and at the same time develop relations with its enemies, taking its place in the markets of European countries

Read more articles by Alexandra Kovaleva at the link.

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