The Kremlin prepares for life without Putin.

No, no, we are not talking about a palace coup.. The Kremlin elite is still united and loyal to Putin, although a significant part of the establishment is unhappy with his unexpected decision to launch a large-scale invasion of Ukraine and the inability to quickly end the war.. But the fact is that the Russian president has serious health problems.. This means a toughening of the struggle for the Monomakh's hat in his environment, an intensification of the confrontation between the parties of "

What is sick Putin?

Over the past couple of months, articles have been appearing in the media more and more often about the health problems of the Russian president.. So, at the end of April, experts from the American Robert Lansing Institute wrote that there were signs indicating that Putin had cancer and Parkinson's disease, and predicted that the regime would change in the winter of 2022–2023.. In turn, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, said that the President of the Russian Federation has “several serious illnesses, one of which is cancer”.

The information about the cancer of the Russian leader could be considered another "

And last week, Newsweek published an article that at the end of May, the US intelligence community prepared a fourth comprehensive report, which also considers the issue of Putin's health.. The document notes that the Russian president has returned to public appearances after undergoing treatment for advanced cancer in April.. At the same time, Putin is becoming increasingly paranoid about his power..

If this information is true, then the uncertainty in the behavior of the Russian leader is increasing, and the risks for Ukraine are increasing: what actions can the ruler of the Kremlin take, knowing about his illness? After all, what does he have to lose However, Newsweek sources assess the prospects for nuclear war as unlikely: a weakening leader does not influence his subordinates enough to comply with his order to use nuclear weapons..

Questions remain open about Putin's future role in the political system, his successor, the configuration of post-Putin power, and changes in Kremlin policy.. And it is not clear what policy Washington and Brussels will choose towards Moscow after Putin's departure..

At the same time, the West fears a period of uncertainty in post-Putin Russia. “A post-Putin power vacuum could be very dangerous for the world,” one source told Newsweek, while noting that “a nuclear-armed Russia is a nuclear-armed Russia, whether Putin is strong or weak.”.

[see_also ids\u003d"

Guarantor of stability in unstable times.

Despite the state of health, Putin remains in power, remaining the guarantor of stability. This is explained, firstly, by the lack of a real alternative to the current ruler of the Kremlin. Secondly, the establishment's concern about increased tension in society due to the impending economic crisis, which in the future will develop into a political crisis.. In this situation, in the eyes of the elite, Putin looks like the only leader capable of consolidating the political system..

And that a systemic crisis awaits Russia in the medium term, both Western and Russian economists warn. The sanctions imposed after February 24, the mass exodus of foreign companies from Russia, and the collapse in exports have already dealt a significant blow to the Russian economy.. And although high revenues from energy exports allow the government to finance budget expenditures, the World Bank predicts that in 2022 the economic decline in the Russian Federation will reach 8.9%. One of the consequences of this will be a deterioration in the standard of living.

Therefore, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Nikolai Patrushev speaks of “strengthening the economic sovereignty of Russia”: “Effective resistance to unprecedented sanctions pressure will allow not only to cope with the economic aggression unleashed against our country, but also to carry out a deep structural restructuring of the Russian economy”. However, in the era of high technology and globalization, this path of “strengthening economic sovereignty” will only bring Russia a lag.

Despite the pressure of the " There are several reasons for this. This decision will finish off the Russian economy and hit the rating of the president in particular and the Russian government in general.. At the same time, Putin is shifting more and more responsibility onto the leaders of the regions, urging them to work as efficiently as possible, despite the “special operation” and sanctions.. It is noteworthy that, with rare exceptions, governors are inactive in expressing their position on the war..

As Tatyana Stanovaya, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center, points out, “because of the growing fragility of Putin’s leadership, the number of intra-elite conflicts will increase, and the autonomy of the elites themselves will increase... The elites will be more ready to defend their interests more resolutely without regard to a too isolated Putin.”. At the same time, the expert believes that an unspoken intra-system request is being formed for a “decorative Putin” – himself or his successor – who will act in the interests of various groups.

According to Stanovaya, Putin in his current form is becoming more of a burden for the system than a salvation.. Therefore, the system will look for ways to minimize its role in government decision-making, but in such a way as to guarantee continuity. “If tomorrow Putin suddenly disappears for some reason, the powerful preservation of Putinism as an ideology with a weak successor may turn out to be a convenient scenario for most elite groups,” the expert predicts..

However, while Putin does not just have real power, but even strengthens it. Including through control over the security forces, in particular, by appointing his adjutant Alexander Kurenkov as head of the Ministry of Emergency Situations: the Russian Guard, the FSO and the Ministry of Emergency Situations are now under the direct control of the president. Experts talk about possible purges in the establishment. However, in the medium term, the position of the Russian president will weaken due to the protracted military campaign in Ukraine and the looming economic crisis.. The external manifestation of this will be the fall in Putin's rating.

Recall that today, according to the data of the Russian Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), as of May 29, 76% of Russians trust Putin (on February 20 - only 60%). At the same time, according to VTsIOM, 72% of Russians support the “special military operation” in Ukraine, 18% do not support.

[see_also ids\u003d"

Against this background, a fierce struggle is unfolding in the Kremlin towers between the intensified " Among Putin's possible successors are both the "

Cap of Monomakh.

“People often ask me why my Telegram posts are so harsh.. Answer - I hate them. They're bastards and geeks. They want death for us, Russia. And as long as I'm alive, I will do everything to make them disappear"

Having published a hysterical and aggressive post on his Telegram channel, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who until a few years ago was perceived as a moderate Western liberal, appeared in the image of a “hawk”. As the Russian Telegram channel Yuri Dolgoruky notes, behind such harshness “is a “certain internal transformation”, demonstrating the “manifesto of the new Medvedev and the new Russian reality”.

Explaining such media activity of the ex-president, malicious commentators connect this defiant post with the fact that Medvedev’s son Ilya was deprived of a work visa in the United States and “demanded to leave this country extremely hostile to Russia within 48 hours”. It is obvious that the point is not only in the wounded feelings of his father and the offended ones - a representative of the Kremlin nomenklatura: Medvedev, demonstrating his loyalty to Putin with his anti-Western statements, is trying to occupy a niche in a new political structure.

Against the background of the cleansing of the “liberal tower of the Kremlin” and the protracted confrontation between Russia and the West, he seeks to compete with the “statists” and the security forces as a possible successor. And today in honor - boorish rhetoric, aggressive Russian chauvinism, anti-Western and anti-liberal statements. It appeals to many Russians who want the revival of Russia's "

Therefore, Medvedev's gop-rhetoric, no matter how funny or scary it may look, is focused on the domestic consumer.. This is a statement about himself as a possible successor to Putin in the 2024 elections..

But Medvedev plays on the traditional field of State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin (who, in turn, competes with First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Andrey Turchak). According to the former editor-in-chief of Ekho Moskvy Alexei Venediktov, “Volodin is the main candidate for successor from the power party. This is the party of Patrushev, Sechin, Kovalchukov. The radicalization of Medvedev is an attempt by the latter to prevent the power party and Volodin from gaining a foothold.”.

However, the problem of Medvedev is not only that in Russia he is perceived as “he is not Dimon to you”, the locum tenens of the presidential chair for Putin. Medvedev has not so many associates left. As a matter of fact, the problems of relations with big business and influential government officials also exist with another contender for the role of successor - Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko. After February 24, he managed to get closer to Putin and increase his apparatus weight, supervising the occupied Donbass.

The final decision will still be made by Putin.

Which option the current owner of the Kremlin will choose depends on the course of the war in Ukraine, the economic situation in the country and his own health.. For now, Putin's regime is stable in the short term, and Putin himself has no intention of leaving the Kremlin..

This means that we need to step up efforts at the front, maintain and strengthen the unity of the country and the anti-Putin coalition in order to be ready for different scenarios in the Kremlin.

[votes id\u003d"

Read more articles by Vladimir Kravchenko at the link.