On the evening of Monday, June 6, in London, members of the House of Commons from the Conservative Party voted on the issue of confidence in their leader and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. The prime minister avoided resignation, as out of 359 conservative parliamentarians, 211 voted in his favor. However, the victory does not look clear..

" But in Britain the picture is quite different.. Not only the opposition, but also party members speak of the prime minister as an " Against such an emotional background, the “rebellion” in the Conservative Party is perceived without surprise..

The list of claims against Johnson is long. The formal reason for the vote of no confidence was the scandal over the government rules violated by the Prime Minister to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic.. In May 2020, during a hard lockdown, he took part in a party at 10 Downing Street organized for members of the cabinet and members of his administration.. When rumors about this were leaked to the press, Johnson denied the very fact of holding the event, which journalists and many politicians regarded as a deliberate lie.. In April of this year, Johnson was fined ?50 for this violation of the quarantine regime.. At the end of May, a report was released on the results of an official investigation, in which the prime minister was blamed for "

“Public contempt of the law,” as Steve Baker, one of the initiators of the no-confidence vote, described the actions of the prime minister, is far from the only reason for dissatisfaction with Johnson on the part of party members.. Many are not satisfied with the prime minister's economic policies, in particular his plans to raise taxes in the energy sector (they are considered one of the causes of last year's fuel crisis) and the " The latter provides for the allocation of government subsidies to depressed areas, subject to partial centralization of budget management of local councils.. The dissatisfaction of local government has already been felt by many Conservative MPs, in whose constituencies polls show a steady increase in the popularity of their competitors..

The prime minister’s course towards a collision with the European Union is also considered dangerous. His recent announcement of a unilateral revision of the protocol on Northern Ireland (in particular, the rejection of the use of EU standards and norms for food and agricultural products) could provoke retaliatory measures from Brussels - and this is worsening terms of trade with the EU and significant economic losses.. In addition, the aggravation in relations with the EU will strengthen the position of nationalists in Scotland (it is no coincidence that almost all Conservative deputies from Scotland supported the vote of no confidence) and aggravate the situation in Northern Ireland.

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Many also consider his foreign policy a failure.. The prime minister is blamed for plans to cut spending on the activities of the British Council and the BBC (the most important tools of British soft power), the inability to stop the loss of influence in the Commonwealth, which is especially noticeable in relations with India and a number of African countries, the “immoral” migration policy (the decision to expel refugees from.

And most importantly, the conservatives are afraid that the prime minister is leading the party to failure in the next parliamentary elections, which should be held in 2024.. Scandals with violation of quarantine rules and a series of corruption scandals in which members of the Cabinet are involved have significantly reduced the level of support for Johnson - now about 60% of Britons speak negatively about his activities.. By-elections will be held at the end of June in two districts that the Conservatives have controlled for decades, and now polls show that the party could lose them..

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The Ukrainian question stands alone in the fleeting campaign to remove the prime minister. He was remembered mainly by Johnson himself and his supporters.. The prime minister tried with all his might to identify himself with Winston Churchill, calling himself the leader of a warring country and urging opponents to postpone a showdown until the threat to the entire free world was eliminated. Ukraine was generally a strong position of the prime minister's team, which made opponents hesitate. So Conservative MP Roger Gale, who was the first to formally demand a vote of no confidence in the prime minister, later withdrew his vote, saying that you should not “change the leader during the war”.

Even Johnson's opponents agree that he is taking the right steps during the Russian-Ukrainian war - including the supply of weapons, pressure on European allies, and even his visit to Kyiv (not forgetting, however, to add that the prime minister came to us primarily for self-promotion). Conservatives are almost unanimously in support of our country. The absence of references to Ukraine on the other side of the barricades does not mean that people who are indifferent to the suffering of our people have gathered there. It's just that the opposition didn't want to remember one of the prime minister's trump cards.

In the past two weeks, all of Johnson's hypothetical successors have declared their support for Ukraine. Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab, who would have taken over if Johnson stepped down immediately, is seen as one of the architects of the massive (perhaps the most significant of any country) anti-Russian sanctions.. Foreign Secretary Elizabeth Truss, Treasury Secretary Rishi Sunak and Defense Secretary Ben Wallace are among the most vocal supporters of military technical assistance to Ukraine, arms supplies and financial assistance to our country.. The leader of the " Perhaps the only issue on which he disagrees with Johnson is how the cabinet deals with the problem of Ukrainian refugees in the country.. According to Hunt, efforts in this direction are insufficient and Britain "

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This means that the “rebellion on the ship” of the Conservative Party does not concern us in any way, and everything in our friendship with an important ally will remain the same? Unfortunately it's not that simple. The political storm that has risen will not subside in a moment after Johnson's victory - especially given that this victory is not very convincing.. More than 41% of the members of his faction voted against. When, in 2018, the Conservatives tried to announce a vote of no confidence against the backdrop of failed Brexit negotiations (then Johnson headed the opposition to the head of government), she managed to enlist the support of 63% of the deputies from the Conservative Party. Mei soon had to leave to overcome the split in the party..

If you look at the current overall picture in the party ranks, the situation will look even more threatening - polls show that more than half of its members want a change of leader. And although the failed vote of no confidence formally guarantees Johnson a year of immunity from new attempts to remove him from power, in fact his position remains very precarious.. Johnson's opponents will not stop encroachments to remove him from power, all the more there are reasons for this: the police investigation is still ongoing, it is already known about six parties in violation of quarantine norms, in which the prime minister participated. Some part of the " And although the conservative majority of 33 deputies seems indestructible, a mass exodus from the conservative camp cannot be ruled out either.. Those remaining in the faction will demand big concessions from the prime minister, whose positions look vulnerable. After all, early elections to confirm his own mandate today are unprofitable for Johnson - the party will definitely not repeat the success of 2019, and defeat looks quite likely.

Best-case scenario for Ukraine - Johnson will compromise with opponents and abandon the most unpopular political plans. But all previous experience confirms that Johnson is not a supporter of compromises.. And rather, he will choose an aggravation of the intra-party struggle, in which the prime minister will primarily take care of maintaining power. All this will draw conservatives away from Ukraine, absorbing the time and political resources we need elsewhere - in Europe, where Britain today prevents continental powers from pushing too hard for peace at any cost.;

in the United States, where the example of London is pushing the American administration to provide us with the widest range of conventional weapons. Today London is one of our main allies. If Ukraine leaves the first place on his political agenda, it will be more difficult for us. We can only hope for the responsibility of British politicians, who must understand that this is not only our war, but also theirs..

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Read more articles by Viktor Konstantinov at the link.