China does not give a clear answer to the question of whether it is ready to provide legally binding security guarantees to Ukraine within the framework of an international treaty with which Kyiv seeks to conclude negotiations with Moscow..

The Chinese understand that the chances of success of these negotiations are very slim.. But they accepted with interest the idea of \u200b\u200ba neutral and nuclear-free status for Ukraine in exchange for security guarantees.. Neutrality of Ukraine, which Moscow seeks, is now supported in Beijing. Ukraine should become a bridge between Russia and the West, say in China.

It should be noted, however, that from the beginning of the year, Beijing began to officially promote the Russian narrative about the aggressive nature of NATO (they even say that this organization should be disbanded as a product of the Cold War) and that Russian security was threatened by the waves of expansion of the Alliance. At the same time, China calls for adherence to the principles of the UN Charter, respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine, and to take seriously the legitimate security interests of all countries.. Beijing, after some hesitation, clearly called Putin's " And he even condemned it - the war as a means of resolving contradictions, but not Russia as the country that unleashed it. Let's say more, in China it is widely believed that the United States and NATO are " The role of Ukraine itself was not taken into account in it.. True, fifty days of Ukraine's stubborn resistance to Russian aggression somewhat shook this dismissive opinion of the pro-Russian-minded Chinese about the real strength and resilience of the Ukrainian people..

The idea of \u200b\u200blegally binding security guarantees for Ukraine from the members of the UN Security Council turned out to be unexpected and baffled the Chinese side. So, to a direct question whether China is ready to become a guarantor of Ukraine’s security, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin answered evasively: “China is making efforts to establish peace and will continue to play a constructive role in its own way to help de-escalate tensions in Ukraine.. We will soon work with other parties towards resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and restoring peace in Europe.”.

The key word here is “in its own way”, which means that China will not unconditionally accept the ideas voiced by the Ukrainian side after negotiations with the Russian delegation in Istanbul on March 29, and will try to develop its own approaches. What kind? Nobody knows.

The head of the Ukrainian negotiating group, David Arakhamia, was forced to admit that negotiations with the Chinese side as a potential guarantor country were “least prepared”. Nothing else to be expected. There has been no ambassador of Ukraine in China for more than a year. And the high-level dialogue between Kyiv and Beijing has been absent for many years. Only now the office of the President of Ukraine and the domestic Ministry of Foreign Affairs are trying to initiate contacts with China. Thus, on April 4, at the initiative of the Ukrainian side, a telephone conversation took place between the Foreign Ministers of the two countries, Dmitry Kuleba and Wang Yi. It is believed that such a conversation precedes a personal dialogue between President Zelensky and President Xi. However, we note that in the list of topics discussed by the ministers, according to the Chinese side, the topic of China's security guarantees for Ukraine did not appear..

China's strategy in the foreign arena - not only in relation to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but in general - can be summed up in three phrases - do not take sides, remain neutral, keep watching. In a conversation with Dmitry Kuleba, Wang Yi described Beijing's position as follows: "

These statements mean that China is not ready to act. It is obvious that the proposals of the Ukrainian side on security guarantees, which would be even tougher than Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, contradict the key provisions of the Chinese foreign policy doctrine.. These ideas mean that China is leaving a kind of diplomatic comfort zone, from where it intends to continue making beautiful and correct (from its point of view) statements, but at the same time insisting that the conflict in Ukraine does not directly concern it - it was not he who started it, not him.

China may not respond to the ideas of the Ukrainian side, at least until the United States, Russia and several other key countries announce their format of guarantees for Ukraine.

But Beijing will not be drawn into this game.. He is flattered by the words of Andriy Yermak that Ukraine believes " However, China has long determined for itself what kind of security system it would like to build.. For him, its central link should be the interests of China itself and most countries, and not the security of Ukraine alone..

China has been developing its own idea of \u200b\u200ba multipolar world for almost a decade, the meaning of which is to oppose the hegemony of the United States and the " He will not allow all these developments of his leaders to collapse overnight because of the war in Ukraine just because much more relevant ideas are being offered in Kyiv today..

And this is not only about a new type of legally binding members of the UN Security Council security guarantees for one separate country - Ukraine. Even more ambitious is the idea of \u200b\u200bVolodymyr Zelensky about the “Union of Responsible Powers” \u200b\u200b- U-24, which could quickly respond to world crises, including not only wars, but also, for example, global epidemics.. An idea that Beijing should have been among the first to support - as a global and responsible power.

But… Chinese concerns are different today. Beijing watches how the West united again due to Russian aggression against Ukraine. Chinese attempts to drive a wedge between the US and Europe have failed. Beijing itself has come under intense pressure from an overly close relationship with Russia that calls into question China's reputation as a country capable of setting the global agenda..

Ukraine, with its proposals, in principle, gives China a chance to correct this imbalance in its policy.. At the same time, a basis is being created on which China could really work with Russia, the United States, and other guarantor countries to form a new security architecture.. However, Beijing is not ready, it firmly clings to the principle of solving everything “in its own way”.

This means that the ideas of the Ukrainian side in their original form will not be accepted by China.. Beijing will not sign guarantees that, due to a possible conflict between some two states, will force it to “automatically” choose one side, and even more so actually help one country against another.

We can only cautiously assume that Beijing will agree to the idea of \u200b\u200bholding urgent consultations in the event of any country's aggression against Ukraine.. (Such a mechanism, by the way, is spelled out in the " ) But it is unlikely that the Chinese are ready to accept the condition of a new possible agreement that 72 hours after the aggression there will be an automatic activation of guarantees.

Probably, the idea of \u200b\u200bsending a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine can be discussed with China if such a mission is approved by the UN Security Council. (China is one of the largest participants in peacekeeping missions. ) However, China will definitely not send its weapons to Ukraine to repel aggression or participate in events to “close the sky”.

The only thing that Chinese Ambassador to our country Fan Xianrong was already ready to promise Ukraine was that “China will never attack Ukraine”.

Read more articles by Alexey Koval at the link.