The Atlantic: Neutral Ukraine is a very dangerous idea

06 April 2022, 16:11 | Policy
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Against the background of continued fierce fighting, as well as secret and not-so-secret peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow, the idea of \u200b\u200b\\u200b\\u200b" Like, the Ukrainians have ceased to be neutral, leaning towards the West and refusing to deal with the Moscow rulers.. And that is why the Russian president allegedly declared war.

President Volodymyr Zelensky, under certain conditions, agreed to the Kremlin's demands. Therefore, the so-called "

But, as The Atlantic writes, removing all restrictions from Moscow under such circumstances would be a grave mistake.. Unlike Soviet rules for Finland during the Cold War, Putin's terms for a cessation of hostilities will not end the war against Ukraine as soon as it becomes neutral.. After World War II, Moscow allowed Finland to maintain its democracy and market economy in exchange for not joining NATO or Western economic and political bodies.. It is no coincidence that Finland became a member of the EU only after the collapse of the USSR.. But relations between Helsinki and the Kremlin during the Cold War were very different from those between Ukraine and Putin's Russia today..

For Moscow, Ukraine is much more important than Finland was for the USSR. It plays a central role both in Russian identity and in the political imperatives of the survival of the Putin regime.. Helsinki is not Kyiv. Putin keeps repeating that Ukrainians and Russians are supposedly “one people”. The attitude of the USSR towards the Finns was not at all like that. More importantly, a democratic, politically stable and economically dynamic, Western-oriented Ukraine is a deadly threat to Putin's militaristic dictatorship in stagnation.. Russians sooner or later ask: why are our neighbors in the southeast free and getting richer, while we endure a repressive government every day and lose income?

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“Putin does not need a neutral Ukraine. He needs a failed Ukraine. He wants to create. There is no mythical threat to NATO. That's what this invasion is about,"

In addition to the promise not to enter into a defense alliance with the West, Russia will demand " Putin will also demand recognition of Russian sovereignty over Crimea, as well as the “independence” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which will in fact be Russian enclaves inside Ukraine.. Prior to this, Zelenskiy had rejected these attacks on his country’s sovereignty, offering 15 years of talks over Crimea and insisting on discussing the status of Donetsk and Lugansk directly with Putin.. But how long can the Ukrainian president resist while Russian invaders kill Ukrainian citizens and destroy cities? How long will it take before the West begins to put pressure on him: gently or otherwise - pushing for a \?

More than anything, the democratic West wants peace, and Putin needs victory. He is well aware of these differences between Moscow's goals and Ukraine's Western allies.. And it works in his favor. Time is on his side. Moreover, as in the case of the Minsk agreements imposed on Ukraine after the Russian military advance in the Donbas in 2015, Moscow will insist that Ukraine fulfill part of the obligations before Russia fulfills its. But in view of the fact that Moscow has rejected any international mediation, who will confirm that Russian troops have completely withdrawn from Ukrainian territory? Experience shows that Putin will definitely leave numerous forces in Donetsk and Lugansk, calling them peacekeepers, as happened in Transnistria, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

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Moreover, who will guarantee that Russia will fulfill all the requirements? Or who will make her do it, if necessary? Zelensky has compiled his list of potential guarantors, including the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey. However, given all the Russian atrocities and Putin's nuclear hints, all these countries reacted coolly to Zelensky's invitation to go to war against Russia if the peace agreement is again violated by the Kremlin.. Without international security guarantees for Ukraine, there is no doubt that Russia will regard the peace agreement as the right to aggressively interfere in Ukrainian politics..

The current invasion is likely just the first step in Putin's long-term plan to systematically demoralize and plunder Ukraine.. The ultimate goal is to bring it under Russian control. Of course, ending the Russian carnage may seem worthy of forcing Kyiv to make all the concessions Moscow demands.. But the West definitely needs to stop hoping for " It will not bring a lasting peace that preserves Ukraine's independence, but only a temporary ceasefire in Putin's long-term war aimed at destroying Ukraine's sovereignty.. Recognition of this reality is very important in order to break the plans of the Kremlin.

Recall that following the results of the negotiations on March 29, the head of the legal group at the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, Alexander Chaly, said that security guarantees should be analogous to Article 5 of NATO. This means that an attack on our state will be considered an attack on all signatories.. Chaly noted that if they are agreed, our side agrees to permanent neutrality, non-alignment and non-nuclear. But nothing should contradict Ukraine's right to join the EU.

The head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, told whom Ukraine wants to see as signatories of security guarantees.

He also said that the document will not apply to the temporarily occupied territories of Donbass and Crimea, since issues regarding them have not yet been resolved..

Earlier, the United States declared its readiness to act as one of the guarantors of Ukraine's security.. Then the same was announced in Germany and Italy. At the same time, Deputy British Prime Minister Dominic Raab said that London would consider Ukraine's request, but he ruled out taking guarantees that NATO countries have..




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