Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine continues for six weeks. But events are already moving in a familiar pattern. Usually in wars, both sides go into battle with their own theory of victory.. But when both theories fail, then the true nature of the conflict becomes apparent..

During the Second Punic War (218-201 BC), Hannibal believed that he could send an army into Italy and win some high-profile victories, after which other city-states under Roman rule would rise up, allowing him to break the Roman regime forever.. The Romans, on the other hand, believed that, having more combat-ready legions with a higher level of morality and discipline, they would quickly show Hannibal who was in charge.. Both sides eventually realized their initial strategies were not working, writes Yale University international affairs professor Walter Russell Meade in the Wall Street Journal..

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The Romans were shocked by a series of catastrophic military defeats, facing the biggest challenge in Roman history.. Hannibal achieved his original goals. He was able to take his army across the Alps and win a number of important victories that young officers around the world are still studying to this day.. But his strategy failed. Even after the Battle of Cannes, only a number of Italian city-states went over to his side.. Roman authorities survived. And the war dragged on.

World War I began in a similar way. Both the French and the Germans planned that their quick attacks would be decisive.. France was preparing an attack through its eastern borders, and Germany was preparing to capture Paris through Belgium. Both plans failed, and the countries were mired in a conflict in which neither side knew how to win..

Something similar is happening with Putin's war against Ukraine. The original Russian plan called for the destruction of the Ukrainian state due to the rapid occupation of the capital and major cities such as Kharkiv.. But the plan failed. Ukraine hoped that a strong rebuff and economic sanctions would force Putin to either agree to peace on terms acceptable to Kyiv, or lead to his overthrow. But, at least for now, none of that has happened.. Now both sides are fighting a war that neither of them knows how to win.. And it's hard to imagine a peaceful compromise acceptable to Kyiv and Moscow.. Ukraine cannot accept a peace that would involve new territorial sacrifices and leave it vulnerable to new Russian aggression. Putin cannot end the war without demonstrative achievements at the cost of Ukraine. Military logic seems to be pushing both sides towards further and possibly more violent military, economic and political conflict.. As everyone is looking for a way to win. Russia is ramping up its military efforts in the east, increasing the level of violence on the battlefield, terrorizing Ukrainian civilians into coming to terms with Russian domination.. Ukraine doubles down on calls for Western countries to provide more military assistance, as well as more powerful sanctions.

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As Kyiv and Moscow search for ways to win, the Biden administration has three absolutely unpleasant options between which it will have to choose..

The first one is to help Ukraine win. This is the most emotionally compelling, most morally justified, and most politically useful option.. However, risks and costs are high.. Russia will not accept defeat without having tested every tactic, no matter how brutal, and every weapon available.. To force Russia to admit defeat in Ukraine, the Biden administration will have to shift to wartime thinking. We may have to go to the nuclear line, which has not been since the Caribbean crisis of 1962. With Iran and China seeking to weaken American power by all means available, a confrontation with Russia-led revisionists could be America's toughest challenge since the height of the Cold War..

But the other two options are even worse. Russian victory will undermine American prestige and NATO viability. Especially if the West tries to force Ukraine to surrender and agree to Russian demands.. Freezing the conflict is also dangerous. Since Russia may leave even more of the Ukrainian territory in occupation. It will be difficult to call it anything other than a partial victory for Russia. And Putin will be able to resume hostilities again whenever he pleases..

The failure of containment of Putin in Ukraine is not only the failure of the Biden administration. The blame also lies with Donald Trump, Barack Obama and George W. Bush.

This failure may be even more costly than the failure to stop the September 11, 2001 attacks.. Biden's place in history depends on the ability to deal with the aftermath of this increasingly brutal and unpredictable war..

The Center for Counteracting Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council warned that Russia is preparing for a protracted war in Ukraine. In particular, Russian propaganda is actively spreading the thesis that the first stage of the special operation has shown results.. And the so-called "