WP: Containment of Russian war against Ukraine failed, why?

29 March 2022, 20:48 | Policy
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Russian invasion of Ukraine did not benefit anyone. Ideas about the strength of Russia have changed a lot, not for the better for Moscow. Ukraine suffered big losses. The Russian economy will be hit hard, and the global economy not so much. Considering that the end of the war is not yet in sight, it can be said that no one wanted all these consequences..

Oddly enough, the Pentagon remains the only one who believes that the situation is developing well, writes the Washington Post.. US Department of Defense top leadership 'full of confidence in new American power'. They are satisfied with the extraordinary performance of the U.S.-backed Ukrainian Armed Forces, the heavy Russian casualties on the battlefield, and the lessons China has learned from this war..

This masks the fact that the " And this is obvious, because the Russian army has invaded all the warnings of the United States. The only question is whether this failure could have been prevented.. In particular, could the Biden administration have prevented this? Various sources have given very different answers to this question..

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Pentagon officials said there was little they could do to contain Vladimir Putin, who was counting on a quick and easy victory in Ukraine.. The broader " Because she did not allow Putin to expand the war into NATO territory. The Biden administration has made this strategy the basis of the new National Defense Strategy, which will be published soon.. Although the release of the document was delayed due to the growing threat of a Russian invasion.

Others pointed to the war in Ukraine as evidence of the failure of the concept of " Republican Mike Gallagher said in an interview that he completely disagrees with anyone who believes that the events on Ukrainian soil were the success of this containment..

“I don’t understand at all how they can say this to their faces.. The whole containment strategy was based on the idea that threats of limited sanctions could stop Putin,” Gallagher said..

It is possible that both the Pentagon and the congressman are right to some extent.. Gallagher is right when he says that the sanctions did not deter Putin. Thus, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov admitted that Moscow was surprised by the expansion of restrictions on the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.. This suggests that the Russian side underestimated how much aggression would cost them.. That is the problem. For containment to work, Russia needed to accurately understand the losses and risks of its actions.. At the same time, the exact nature of the sanctions could not be disclosed in advance.. Otherwise, Russia might try to prepare to limit their influence..

Could President Biden have done anything else? If you listen to experts on the issue of Russia, you can hear some interesting ideas.. Yale University historian Timothy Snyder said that the Russians were “very focused on the events of January 6 [that was when the capitol was stormed,” ed.. )"

“They believed that a successful military operation in Ukraine would give impetus. We would feel helpless, slide into internal conflict. And it would help Donald Trump in the USA,” the historian believes..

Other experts on the Russian question said something similar too. However, they also pointed to the humiliating withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan as an important factor. Putin allegedly felt that NATO was fragmented. To do this, the Russian offensive against Ukraine had to completely break the alliance.. This interpretation of events may contain a grain of truth.. The core of the problem is not because the Biden administration has failed to contain Russia.. They couldn't contain Putin.

“I saw how Putin was at first a little shy, then confident, then arrogant, and now he has megalomania,” said former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

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To moderate Russia, it would be necessary to break Putin's views on the world. And it is not clear how this could be done at all. A lot of evidence shows Putin's confidence that the war against Ukraine will go exactly like Russian invasions of Syria, Georgia or Crimea..

That it will end in a quick, painless victory.

“I doubt Putin would have dared to invade Ukraine if he thought it would escalate into a war of attrition,” foreign relations expert Rob Lee tweeted..

Victorious moods in the Pentagon may be exaggerated. But the agency's estimates appear to be correct.. You can't keep Putin from invading Ukraine. But US actions over the past month have worked as an effective deterrent against other major states with territorial claims..




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