A month ago, the Russian army launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.. During this time, despite the rapid advance of the first days, the movement of the occupiers slowed down, writes CNN. Western experts tried to predict how the Russian-Ukrainian war will continue.

Russian intensification of bombing.

The more strikes on the ground inflicted on the Russian invaders, the more likely it is that aerial bombardments will increase, experts interviewed by CNN are sure..

At the same time, Jeffrey Menkoff of the US Institute for National Strategic Studies says: “Russia still has the capabilities and reserves (for combat operations - Ed.. ), and will grow (their - Ed. ) intensity as she makes an effort to bring in more troops"

However, there may come a point when losses outstrip replenishment of reserves and it becomes difficult for Russia to maintain the pace of the operation, no matter what..

Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the East.

The best troops of the Russian army are now sent to the zone of the Joint Forces Operation in Luhansk and Donbass, in the direction of Mariupol, Melitopol and Berdyansk. "

Although Russia's efforts were primarily focused on Kyiv, now the Russian Federation may try to cordon off the Ukrainian military in the east, just in the JFO zone.

The expert also added that the Western media, focusing on the losses of Russia and the disobedience of Ukraine, give a false sense of the dynamics of the war: " They captured a lot of cities, so now many more Ukrainian citizens live under Russian rule than three weeks ago."

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Negotiation talks.

War in Ukraine could become a protracted conflict. And although Russia has been involved in long-term conflicts before, now, given the heavy losses, it may begin to take the negotiations seriously..

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At the same time, US officials are less optimistic.. So US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that a diplomatic solution to the war is unlikely because Russia's actions "

He also suggested that Russia might escalate and use chemical weapons..

Mass deportations of Ukrainians to Russia.

It is already known about the forced eviction of a thousand residents of Mariupol to the Russian Federation. This is reminiscent of the deportation of the Soviet Union, in particular in the Baltic countries, says Keir Giles. Then, after the occupation of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania at the beginning of the Second World War, Stalin deported thousands of civilians to the territory of the then Russian Federation.

Millions more Ukrainians will run away, leaving the country.

The war triggered the biggest refugee movement in Europe since World War II. More than 3.5 million Ukrainians have already left the country. These numbers are increasing by about 100,000 people per day.. If we take into account the number of internally displaced persons, then 10 million Ukrainians have left their homes. That's about a quarter of the country's population..

Past wars show that refugees quite often do not return to their homeland. Sometimes the threat of another war is enough to force refugees to stay abroad..

And this is what negotiators should think about first..

After all, even if a diplomatic solution can be found to end this war, the question remains whether this is enough to prevent the next one, concludes analyst Kenny-Evans.

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Earlier, we reported that the Ukrainian military pushed back the battles with the Russian invaders within the limits of the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. Also, to the north of Kyiv, fighting continues, the infidels were taken into a semicircle. There was an active struggle in Irpin and Gostomel.