The Economist: Putin set Russia back a century

14 March 2022, 00:09 | Policy
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The Pantsir-S1 missile system impresses with its appearance. 17-ton machine capable of shooting down aircraft at a distance of 17 km. One of them was photographed near Kherson. Though she looked miserable. The rocket tubes of the installation stuck out like porcupine quills, but at the same time the car was axle-deep in mud.. It was one of thousands of Russian military vehicles that were destroyed, knocked out, abandoned or captured in Ukraine in two weeks..

According to The Economist, after seeing a photo of the " The tires on the wheels of the combat vehicle were terribly cracked. Moreover, it was a cheap Chinese forgery of those tires that would be right to install on such equipment, - said John Hawkes from the intelligence and defense firm Janes. Such tires are not able to withstand the "

However, such interesting signs of negligence were not visible everywhere.. These photos were not in the Russian media, as well as the word " Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses it, he also did not declare a state of emergency in the country. During a very strange event that was shown on television on March 5, he told Aeroflot flight attendants that a special operation to demilitarize the " That Russian troops allegedly use high-precision weapons and hit only military targets. And the damaged civilian houses are supposedly the work of a movement of evil " To prevent this “important message” from Putin from being “distorted”, a law was passed on March 4 punishing any dissemination of information about the war that contradicts the official version.. You will have to spend 15 years in prison for this..

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As George Orwell knew for sure, when war is peace, ignorance is strength.. Almost all independent media in Russia were closed. And access to social networks is blocked by the government. At the same time, true news gets through Telegram. In addition, access to foreign sites is obtained using a VPN.. The easiest way to find out the truth is to call relatives in Ukraine. However, when relatives say that Putin's bombs are falling on Kyiv, many Russians cover their ears and believe the TV.. But there are many who do not.

The biggest problems with maintaining “normalcy” stories are the amount of wastage.. On March 2, Russia recognized the death of 498 soldiers. March 8, US military intelligence announced that the real figure is 2-4 thousand. The USSR did not cross the mark of 2 thousand dead in almost a year of war in Afghanistan after the invasion in 1979. In the case of the United States, the same number of deaths were in three years of fighting in Iraq.

The economic situation is also hard to pass off as normal.. Most global brands left Russia, leaving behind closed stores and thousands of unemployed Russians (before the invasion, 5% of Russians were employees of foreign firms). The government intends to nationalize foreign assets to keep some businesses active. But the stock market crashed. Supermarkets began to limit the sale of food. And Google's geolocation data says Russians have been shopping more frequently since the invasion began, hinting at concerns about future supplies and prices.. The Real Price Index, which State Street Global Markets and PriceStats track in real time, is rising rapidly. Russian economists expect annual inflation to be 30-40%.

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Sanctions made it impossible for the Central Bank to protect the ruble, which has already lost 40% of its value since January. And international travel became simply impossible.. Some factories have stopped due to a break in supply chains. Boeing and Airbus boycott Russian carriers and deny them service and sale of spare parts. Therefore, there will be more flight attendants to chat with the Russian president very soon, since Russian airlines will not fly anywhere..

In the sad chronicles of the damage caused to Russia by its own rulers, the current events will be especially vivid.. Russia's 10% drop in GDP caused by recession due to the global financial crisis and the 1998 default appear to be repeating. But the structural breach will be bigger this time. The last time Russia experienced such rapid and devastating changes was immediately after the collapse of the USSR, when most of the country's citizens were either children or not yet born.. And the companies that are now leaving the country have not yet entered the market.

“From a political and social point of view, you will have to go back almost a century to find a parallel - to 1929, when Stalin liquidated the entrepreneurial class in order to consolidate his power.. Putin's war was not intentionally aimed at destroying the modern, urban, well-educated middle class.. But the people and firms affected by it are most integrated into the global economy.. Therefore, these are those with whom, in general, he sympathizes less, ”the article says..

The damage done goes far beyond finances. No more "

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“There is also an illusion in the past that Russia is a country where one could enjoy dignity as well as a way of life with all these amenities,” the article says..

It's been 10 years since Russia's middle class took to the streets for the first anti-Putin protests. His further transition from ruling based on economic success to one based on national greatness smoothed out some of those cracks.. The occupation of Crimea in 2014 was popular. But after that contradiction between the growing imperialist kleptocracy on the one hand and the bourgeois way of life with civil society became even more acute.. Imprisoned opposition leader Alexei Navalny led a wave of discontent among the urban middle class when Putin tried to poison him in 2020. Having failed to deprive Russia of Navalny, the autocrat is now getting rid of his supporters.

The Economist writes that Putin's situation is very bad. A victory in the war with Ukraine, which would have allowed the overthrow of the Ukrainian government, could at least justify the cost of the war.. But it still won't help the Russian economy. Without such a victory, he may escalate violence, such as using weapons of mass destruction and blaming his enemies to justify more carnage.. At some point, commanders on the ground, out of fear of the International Criminal Court, may revolt. However, in the history of Russia there are not many such military mutinies..

Alternative scenario: Putin can withdraw troops and pretend to win. He has already set the stage for such a maneuver by separating his mythical Nazi antagonists from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which he describes as a victim of Western governments.. This maneuver seems unlikely. But the war was also considered such. In the end, like all other scenarios, except for a coup, such an ending would be bad for Russia without ensuring stability outside of it.. Putin will still be a danger to both the outside world and the Russians, against whom he will unleash even more deadly repression.

Novaya Gazeta, the only prominent independent publication left in Russia, cannot write about the war in Ukraine. However, she keeps an eye on the atrocities taking place in parallel with her..

“Military censorship does not cover the fact that the war continues inside Russia,” the newspaper said in an editorial..



A transcript of a mockery of a Russian woman who was beaten and raped in a prison cell was recently published on its pages..

What do you think we will get for this? Putin said to kill such. That's what! Putin is on our side. And you are the enemies of Russia, the enemies of the people. We will also be paid a bonus for this, ”the policemen told her..

No matter how the war in Ukraine ends, similar things in Russia itself will not stop..




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