The top of the Republican Party of the USA dreams to remove President Donald Trump from power. He may not be allowed to head the ruling party at the mid-term elections to Congress in 2018. , And also to forbid him to run for the presidential election of 2020. The maximum program for the republican elite is impeachment, but such a scenario is practically impossible to realize, moreover, it is not profitable for the Republicans themselves.
The desire to quickly get rid of Trump said the Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, with whom the White House chief has a protracted conflict. Politicians regularly criticize each other, and recently do not talk at all, reports "Free Press". McConnell is supported by many influential Republicans, including Paul Raine, Speaker of the House of Representatives. The American media note that a quarrel with the republican elite makes it very difficult for Trump to be re-elected to his post in 2020.
The political coalition of opponents Trump wants, as a minimum, to prevent the implementation of his program. This will force some American voters to turn their backs on the president, and this will allow Republicans to quietly put up for elections in 2020. Another candidate instead of the unpopular head of state.
The maximum program implies the impeachment of Impeachment Tramp. A convenient time for this may occur in 2018.. , After the re-election of a third of the Senate. The liberated seats will most likely come from democrats who willingly launch the impeachment procedure. They can support a large part of the Republicans.
Director of the Institute for Political Studies Sergei Markov states that the political crisis is aggravating in the United States: Trump does not want to obey the system, but can not beat him. The top Republicans dream of impeachment, but at the same time they are afraid of such a scenario.
"There are few Democrats for impeachment. It is also necessary that a large part of the Republicans vote for the resignation of the US president. And this is fraught not just with the split of the party, it means that the Republican Party refuses its president, whom she herself put forward, and for whom the party majority voted - both in the primaries and in the presidential elections, "argues the political scientist..
According to him, "if the Republican Party does this, it will sign in its incapacity and de facto recognizes that it has entered a state of deep crisis". And this will inevitably lead to the defeat of Republicans in the election of 2020. Thus, impeachment is not advantageous for them.
In the current situation, Trump's opponents will try to put him in a negative light and convince his constituents that he is not a real Republican. He just needs to endure. And precisely because he is not a real Republican, he is not worthy to lead the party in the Congressional elections and to be a presidential candidate from the Republicans in 2020.
The president can only stake on the support of ordinary Republican voters. "At the grass-roots level, decisions are made not by Trump, nor by the bosses of the Republican Party, but by the candidates themselves (to Congress) who have sufficient independence in the United States. It is the candidates who will watch whether Trump is popular in their constituency or not, and if popular, contact the president for support. Yes, Trump's support rating in the country is now quite low, but in a number of states, the president's support remains, among ordinary voters, "Markov said..
Therefore, after the elections of 2018. Trump's position is not necessarily weakened, he adds.. On the contrary, the president will be able to get in Congress loyal to him Republicans, far from the party elite. With their help, he will put the leadership of the Republican Party in place.
Leading expert of the Center for Military and Political Studies of MGIMO Mikhail Aleksandrov recalls that impeachment requires a crime. The evidence against Trump on charges of illegal cooperation with Russia is too weak, so the campaign to dismiss the president, initiated by his opponents, has gradually faded away. So "from this point of view, the head of the American state is now virtually impossible to remove from power," the expert believes..
He agrees that Trump needs to "launch a campaign to nominate new candidates from the Republican Party to the Senate and the House of Representatives on the ground to overthrow the current party bosses". However, the president does not have the experience of party struggle. "Perhaps Trump and would like to get rid of the current party leaders, and introduce their own people.
But to do this, we need systematic work on the ground, plus control over the party apparatus in various regions. It is possible that such a task is not up to Trump, "- said Alexandrov.
Besides, Trump has very little time before the 2018 elections. "And if he starts a campaign to reshuffle the Republican Party, it's guaranteed to lead to a serious defeat of Republicans in the Congressional elections. In this case, the failure will be written off on Trump himself, which will weaken his position even more, "concluded the political scientist..