Today, the European Union was supposed to officially extend anti-Russian sanctions, which he, in fact, already did. The decision about this in the EU took place last week during the Brussels summit, so no pleasant surprises are to be expected. Hopes for the cancellation or at least easing of restrictive measures that arose after the presidential elections in the United States with the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House have almost melted away.
The odious businessman-politician did not fit into the American establishment, and he himself is balancing on the brink of impeachment. Any embarrassing move could cost him a presidential seat.
The majority of economists, politicians and even officials who are supposed to be optimists simply on duty, in their assessments and forecasts proceed from the assumption that under the sanctions of Russia it will be necessary to live for a very long time. Moreover, the issue is no longer the abolition of restrictions, but whether they will be further tightened and to what extent. And, first of all, this threat comes from the USA.
Recently, the White House expanded the list of Russian individuals and companies under sanctions. According to some analysts, in this way Trump tried to cajole the Senate, which the day before it passed a law on strengthening sanctions pressure on Russia. That is, increasing the point sanctions, the US president seeks to avoid the more serious restrictions laid down in the bill. How successful will this maneuver be?.
While the document is stuck in the House of Representatives. But opposing Trump political forces do not show signs of appeasement and insistently demand further promotion of the law. The fact that sooner or later it will be adopted, there is no doubt, said political scientist Konstantin Blokhin.
The refusal of the owner of the White House to sign the document will give his opponents another good reason to accuse Trump of being a protege of the Kremlin, and some shady grounds for impeachment, the expert. But even if such extremes do not come about, the senate can still overcome the presidential veto by a majority vote. On Monday, June 26, Senator from the State of New York, representative of the Democratic Party Chuck Schumer has already stated this intention.
While the White House is dragging out time. On Tuesday, June 27, US presidential spokesman Sean Spicer said that the Senate's decision on anti-Russian sanctions was taken with procedural violations, and therefore there is simply no de facto right now for such a bill. However, while not explaining what the violations are. Asked whether Trump supports in principle new restrictive measures against Russia, Spicer replied that the head of state "said many times that he will not disclose his intentions".
The reference to procedural violations during the adoption of the bill gives the US president the opportunity not to sign it, even without the use of the veto power. On the same violations, by the way, the House of Representatives also pointed, motivating the delay on its part. But such technical disagreements are a shaky ground for long-term defense.
The situation for Trump is hopeless, and sooner or later he will still have to sign the law in order not to aggravate relations with the Congress in a knowingly losing case, Blokhin said.. "Therefore, sanctions will still pass, the whole question now is the degree of their rigidity. Trump is driven into a certain impasse, from which there is no way out, "he said..
According to the expert, any behavior of Russia for the American president will now have negative consequences. Even if Moscow tries to go in the wake of American foreign policy, to cooperate on the terms of the US, to agree to all the initiatives of Washington (which, of course, is unlikely), they will immediately say that Russia has concluded a secret deal with Trump, and all this normalization of relations will be directed against him.
If Moscow takes a tough stance and tries to draw some red lines in its relations with Washington, again, opponents of Trump say that Russians are a potential threat to the United States, and the president does not want to or can not cope with it. And it's not for nothing that Trump still so carefully avoids a clear indication of his position on Russia.
From the very beginning of its activity, the administration of the new US president on any issue has been subjected to incredible criticism. The only person who is not touched - vice president Michael Pence. He will automatically become president if the incumbent head of state still has to leave his post.
Another question arises: can Russia build relations and sign any agreements with a man who is constantly under the threat of impeachment?.
It turns out that in the current situation, under any scenario, Russia still loses.
Therefore, now, advised the expert, it is better to take a neutral position, not to react sharply to possible new sanctions, especially since the Russian economy has already been integrated into the sanctions regime, and it is not these restrictions that cause greater damage to it, but lower oil prices.
"We must wait until the storm is over, the situation will somehow normalize, and even then it will be possible to build relations with America," the political scientist sums up..