The European Union will collapse quickly and rigidly

26 June 2017, 08:57 | Policy
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The UK is counting on a "good deal" following the outcome of the talks on the withdrawal of the country from the EU, British Brexit Minister for Affairs David Davis said on Sunday in an interview with the BBC. He explained that he wants to achieve, in particular, an agreement on free trade and favorable customs agreements. According to the official, this is not only London that is interested, but also Brussels. True, Davis has made a reservation that he is not sure of success by 100%, because "it's negotiations," where there is always unpredictability.

Official negotiations on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU started on June 19 - almost exactly one year after the referendum, which resulted in a historic decision (it was held on June 23, 2016). It is expected that UK proposals to the European Union on Brexit will be published on Monday, and the next round of talks will be held on July 17. They will be held in two stages: first, the rules for the country's withdrawal from the commonwealth will be established, and only then will the discussion of the question of future economic relations begin.

Despite the fact that the process has begun, many politicians and economists both inside the EU and outside it still allow the possibility of a reversal. Among them, for example, the president of the European Council, Donald Tusk. "Some of my British friends ask if Brexit can be stopped or canceled," he said this week.. - I answer that the EU was built on dreams that seemed unattainable. So, who knows? You can say that I am a dreamer, but not the only ".

On the eve of the first day of negotiations, a representative from the European Union, Guy Verhofstadt, in an interview with Welt am Sonntag said that Britain can change its mind and not leave the EU. "This path remains open," he added.. But at the same time he stressed that there is no need to expect any concessions in the negotiations for London.

Did not rule out the preservation of Great Britain in the European Union and the well-known financier George Soros. In his opinion, Brexit is disastrous for all.

Voting for the withdrawal of the country from the European Union, the British believed that this divorce would not reduce their standard of living, the investor said.. And indeed during the past year there has been no noticeable deterioration, the British economy shows its resilience. However, its growth noticeably slowed, and inflation, on the contrary, accelerated. Salaries for rising prices can not keep pace, many families began to get into debt.

The moment of truth is rapidly approaching, warned Soros. Very soon, overburdened with debts, the British will have to adjust their consumer habits in favor of reducing consumption. And this means a reduction in demand, which contributed to the development of the economy.

The results of the referendum, of course, can not be abolished, but people can change their minds. The exit procedure will take at least five more years, and it is possible that the parties will again want to marry, and not having completed the divorce procedure, the financier summed up.

But the EU, by all accounts, does not intend to delay the matter. He will negotiate the UK's exit swiftly and intensively, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said at the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday. Such a strong desire to keep within the allotted two years simply does not leave room for maneuver, says Nikolai Topornin, assistant professor at the Department of European Law at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO).

According to him, talk about the abolition of Brexit was conducted from the very beginning of this story and is now somewhat strengthened because of the results of the parliamentary elections in Great Britain. Conservative Party, headed by Prime Minister Teresa May, failed to achieve a convincing victory. Moreover, she lost the parliamentary majority. Against this backdrop, there were allegations that Britain could take a step backward.

But the decision to withdraw the UK from the EU was not taken by the government, but by the people in a referendum. And it can only be canceled by the people in a second referendum. However, while this no one even stutters. The defeat of Teresa May in the election does not speak of the failure of the idea itself. The British simply did not like May's rhetoric about "tough Brexit", and by their vote they showed that they do not need such a plan.

"They want to maintain good relations with the EU and enjoy certain benefits of the common market. But the conservatives still remained the leading party, and Teresa May - the prime minister, "- recalled the expert.

As the opinion polls show, the British are ready for a second referendum only after negotiations to show whether they agree with their results or not. At the same time, more than 60% of Europeans believe that the EU should not make concessions to the UK. And many experts believe that Brexit will be tough or very tough, even regardless of the desire of the British premier.

But in any case it will take a lot of time and formalities to hold a referendum. For example, to create a special petition, collect a certain number of signatures, submit to the parliament, which will have to consider it and take an appropriate decision. Preparation for the referendum on the withdrawal was conducted almost a year. In general, as long as the court and the case, the divorce will already be legally formalized.

"The EU believes that they must meet up to March 29, 2019. During this time, a new referendum is unequivocally impossible to conduct. So I'm pretty sure that Britain will leave the EU in 2019. There is no way back, "stated Topornin.

"Brexit is not only the result of a single referendum. Here, the deeper contradictions have simply surfaced, and they have not disappeared anywhere, "added Sergei Utkin, head of the IMEMO RAS Strategic Evaluation Department.

- From a purely rational point of view, it should not all begin. But not everything in politics comes from this point of view. There are many other adventurous moments. Euroskepticism in Britain in the people has always been more common than in any other EU country. And this always left an imprint on the British policy in the European Union ".

According to the expert, there is some probability of avoiding the withdrawal of Britain from the EU, but a small.




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