Political reshuffle in Riyadh is a consequence of the problems accumulated in the kingdom, experts say..

According to the first deputy head of the international committee of the Council of Federation, Vladimir Jabarov, the replacement of the crown prince in Saudi Arabia (instead of the nephew of Mohammed bin Naif, the son of King Mohammed bin Salman) testifies to the shift of priorities towards strengthening the country's military potential. The decision of the king was influenced by the recent conflict with Qatar, the politician notes..

In turn, as the political analyst, the head of the department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan of the Institute of the CIS countries Andrei Grozin, stated to Utro, it is necessary to wait for more information on the new appointment and, most importantly, on the team that will now be reorganized and take leading positions with the new successor. But the meaning of this action is obviously connected with the internal political and intra-elite situation in the country, he said..

And one Qatar can not be called a "trigger" for these processes: experts have long noted that inside the ruling class of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has long been not all right, the rampart of the problems of Riyadh has been growing all the last years, the economic and social situation has systematically deteriorated. This was also imposed by external factors: the country is drawn into a rather hopeless conflict in Yemen - it draws resources from it, not to mention other problems, such as confrontation with Tehran, problems in Syria, issues related to inter-Arab dialogue and the mass of others.

"By and large, for the intra-elite unity of the kingdom, one Yemen has become so toxic an asset that this change occurred. It was necessary to somehow get out of this situation, and, apparently, it was decided to leave it through a change of personalities, "- says Andrei Grozin.

The predecessor, who was in charge of the Yemeni operation, obviously did not live up to the monarch's hopes. In addition, he had a large number of ill-wishers, rivals, who "sat down". In addition to the "heritage" in the form of Yemen, the new successor will have to confirm the viability of his and his clan also in other sectors, to which the significance for Riyadh applies not only and not so much Syria or Iran as the problems with the attempt to consolidate the informal intra-Arab coalition. Both the UAE, Kuwait and the weaker links of this unique union under the auspices of Riyadh are now awaiting from the Kingdom of Preferences, and the new potential leader will have to demonstrate his authority and new directions in politics and towards the Emirates, and in relation to the same Qatar.

Muhammad ibn Salman Al Saud. Photo: GLOBAL LOOK press / Rainer Jensen Observers admit that the new heir will try to take a tougher attitude towards Qatar, however, according to A. Grozin, a more plausible scenario. It is possible that now Riyadh can reconsider its previous position on Qatar, since detente through bilateral relations is more technological and meets the interests not only of the Saudis themselves, who are not in a better position to go into this conflict ahead and continue raising rates, But also of Washington. This would require much less resources, demonstrate goodwill and peacekeeping potential, would be more beneficial than aggravate the conflict, which, by and large, does not meet the interests of Saudi Arabia, as it creates another point of tension that requires the infusion of resources, the analyst said..

Much in these processes will depend on the team of the heir, but how this will all be realized, is not yet clear. It should be taken into account that the former leadership of the Ministry of Defense closely associated with the previous heir is quite influential people. Hardly it comes to brutal scenarios, but in the situation in which the elite of Saudi Arabia are now, some may try not to resolve, but to cut the knot of complex relations between the princes.

At the same time, it is unlikely that the aged monarch will want to leave the government of the kingdom against the unpleasant background of a potentially possible war of heirs, which until recently was difficult to contain - especially since the overwhelming majority of the elite are interested in the current appointment not affecting the stability of the intra-elite Systems. But whether it will be possible to realize it, it will become clear in the perspective of several days, the expert summed up.