According to Russian agencies, in the coming days, Foreign Minister of Qatar Mohammad bin Abdel Rahman bin Jassem Al-Thani will arrive in Moscow to discuss bilateral relations and the situation in the region with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov. Against the background of the outbreak of diplomatic scandal, the meeting will take place without the participation of President Putin, according to the agency.
According to Elena Suponina, the director of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, an expert of the INFRD, Moscow will not and should not be the only mediator in the settlement of the conflict between Qatar and other Arab countries, "but to participate in collective efforts so that if the conflicting parties are not reconciled At least somehow reduce the intensity of passions, Russia may well ".
Several questions arise immediately: what can Moscow really do, what options for the settlement of the crisis to offer, and, most importantly, why does it need it?.
Russia will have to intervene for two reasons, analysts say. The first lies on the surface and consists in the fact that Qatar participated in the transaction on the privatization of Rosneft,. "As far as he is a real participant, only super-insider owners who are directly related to the preparation of this deal know, but if Qatar becomes enfant terrible in world politics, it can cast a shadow over the deal. "Rosneft" is still one of the main Russian companies, and if the story line related to business relations with Qatar comes up, it is important for Russia to understand how to behave in this conflict, "said the director of the Center for Political Studies of the Financial University of Pavel Salin.
Secondly, Russia is now experiencing a shortage of instruments to influence the big world policy, the analyst notes.. In the post-Soviet space, there is a certain toolkit, although there are also many that are stalling, but in terms of influence on world politics with the collapse of the USSR, Russia has lost such instruments and is trying to return them to itself. One element of this strategy is the Russian operation in Syria. After the beginning of the operation in the Arab Republic of Russia received a serious argument for bargaining with the United States, recalled the expert. As for the current conflict, if the US spoils relations with Qatar, where a large US naval base is based, or can not help it in resolving the scandal, and Russia will help, it will give it serious levers for influencing world politics in general and the Middle East Region in particular.
"Therefore, before Russia now a serious challenge arose, but in the sense that it is called Anglo-Saxons - a challenge, that is simultaneously a problem, but a problem that can be converted into opportunities. I think that the visit of the Foreign Minister of Qatar to Russia is an attempt by Moscow to use this opportunity, converting into it a potential problem, "the analyst said..
Nevertheless, if the Russian Federation takes a pro-bureaucratic position, it runs the risk of quarreling with other parties to the conflict, so it's obviously premature to say that Moscow was lucky. "Yes, there are very serious risks, and I'm not sure that the Russian Federation will unequivocally take the side of Qatar. But in order to reconfigure your strategy, you still need personal communication with representatives of the Qatar elite, "- says Pavel Salin.
The meeting, most likely, will be of a closed nature, there will be few serious statements on its results, but very interesting events will unfold behind the scenes.
Specific proposals of Moscow now difficult to calculate, but there is a wide space for maneuvers, the expert points out.. Many still do not understand the reasons for the sharp escalation of the conflict between Qatar and its neighbors, and first we need to understand what it is caused by. Either these are subjective moments and personal ambitions - two young emir (Saudi Arabia and Qatar) find out the relations and distribute spheres of influence in the Middle East, or there is a second bottom in the conflict, something more systemic, serious interests of big players like the USA, Israel and other. In the second case, quite a different tool will be required, and the minister's visit could be connected with Russia's attempt to degrade this situation and understand the conflict's driving forces, Salin believes.. But, in general, if the first version of the quarrels between the monarchies is confirmed, Moscow can only try to minimize the potential information costs, so that some moments do not come to the surface, because it has no tools to influence the Saudis, unlike the US.
"This is the situation with Rosneft, and questions about where all this money went, or suddenly, God forbid, the information field will pop up that some part of the money from this transaction has gone to someone undesirable. The problem is also in Iran, but Moscow does not have such instruments of influence on Iran to offer it as a bargaining chip for the same Saudis to settle the conflict with Qatar. The connections of those players who are involved in this conflict are weak with Moscow, therefore, Moscow has little leverage, "the expert concluded..