The morning of Wednesday, June 7, in Tehran, ruptured terrorist attacks. Loud are not so much from the point of view of the destructive effect (although 13 dead and more than 40 wounded are also many), but because of the choice of goals. The terrorists attacked the Iranian parliament, the level of protection of which could be envied by the official residences of many more developed countries, and one of the shrines of the Muslim world - the mausoleum of Imam Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Responsibility was assumed by the terrorist group "Islamic State" banned in Russia,. But the deliberate exponent of the attacks, obviously designed for a wide resonance in the world media, makes one think that the real customer was someone else.

Leadership of the elite special unit of the Iranian army "Corps of the Guards of the Islamic Revolution" has already accused of involvement in terrorist attacks Saudi Arabia. The Russian experts also do not exclude this version, stipulating that the final conclusions can be made only after thorough investigation and official statements of the Iranian authorities. While the country's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, confined himself to a statement that such "explosions of crackers" will not break the will of the Iranian people.

The fact that the terrorist attacks in Tehran happened simultaneously with the blockade declared by Qatar by a number of Arab states is striking.. This is the case when the coincidence is extremely difficult to consider as accidental.

On Monday, June 5, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Egypt, Yemen, Libya and Maldives severed diplomatic relations with Doha. Later, they were joined by Mauritius, Mauritania and the Comoros.

The official reason for the demarche is the cooperation of Qatar with militants and the financing of terrorist groups. But the real discontent of the Sunni monarchies of the Persian Gulf, led by Saudi Arabia, according to most experts, causes the Qatari authorities to converge with their main geopolitical adversary Iran, as well as with Russia.

In the opinion of political scientist Karine Gevorgyan, Doha changed its position towards Tehran and Moscow in connection with its interests in Syria, through which Qatar makes its way to the European gas market. Earlier, she tried to make this "brute force" and, apparently, really supported a number of armed groups that fought against the troops of the official Syrian government. But I could not pass. In Saudi Arabia, it was expected that Qatar would give up its interests, but instead it turned 180%.

"If you can not take the territory of Syria, relatively speaking, as a vassal under your control, because there are other players, but they are ready to negotiate (I mean Russia, Iran and the Syrian leadership itself), why not go for it," - said the political scientist. She also noted that together the three countries, which are the largest gas suppliers on the world market, are quite strong and, apparently, they are located in a dialogue.

The expert drew attention to the good relations between Qatar and the US: the US administration at the very beginning of the diplomatic scandal in the Persian Gulf supported Doha and offered its assistance. On the territory of the country is the US Air Force base with the largest contingent of American troops in the Middle East. In addition, Turkey remains Qatar's ally in the region and quite persistently offers mediation in resolving the conflict that has arisen.

"It means that some very new configurations are dancing out," stated Gevorgyan. - Emir of Qatar Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani has grounds and sufficient motives for acting separately, and in this sense he took a risk. He clearly marked his positions and clearly shows that he is ready to participate in the processes not in the format that existed earlier ".

The self-will of Doha, which began to pursue its own policy, without regard to Riyadh, its activity against Russia and Iran, and success on the "American track" certainly irritates Saudi Arabia. The rivalry between the two states in the political arena began a long time ago. But it is not entirely clear what exactly triggered the sudden and sharp break in relations.

Just two weeks before the scandal, the Emir of Qatar (later accused of aiding terrorists) was present in Riyadh at a meeting of members of the Muslim coalition against the IG and terrorism with US President Donald Tramp. However, it is possible that this visit of the American leader provoked an aggravation of the situation.

On the one hand, Trump clearly identified Iran as the main source of evil in the region and called for joint efforts to isolate it. On the other hand, as recalled "Утро" a senior researcher of the analytical center of the Institute of International Studies MGIMO Leonid Gusev, during this visit, he concluded a deal to supply arms to Saudi Arabia for more than $ 100 billion.

"Although the Americans in Qatar and the military base have, and the cooperation in different military spheres was very strong, now Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf countries that are in the forefront - both the UAE and Kuwait - have come first.. And Qatar was a little backward, so this situation could happen, "he suggested..

Doha, in turn, further intensified its efforts towards Moscow and Tehran. According to the newspaper Kommersant, in late May, the website of the Qatar news agency (QNA) appeared on behalf of the emir of the country, in which he allegedly called Iran a guarantor of stability in the region and called for establishing ties with him. And although later it was announced that the published information was not true, and the agency's site was hacked by hackers, the Saudis and their allies found these refutations unconvincing.

And it is likely that the true purpose of the terrorist attacks in Tehran is to refute its image as a guarantor of stability, and to try to clash Iran with potential allies.

"The only thing we can say for sure is that both in the Arabian Peninsula and in the Middle East the situation is swinging, and in the worst direction. It seems that after all the world is being pushed to the economy of war, and to such wars in different forms, which can later be called the third world, "says Karine Gevorgyan.

Leonid Gusev, in turn, said that the diplomatic conflict in the Persian Gulf will not go too far.

"Still, they are all developing in about the same vein (with the exception of the position on Iran), and the same for the United States, and Qatar, and the rest of the Gulf countries were in the first place for cooperation," he explains.. - Therefore, I think, after some time, the relationship will improve ".

According to him, an important indicator in this situation is the reaction of oil traders. Prices for black gold a little raised at the time of the scandal, but then fell again. If speculators had expected a catastrophic development of events, quotations would have jumped up and stayed there for quite some time.