Head of the CIS Antiterrorist Center Colonel-General Andrei Novikov said that the "Islamic state" (banned in the Russian Federation) seeks to unleash an "asymmetric war", the specifics of which prompts the Russian Federation to search for adequate systemic countermeasures. "The current development of events suggests that in the event of an unfavorable development of the operational situation in any of the Central Asian states, it is likely to talk about a joint military-police operation within the CIS," Novikov noted..

According to the political scientist, the historian, the president of the Moscow center for the study of public law Ajdar Kurtov, this development was initially predictable. "IG can not win the battle and survive in a head-on collision, purely on the fronts. Now they are inferior to the territory, they are being knocked out of important settlements, it is a question of the complete loss of the second "capital" of the unrecognized "state", Mosul, and the preparations for the storming of the first "capital", Rakki. The impossibility of victory on the fronts compels the IG to strike not in Syria or Iraq, but elsewhere, "the expert said in an interview with" Morning ".

Asymmetric war is a war in other ways, methods, in other parts of the world. First of all, this implies the commission of terrorist acts far beyond the main theater of military operations (t. Territory of Syria and Iraq). In the risk zone, all countries that are somehow involved in anti-Guilian actions, and their list is great. To revenge extremists can in the countries of Europe, Central Asia, in the USA, in the Russian Federation - anywhere.

The answer to such a threat is obvious, the expert believes: this is the improvement of anti-terrorism measures, prevention measures, the strengthening of the work of special services to penetrate into secret cells of terrorists, the strengthening of control on important sites that can be subjected to terrorist attack, increased vigilance and, at the same time, Military actions in Syria and Iraq, as well as political dialogue within the framework of the Geneva and Astana formats.

At the same time, as the experience of recent years shows, it's almost impossible to win the "terrorist war" of singles: before them, unfortunately, sometimes the special services and other power structures. Experts have repeatedly recognized that there is no universal recipe in the battle against terror: it was, is and will be, any madman can explode in the metro, and it is often difficult to calculate it. Does this imply an imminent victory for terrorists in the "asymmetric" war that they declared?.

Azhdar Kurtov does not agree with this. "And what is victory? This is the achievement of goals. Explosions are a means, and the aim is to continue to exist in the territories now controlled by the IG, this very pseudo-state. It also arose with a definite purpose, to create a caliphate, to expand its borders, to annex new territories to it, and this was achieved both by military actions in these territories and by terrorist acts. A successful blast in itself is not yet a victory. In the end, there have been many explosions and political murders in the history of mankind, but terrorists, as a rule, did not come to power, did not establish their procedures for long periods of time and did not create their state formations. IG in this sense, a small exception to the rules, "- said the analyst.

Thus, if the "Caliphate" does not stand, then it is not necessary to talk about victory, although new casualties on the part of the civilian population in this war are, of course, inevitable. Terrorism and radical Islamism as phenomena will not disappear anywhere, perhaps even they will become new adherents, such are the realities of the modern era. But the immediate task is to liquidate the IG as an education in a certain territory, with its institutions of public authority, armed detachments, laws, currency - t. With signs of statehood, the interlocutor of "Utra".

By the way, earlier experts did not exclude that in the future IG can "acclimatize" - reject terrorism as an ideology, leaving only the properties of statehood. Such a "civilized" IG itself could resist extremists, and heads of state would have to contact its leaders on an official level, observers.

History knows such examples, if not for one "but", notes Kurtov. For example, in the Middle Ages there was a state of Ismaili Assassins, which for some time terrorized the surrounding world, and then was destroyed by the Tatar-Mongolian invasion.

But in the present era, especially now, it is hardly possible, the expert is sure: against the IG, although not consolidated, but diverse forces of the world's leading countries, including the countries of the region. Therefore the moment of legalization is missed. "Theoretical possibility existed, but there is no real, for many reasons. And they do not want to: they are defeated on the fronts, they are massively destroying their own supporters as soon as they are suspected of desertion, "the analyst concluded.