After the presidential elections in France, it became possible to give an impulse to the "Norman" format, which for several months has been going through a period of stagnation. The last meeting of the parties at the highest level took place more than six months ago - in October. The key achievement of those negotiations was the agreement on the harmonization of the "road map" of the Minsk Agreements. But attempts to come to an agreement on key points were expected to fail - Ukraine and Russia diametrically opposed interpreted a document signed during a large-scale hostilities in fact out of despair.
The election of French critic of the Kremlin Emmanuel Macron gives the second chance to the "Norman" four. This is a kind of natural format reloading. However, whether something "fresh blood" will change at the negotiating table is a big question. What to expect from Macron on the peaceful front of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict - the "Observer".
Ukraine is on the Macron agenda Even before the inauguration, Macron clearly, although not in detail, has outlined his position on the situation in the Donbass: the way to peace is the Minsk agreements; Sanctions with the Russian Federation will be lifted only after they have been carried out; "Norman" format to be; Dialogue with Moscow in any case is necessary. All these messages the head of France subsequently repeated and expanded, including during a press conference following the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Especially important for Ukraine are two Makron sends. First, he announced his intention to activate the "Norman" format. Secondly, confirmed the readiness voiced by G7, to expand sanctions against Russia in case of escalation of the situation in the Donbass, which may be a factor restraining Moscow.
During the meeting between Macron and Putin, the Ukrainian issue was one of the main issues, along with the situation in Syria and bilateral relations. This is a positive signal for Kiev. The French president showed that the settlement of the conflict in the Donbass is on his agenda, and he is going to take an active position in this direction. In part, this means strengthening Ukraine in the "Norman" format, since Francois Hollande echoed Berlin's voice throughout the peace process. Macron, judging by the latest statements, wants to try on a more active role.
Tactical stumbling block Of course, this all does not solve the main problems of the peace process. The "Norman" format is likely to revive, but that does not mean that it will become effective. Tactical stumbling block is the roadmap of agreements. There is no reason to assume that Russia is ready to accept the Ukrainian version. An alternative way to neutralize the discrepancies in the "Minsk" the parties do not have. Therefore, without new approaches to negotiations, the parties are doomed to walk in a circle.
Moscow has repeatedly hinted that it relies on resolving the issue bypassing the "Norman" format. For example, the other day Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said that Moscow is ready to start bilateral negotiations with Ukraine on Ukraine - that is, without the participation of Kiev and Europe. True, the curator of this topic in the State Department more than four months after the change of power in the US has not yet been appointed. Which, by the way, is also very indicative in the context of the presence / absence of a strategy for the current administration.
A strange meeting Despite Makron's clear position on the conflict in the Donbass, the very fact of a personal meeting with Putin two weeks after the inauguration gives rise to more questions than answers. The scandals surrounding Russia's intervention in the election campaign, the Kremlin's apparent stake in the ultra-right Marin Le Pen, were not a good foundation for such speedy bilateral negotiations.
"From my point of view, the meeting is somewhat strange. It's unclear what purpose Macron put, why he was in such a hurry. What is it? The zeal of the newly consecrated priest, who hastened to meet either with a key adversary, or with one of the most influential politicians in the world? It seems to me that Macron was not ready for this meeting. He is president without a government, without a parliamentary majority. I would not rush to make far-reaching conclusions. Some impressions of himself he confirmed. He is a person oriented to Europe. On the remaining issues, obviously, his position is only forming. And I would very carefully make predictions. The more rigid position of Macron would not have been rushed to meet with Putin. And this decision makes you think, "- said in an interview with the" Observer "the ex-consul general of Ukraine in Edinburgh and Istanbul, the chairman of the board of the fund" Maidan of Foreign Affairs "Bogdan Yaremenko.
Most likely, such an operational meeting was a two-vector signal from Paris. On the one hand, Makron not in words, but in practice demonstrated his willingness to dialogue. On the other hand, he made it clear that from now on Paris does not want to be on the sidelines of Berlin and aims to play with Germany on equal terms.
As reported by the "Observer", a telephone conversation was announced in the "Norman" format.
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